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海外之声 | “一带一路”倡议下的货币与金融合作（中英双语）

Original 2018-01-14 国际货币研究所 IMI财经观察

观点速递

本文作者是胡安·卡洛斯·马丁内斯·奥利瓦，IMI国际委员会成员，意大利银行经济、数据与研究部高级主管。本文为7月15-16日作者在“2017年国际货币论坛”的讲话稿。由中国人民大学主办，中国人民大学财政金融学院、中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心协办，中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）承办的“2017国际货币论坛暨《人民币国际化报告》发布会”于2017年7月在北京开幕。本次会议主题为“金融深化、金融稳定与货币国际化”。

一带一路属于综合经济战略的一部分，其它要素还包括亚洲基础设施投资银行的创立与人民币的国际化。一带一路基金将由中国外汇储备、官方投资和信贷机构支持。而除此以外，亚投行将会利用金融市场工具来获取私有资源用于基础设施建设。此举有利于人民币国际化的形成，但不能曲解其政治安全含义。一带一路致力于改善基础设施和贸易网络，从而有利于世界经济整体繁荣。如果得以成功实施，一带一路可促进对话与和平共处，造福整个国际社会。

中文译文如下：

“一带一路”倡议下的货币与金融合作

胡安·卡洛斯·马丁内斯·奥利瓦

翻译：郑泽

审校：陆可凡

2013年，习近平主席正式提出新丝绸之路，又称一带一路倡议。对中西方分析师与学者来说，这仍是热议话题。从大的发达经济体到小的发展中经济体，越来越多的国家对于加入倡议兴趣浓厚，而一带一路可谓是文明史上最具雄心的倡议之一。

一带一路倡议致力于复兴横跨欧亚非的古代陆上和海上丝绸之路。古代丝绸之路在2100多年前的东汉时期开始兴旺。而新丝绸之路将会建设更多的道路（包括铁路、港口、管线）和互联互通所需的基础设施。

通过古丝绸之路，中国的产品源源不断地销往阿富汗、印度、波斯乃至罗马帝国。丝绸之路也产生了重大的文化和社会影响，对佛教、印度文化和希腊艺术的传播做出了重大贡献，增强了当时已知地区之间的相互理解与和平共处。

当今的一带一路沿线国家有65个（包括中国），总人口占全球总量的60%，经济总产出占全球的30%。一带一路的资金来源于中国设立的400亿人民币的新丝绸之路基金。基金由中国外汇储备、官方投资和信贷机构支持。此外，去年5月，习主席承诺大幅加强对新丝绸之路的资金支持，包括：对丝绸之路基金增加1000亿人民币投资；国家开发银行提供2500亿元贷款；中国进出口银行提供1300亿元贷款；对新丝绸之路沿线的发展中国家与国际机构提供600亿元援助。金融机构会将其海外人民币基金业务扩展至共计3000亿人民币。一带一路属于综合经济战略的一部分，其它要素还包括亚洲基础设施投资银行的创立与人民币的国际化。

亚投行的发展需要获得私人投资，这就意味着亚投行将会利用金融市场工具来获取私有资源用于基础设施建设。此举将会使全亚洲的私人储蓄流动起来，实现市场秩序，从而改善项目质量。

亚投行的初始资金主要来源于中国大量的美元储备。故可以预测亚投行未来的融资活动将会日益依赖人民币。尽管项目的推动和审核在北京总部进行，但通过市场动用民间资源显然将在亚洲主要金融中心——香港和新加坡进行。这将会进一步增强人民币的声望。

与世界银行国际融资公司相似，世界银行的私营部门通过发行地方币种的债券，帮助发展国内资本市场。亚投行可能成为强有力的工具，推动人民币未来在国际市场中的流通。相应地，人民币在国际金融市场中的地位提升也将增强亚投行的作用，有利于其开展行动。而一带一路为了帮助基础设施需求可观的国家，也在很大程度上依赖于用人民币计价的贷款，因而将与人民币的国际化相辅相成。

人民币作为国际货币的迅速崛起及加入特别提款权币种，展现了全球经济关系变化之快。一带一路、亚投行与人民币在国际市场中的迅速崛起相结合，为人民币成为东亚地区主要区域性货币和贸易投资的有力载体提供了良机。从地区层面来看，这个结果是有利而理想的，有利于国际货币体系的整体稳定。

分析师与媒体越来越关注一带一路的政治与安全含义，尤其在西方，有时将其视为中国增强在本地区地缘政治影响的工具。

然而，不能就此得出结论说，中国正在试图单边地创立泛亚洲经济与体制秩序，以实现其雄心。

回顾过去20年间地区主义在亚洲的发展，就可以看到：1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机过后，亚洲国家致力于团结，寻找共同解决方案以来应对问题。毋庸置疑，1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机让人们更加意识到：国际社会并不重视东南亚的经济问题，从而增强了亚洲国家之间的区域联系。

整个东亚地区面临的严重经济问题导致各国开始寻求区域性解决方案，也是泛亚洲观点发展的主要因素。美国的坚定盟友日本有着明确的太平洋国家身份，长期以来却一直在酝酿“各种各样的泛亚洲思想与意识形态”，特别是在实现货币一体化方面（2015，费根鲍姆）。事实上,正是日本已中止的建立亚洲货币基金的倡议促成了《清迈协议》，在东南亚与东北亚国家之间建立了双边贸易关系。

一带一路在经济与地缘政治层面的潜在影响向许多人表明，中国的计划与70年前美国的马歇尔计划可能有巨大的相似之处。有些观察者认为，中国的丝绸之路倡议类似马歇尔计划，不仅覆盖的地域广泛，而且综合了经济政治与国家安全方面的考量”。

事实上，雄心勃勃、目光长远的计划通常基于复杂的结构，包含覆盖各个领域的目标，融合短期战略与深谋远虑。这些计划有时逐渐变化，以适应不断变化的环境。

马歇尔计划的构想最初是为了在二战后恢复欧洲经济，但同时也是为了阻止欧洲饥民受到苏联的影响。因此，可将其视为美国加强在西欧地缘政治影响的工具。

尽管一带一路与马歇尔计划有明显的共同之处，但仍需指出，一带一路倡议显然更迎合21世纪全球经济的需要，而非冷战时代的两极世界。

的确，在中国的决策者看来，一带一路计划基于著名的“和平共处五项原则”，即互相尊重领土主权，互不侵犯，互不干涉内政，平等互利，和平共处。一带一路从根本上说是合作性倡议，以和谐与包容原则为基础，倡导文明间的互相包容，尊重各国不同的发展道路与发展模式，寻求互利互惠与合作的“最大公约数”，充分发挥各方智慧、创造性、力量和潜力。

毋庸置疑，以上的种种原则在实现的过程中可能障碍重重。例如，一些国家面临着政治不稳定、腐败以及恐怖主义的威胁。

然而，如果看向积极的一面，则一带一路雄心勃勃的建设计划无论是对中国还是对全世界而言，可能都意味着良机。一带一路是现代化的载体，向世界许多落后地区传达市场经济原则，有助于促进这些地区的繁荣从而实现政治稳定。针对潜在的安全隐患，一带一路的目标可能为整个国际社会带来实质性益处。

面对经济萧条和各种性质的安全威胁，世界正在苦苦挣扎。一带一路致力于改善基础设施和贸易网络，从而有利于整体繁荣。如果得以成功实施，一带一路可促进对话与和平共处，造福整个国际社会。

英文原文如下：

Currency and Financial Cooperation under Belt and Road Initiative

This article is based on a speech by Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva on the 2017 International Monetary Forum on 15-16 July in Beijing.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),officially announced by President Xi Jinping in 2013 is a top subject among both Chinese and Western analysts and scholars. Agrowing number of countries - ranging from large developed to small developing economies -have displayed deep interest in joining a project which might be listed among the most ambitious in the history of civilization.

BRI aims at reviving the ancient trade maritime and overland routes, “the Silk Road”, that connected Asia, Africa and Europe,whose control and broader use started in later Han period twenty-one centuries ago. The New Silk Road will create roads – and railways, ports, pipelines, and the other necessities that make up an inter-connected region.

Traded goods from China found their way to Afghanistan, India, Persia, and eventually Rome. It is not rhetorical to say that there was also an outstanding cultural and social impact, since the Silk Road contributed to the spreading of Buddhism, Indian literature and Hellenistic art, and favored mutual understanding and pacific coexistence among countries from different parts of the then-known world.

As of today BRI comprehends65 nations, including China, which account for 60% of the world’s population and 30% of its output. It will be financially supported by aNew Silk Road Fund of $40 billion, backed by China’s foreign exchange reservesand by Chinese official investment and lending agencies.Moreover, last May President Xi pledged a massive funding boost to BRI which includes an extra 100 billion yuan into the existing BRI’s Fund; 250 billion yuan in loans from China Development Bank; 130 billion yuan in loans from Export-Import Bank of China; 60 billion yuan in aid to developing countries and international institutions in new Silk Road countries. Financial institutions have been encouraged to expand their overseas yuan fund businesses to the tune of 300 billion.

BIS can be viewed within a comprehensive economic strategy, where the other elements are the establishment of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the internationalization of renminbi.

The AIIB’s expanding activity will require access to private funding; this means that the AIIB will tap private resources via financial market instruments to collect infrastructure funding. Such a move would allow the mobilization of private savings across Asia and impose market discipline, thus improving the quality of the project financed.

While the initial endowment is largely based on China’s huge stock of US dollar reserves, one may easily foresee that the financing activity of the AIIB will increasingly be based on RMB operations. The mobilization of private resources via the private market, while being promoted and scrutinized from headquarters in Beijing, will obviously be handled in the main Asian financial centers of Hong Kong and Singapore. This will have relevant implications for the prestige of the RMB.

In the same fashion as the International Financing Corporation, the private sector arm of the World Bank Group, which helps developing domestic capital markets by issuing local currency debt, the AIIB might prove a powerful tool in developing the use of the Chinese currency in international markets in the future. Conversely, a growing presence of RMB on the international financial market would enhance and facilitate AIIB activity and presence across the world. BIS, on its side, by largely relying on yuan-denominated loans in favor of countries with sizeable infrastructural needs, will positively interact with the process of renminbi internationalization.

The rapid rise of the RMB as an international currency, up to the status of a currency in the SDR basket, shows how fast global economic relations may change in the global economy. The combination of BIS, AIIB, and of a fast spreading RMB in the international markets provide good chances for the RMB to become the major regional currency in East Asia, and a powerful vehicle for trade and investment across the area. Such an outcome should be viewed as helpful and desirable at the regional level, and a source of stability for the overall international monetary system.

A growing attention is devoted by analysts and media, particularly in the West, on the political and security perspective of OBOR, which is sometimesviewed as a Chinese tool to enhance its geopolitical influence in the region.

It would be nonetheless wrong toconcludethat Chinais unilaterally trying to create a pan-Asian economic and institutional order as a response to its hegemonic ambitions.

If we look at how Asian regionalism has developed in the last two decades, one finds that in the aftermath of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-1998, countries in the region have acted under the common driver of achieving cohesion and finding collective solutions to common problems. There is little doubt that the 1997-1998 financial crisis contributed to fueling the impression that the international community was giving little attention to Southeast Asia’s economic problems, thus reinforcing regional connections among Asian countries.

The severe economic troubles that the whole region experienced may be seen as a main cause for East Asia’s quest for a local solution, and for the development of pan-Asian views in the region.Even Japan, a close US ally with a strong trans-Pacific identity, look favorably at pan-Asian ideas and ideologies particularly on the issue of monetary integration. As a matter of fact, it was the aborted Japan’s initiative to create an Asian monetary fund that gave origin to the Chiang Mai Initiative, which established bilateral swaps among Southeast and Northeast Asian countries.

The potential impact of OBOR, on both economic and geopolitical grounds, has suggested to many that the Chinese vision might have profound similarities with the US Marshall plan for Europe seventy years ago. Many have pointed out that, not differently than Marshall plan, China’s BIS goes far beyond the simple geographic range, to include economic, political and national security considerations.

As a matter of fact, ambitious and visionary plans are often based on a complex architecture, encompass different targets covering a broad range of fields, and are grounded on both a short term strategy and a long term vision. They sometimes experience a gradual evolution, following their ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

The Marshall plan was initially conceived as a means to rebuild the European economy after the Second World War. But it was also meant to prevent the risk that Europe’s starving populations might fall under the influence of Soviet Union. It therefore might be seen as a tool to reinforce the geopolitical influence of the United States in Western Europe.

In spite of the apparent similarities between the concepts of OBOR and the Marshall plan, it is worth stressingalso the differences which make OBOR a vision clearly more consistent with the needs of the global economy of 21st century than with the bipolar world of the past Cold War era.

Indeed, according to the Chinese planners, OBOR is based on the well-known Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence: mutual respect for each other's sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual non-aggression, mutual non-interference in each other's internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and peaceful coexistence. A fundamentally cooperative initiative, OBOR is meant to be based on principles of harmony and inclusiveness. It advocated tolerance among civilizations, and is meant to respects the paths and modes of development chosen by different countries. It seeks mutual benefit and the "biggest common denominator" for cooperation so as to give full play to the wisdom and creativity, strengths and potentials of all parties.

Needless to say, the above principles might find practical obstacles in their implementation. For example, a number of the countries encompassed by the initiative are affected by political instability, corruption and the threat of terrorism.

If one looks at the positive side, however,OBOR’s ambitious construction may represent a great opportunity not only for China but for the world at large. By representing a vehicle of modernization conveying market economy principles in several backward areas of the world, OBOR can be viewed as a means to introduce prosperity and therefore political stability in such areas. For its potential security implications OBOR goals should be viewed as bringing tangible benefits to the whole international community.

In a world struggling against economic stagnation, and security threats of various nature, a project aimed at boosting infrastructures and trade networks, and therefore overall prosperity; a project endeavoring the enhancement of mutual dialogue and peaceful coexistence may prove, if successfully implemented, as potentially beneficial for the overall international community.

Juan Carlos Martinez Oliva, Member of IMI International Committee, Senior Director for Economics,Statistics, and Research, Bank of Italy

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