海外之声｜渣打银行亚洲首席：亚洲将贡献全球60%的经济增长

观点速递

本文作者是渣打银行亚洲首席经济学家David Mann。原文摘自OMFIF Bulletin（2017年1月）。OMFIF是一家总部位于伦敦的全球金融智库。

作者提出，自2008 年至2009年金融危机以来，与美欧经济增长的疲软状态相反，亚洲的增长相当强劲，这主要是由于消费和投资产生的国内需求让亚洲经济更具韧性。据渣打银行的计算，2017年此种情形还将继续，使亚洲经济增长占到全球增长总量的60％左右。

最后本文作者指出，因为高通胀以及为避免与美国产生分歧带来的压力，宽松的货币政策的时代在亚洲已经结束。调整汇率通常是亚洲针对美国利率上涨的主要对策，预计在2017年也会采用这一手段。因此，未来亚洲货币状况的改善更可能是因为汇率，而非政策降息。

中文译文如下：

亚洲将贡献全球60%的经济增长

作者：David Mann

翻译：王逸如

审校：肖柏高

亚洲已经减少了与西方的经济交流，但依然存在金融上的联系。自2008 年至2009年金融危机以来，与美欧经济增长的疲软状态相反，亚洲的增长相当强劲。

由消费和投资产生的国内需求让亚洲经济更具韧性，缓冲了亚洲易受外部贸易影响的风险。根据渣打银行的计算，2017年这一情况还将继续，使亚洲经济增长占到全球增长总量的60％左右。

经济展望

在唐纳德·特朗普当选总统的情况下，私人部门投资和贸易上的前景并不明朗。亚洲与美国的经济往来远不如十年前密切，但密切的经济联系在短期内可能阻碍亚洲央行采取宽松的货币政策，因为采取与美国相左的货币政策并不容易，若汇率仍然和11月8日大选以来一样不稳定，就更是如此。

在对外贸易方面，由于受出口基数和价格效应的影响，亚洲2017年的出口可能迎来惊喜。去年基数之低将使2017年出口的同比增长更显可观。此外，出口价格的部分回升可能提高名义出口额。即使价格停止上涨，出口额也可能在2017年恢复增长。这些因素预计将在第二季度之前开始显现。因美国要恢复通胀，第二季度也将是亚洲新兴经济体的货币跌至最低的时候，这将进一步推动出口。

在全国人大召开前期，中国经济将在2017年继续保持稳定增长。许多长期性的挑战依然存在，包括杠杆率过高、产能过剩以及人口老龄化（在20年后将变得更加棘手）。然而，在全国人大这一重要政治会议之前，这些问题预计不会拉低当前百分之六点多的增长速度，但可能在未来会变得更加严重。

货币宽松政策的时代宣告终结

因为高通胀以及为避免与美国产生分歧带来的压力，宽松的货币政策的时代在亚洲已经结束。据渣打银行预计，2017年外部需求依旧疲软，而且由于美元融资成本上升及美元走强，财政状况将更为紧张。虽然通胀率可能上升，但预计仍将低于长期平均水平。调整汇率通常是亚洲针对美国利率上涨的主要对策，预计在2017年也会采用这一手段。因此，货币状况的改善更可能是因为汇率，而非政策降息。

印度是一个特例。去年11月初印度宣布了一令人震惊的举措：它将废止85%的流通货币，以打击非正规经济，但这导致现金紧缺，并阻碍经济活动，因此未来两年印度的政策利率和GDP增长的预期也随之下调。

试想，若占GDP总量2%-3%的未纳税经济中大部分现金消失，这将给印度经济带来巨大冲击。在这种情况下，最近公共部门的工资上涨和良好的季风降雨难以像之前预期的那样推动经济增长。市场正在等着更多意料之外的政策出现。

英文译文如下：

In defence of monetary financing

Central banks and fiscal authorities must defy convention

By Riaz Riazuddin in Karachi

Fri 2 Dec 2016

Asia has reduced its economic exposure to the West, but financial linkages remain. The region has achieved relatively strong growth since the 2008-09 financial crisis, in contrast to persistently weak growth in the US and Europe.

Domestic demand from both consumers and investment is supporting the resilience, cushioning the region against its high exposure to external trade. All this should continue in 2017, helping Asia account for around 60% of global growth, according to Standard Chartered calculations.

Economic outlook

Markets are wary of the uncertain outlook for private sector investment and trade in the light of Donald Trump’s election. Asia’s economic linkages to the US are much weaker compared with a decade ago, yet remaining linkages may prevent Asian central banks from easing policy in the short term. It will be difficult to diverge from US monetary policy, especially if exchange rates remain as vulnerable as they have been since the 8 November election.

On external trade, there is room for positive surprises in Asia’s 2017 export data because of base and price effects. Last year’s low base should flatter year-on-year export growth in 2017. In addition, a partial recovery in export prices is likely to boost exports in nominal terms. Even with no further price rises, export values are likely to return to growth in 2017. These factors should start to materialise by the second quarter. This is also when emerging market Asian currencies are expected to be at their weakest in response to US reflation, further boosting exports.

China’s growth will remain steady in the run-up to the National Party Congress in late 2017. Many longer-term challenges remain, including excess leverage, overcapacity and the demographic drag that will become more problematic in the 2020s. However, these issues are not expected to reduce growth below the current rate of above 6% ahead of such a politically important event for the Chinese Communist party. This, however, may mean more pain later

Monetary easing has run its course

Monetary easing is over across Asia, mainly because of higher inflation and pressure to avoid divergence with the US. Standard Chartered forecasts project still-sluggish external demand in 2017, and tighter financial conditions due to upward pressure on dollar funding costs and dollar strength. While inflation is likely to rise, it is expected to remain below longer-term averages.

Exchange rates have typically been Asia’s main mechanism of adjustment to higher US rates, and this is expected to be repeated in 2017. The loosening of monetary conditions may therefore happen via the exchange rate channel, rather than policy rate cuts.

India is a significant exception. The shock announcement in early November that it will eliminate 85% of currency in circulation to crack down on the informal economy is causing a cash crunch and hindering economic activity. Expectations for India’s policy rate and GDP growth over the next two years have been adjusted down to reflect the consequences.

Assuming a large portion of the cash in the untaxed economy simply vanishes, this could be worth as much as 2-3% of GDP – a major shock to the system. In this context, the recent public sector salary rise and good monsoon rains are unlikely to be as supportive of growth as originally anticipated. Markets are on the lookout for more surprise announcements.

David Mann is Chief Economist for Asia at Standard Chartered. This article appeared in OMFIF Bulletin (January 2017). The Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF) is a global financial think-tank, headquartered in London.

文章编辑  张晨希

图文整理  张晨希

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