海外之声丨芬兰央行行长谈货币政策新路径

导读

全球经济正在迅速复苏，尽管并不均衡。欧洲央行预测欧元区经济将显著反弹，今年实际GDP将增长5%，明年增长4.6%，限制措施可以在下半年快速放松。

危机最严重的阶段结束后，欧洲央行管理委员会将继续货币政策战略审查。价格稳定、货币政策工具及其影响、数字化、金融稳定、全球化和气候变化等主题仍是未来研究的重要课题。战略最重要的是对通胀目标的新定义及其将如何应用于反应函数：通过在中期追求2%的对称通胀目标来保持价格稳定。对称性意味着管理委员会认为较慢和较快的通胀都不受欢迎。宽松的货币政策将继续下去，以适应欧元区经济反弹和不确定性。PEPP的净资产购买速度比前两个季度略低，可以保持有利的融资条件。芬兰银行评估欧洲央行管理委员会的目标函数或损失函数，结果表明在旧的价格稳定定义下，损失函数是不对称的，意味着相比于低通胀，高通胀更不受欢迎。而新战略下对称的2%通胀目标可以缓冲通货紧缩风险，给货币政策提供更多空间，控制通胀率过高带来的成本。另一个热门话题是货币政策与不平等之间的相互作用。不平等现象主要是由结构性因素导致的，货币政策通过两个主要渠道影响不平等：收入渠道和财富渠道。低收入家庭的工资和就业对商业周期更敏感，放松货币政策可以减少收入不平等。家庭的商业和金融收入对货币政策的反应比劳动收入更敏感，宽松的货币政策会使借款人更轻松，但会对富裕家庭的储蓄产生负面影响。最后，欧洲央行同样也要促进有关气候变化问题目标的达成，将气候模型纳入经济模型，促进与气候变化相关风险的衡量和披露，以便进行风险管理、投资活动和货币政策操作。

作者 | 奥利·雷恩，芬兰央行行长

英文原文如下：

Olli Rehn: New avenues for monetary policy

Opening remarks by Mr Olli Rehn, Governor of the Bank of Finland, at the Bank of Finland - Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) Joint Conference "New avenues for monetary policy", 10 September 2021.

Ladies & Gentlemen, Dear Friends,

Good afternoon and welcome to this conference on New Avenues for Monetary Policy, which is jointly organized by the Bank of Finland and the Centre for Economic Policy Research.

Our collaboration with CEPR in organizing annual conferences has a long and successful history, for which we are grateful.

We are very happy and honoured to have several leading experts in the field to address us at this conference, including Alan Blinder, Markus Brunnermeier, MikhaelGolosov, Ethan Ilzetzki, Loretta Mester and Michael Woodford. The scientific committee have done an excellent job in putting together a high-quality programme for the next two days.

This conference takes place against the backdrop of the COVID-19 pandemic, from which the global economy is now recovering rapidly, if unevenly. In the euro area yesterday's fresh projection by the ECB foresees, the economy is rebounding significantly this year on the back of the expected re-opening of the economy, strengthened policy support and economic recovery in the rest of the world. Real GDP is projected to grow by 5% this year and 4.6% next year. The key underlying assumption for the current view is that containment measures can be relaxed rapidly in the second half of the year.

With regard to inflation, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices is forecast to peak in the fourth quarter of this year, with annual inflation reaching an average of 2.2% this year, supported by temporary factors, such as strong base effects caused by energy inflation and the German VAT rate reversal, and an increase in input costs related to supply bottlenecks. In 2022, inflation is expected to be 1.7% as the temporary factors fade, and stay at 1.5% in 2023.

After the worst crisis phase was over, the ECB Governing Council continued its once-postponed review of monetary policy strategy. The review, the first since 2003, was concluded in July this year. High-quality analysis and extensive dialogue between research and policy-making were crucial for reaching pertinent conclusions.

We reviewed the definition of price stability, monetary policy instruments and their effects – both the main effects and potential side effects – as well as our communication practices. We also assessed the importance of digitalization, financial stability, globalization and climate change from the perspective of monetary policy. Needless to say, these themes continue to be important topics for future research. Many of these themes will be also addressed at this conference.

The most important revision to our strategy is the new definition of our inflation target and how it will be applied in our future decision-making; that is (in 'centralbankese') the reaction function. According to the new strategy, price stability is best maintained by pursuing at a 2% symmetric inflation target over the medium term.

The old inflation target of 'below, but close to 2%', which was valid until July 2021, was less precise, and open to interpretation. In particular, this former definition had a streak of asymmetry, and the quantification of 2% may have appeared more of a ceiling than a central target.

The new 2% inflation target is symmetric and unambiguous. Symmetry means that the Governing Council considers both slower and faster inflation to be equally undesirable.

This change is clearly reflected in our forward guidance. As decided at our monetary policy meeting yesterday, the Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it sees inflation reaching 2% durably, and it judges that the progress realized in underlying inflation is consistent with inflation stabilizing at 2% over the medium term. This may also imply a transitory period in which inflation is moderately above target.

Thus we maintain our very accommodative monetary policy stance, appropriate for the rebounding eurozone economy and the still remaining uncertainties.

We also deemed that favourable financing conditions can be maintained with a moderately lower pace of net asset purchases of PEPP than in the previous two quarter.

In order to assess how much the new strategy is likely to change the ECB's policy preferences, a recent study 'Reading between the Lines' by Bank of Finland staff estimates the ECB Governing council's objective function, or loss function.1 This is done by applying text analysis to extract the tone, or sentiment, from the ECB's introductory statements, and combining this information with the ECB's real time macroeconomic projections.

The results suggest that under the now old definition of price stability the ECB's loss function indeed was asymmetric, suggesting the Governing Council disliked high inflation more than low inflation, and the de facto inflation aim – the bliss point of the loss function – was below 2%.

The ECB's new inflation target implies that from now on the ECB's loss function is indeed symmetric, with a bliss point at the (annual) inflation rate of 2.0%. These findings indicate that the ECB's new target brings about a clear change in policy preferences.

The symmetric 2% inflation target under the new strategy thus serves as a buffer against deflationary risks and provides monetary policy with more space to react to a sharp decline in inflation. We also want to rein in the costs to the economy from a too high rate of inflation.

A medium-term orientation for the inflation target also makes it possible, where necessary, to smooth out other economic shocks, such as shocks related to employment or financial stability. If actual inflation is slower or faster than targeted, monetary policy will respond to deviations gradually, considering the nature of the economic disruption. Deviations estimated to be temporary may not be responded to at all, but seen through.

Another topical and important theme in economic research and central banking is the interaction between monetary policy and inequality. At this conference there will be two sessions devoted to these issues.

Inequality is mainly explained by structural factors, and therefore policies other than monetary policy play a key role in addressing it. We know that monetary policy impacts inequality through two main channels: the income channel and the wealth channel.

Concerning the income channel, it is critical to note that the wages and employment prospects of low-income households are typically more sensitive to business cycles. Therefore, monetary policy easing – by stimulating economic activity and creating jobs, increasing wages and enabling savings – can reduce income inequality. This was an important channel after the previous crisis, the Great Recession, and has been again in the present COVID-19 crisis.

On the other hand, households' business and financial income are more responsive to monetary policy than labour income, and this impact of the income channel in monetary policy easing tends to benefit wealthier households more than low-income households.

As to the wealth channel, monetary policy easing generally makes the life of borrowers easier, but it can impact negatively on better-off households' savings. However, the overall net effect depends on the composition of household balance sheets. A fall in the interest rate affects different assets and liabilities differently, depending on their type and maturity.

It will be interesting, not least to a monetary policy-maker, listen to what the latest research has to say about these various channels.

Finally, there is the issue of climate change. While governments and parliaments have the primary responsibility for climate policy, the ECB, within its mandate, also needs to promote these objectives. Among other things, the ECB aims to expand its analytical capacity to incorporate climate issues in its economic models and to promote the measurement and disclosure of risks related to climate change, so that they can be taken into account in risk management, investment activities and monetary policy operations. At this conference, we will also hear a presentation on climate change and monetary policy.

Looking at the conference's programme in its entirety, I have high expectations for the coming two days and look forward to hearing the conclusions of this event.

A warm welcome once more on behalf of the Bank of Finland.

Let me wish you all a productive and enlightening conference.

Thank you.

编译  林月

编辑  刘嘉璐

来源  BIS

责编  李锦璇、蒋旭

监制  朱霜霜、董熙君

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