海外之声丨欧洲央行总裁拉加德：欧元区经济发展的挑战和未来
导读
在俄乌冲突的影响下，欧洲央行将会采取一切措施保证价格平稳和金融稳定。3月10日，欧洲央行首次对俄乌冲突的影响进行了评估。评估结果称，能源和商品价格上涨，国际贸易中断，投资者的信心减弱，最终会导致增长率下降，通胀率上升。但如果欧洲央行预测的基线情景能够实现，到2022年，新冠肺炎的影响减轻、国内需求的强势增长以及劳动力市场强劲发展会推动经济大步向前。
不确定因素也在急剧增加,此次冲突过后，经济增长会受到严重限制，通胀率也会在短期内显著增加。然而，长远看来，通胀率预计会逐步降低，于2024年达到2%的通胀目标。
欧洲央行决定放缓第二季度净资产收购的步伐，同时维持期权性风险以应对不断变化的周边环境。第三季度净收购的调整将取决于数据的变化，也将反映我们对未来局势的评估。
欧洲央行将依据发展策略调整利率，并履行中期将通胀率稳定在2%的战略承诺。过去几周的变化证明，战前推动的结构性变化已经成为了当前的重中之重。加速经济去碳化能避免气候恶化，降低人类对外部能源的依赖。战略自主也不再是人们渴望获得的目标，而是必不可少的做法。
作者 | 克里斯蒂娜·拉加德，欧洲中央银行总裁
英文原文如下：
Christine Lagarde: Remarks on the euro area economy
Ms Christine Lagarde, President of the European Central Bank
The "Wirtschaftsgipfel" of Welt/Axel Springer, Berlin
15 March 2022.
Source: BIS
Perhaps more than any other place, Berlin embodies Europe's journey from division and war to peace and unity. The city was devastated by fighting in 1945. It was divided by the Iron Curtain until 1989. But now we see a vibrant city, attracting people from all over Europe, living in peace.
So it comes as a profound shock to be confronted with a new war in Europe, less than 800 kilometres to the east of here. The scenes of dying soldiers and civilians are horrifying. Millions of people have been displaced, many of them coming to Germany, to Berlin.
This tragedy is a watershed for Europe and it calls on all of us to revise our ambitions. And we, as the central bank of the euro area, will play our part too. On 10 March the ECB's Governing Council expressed its full support to the people of Ukraine. We will ensure smooth liquidity conditions and implement the sanctions decided by the EU and European governments. We will take whatever action is needed to fulfil our mandate to pursue price stability and to safeguard financial stability.
At our meeting on 10 March we made a first assessment of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war. We concluded that it would lower growth and raise inflation through higher energy and commodity prices, the disruption of international trade and weaker confidence. But if the baseline scenario of the staff projections materialises, the economy should still grow robustly in 2022 thanks to the declining impact of the pandemic and the prospect of solid domestic demand and strong labour markets.
However, we also acknowledged that the uncertainty surrounding the outlook had increased significantly. The repercussions of the war on the economy will depend on how the conflict evolves, on the impact the current sanctions will have and on any further measures taken. We therefore looked at two alternative scenarios for the economic and financial ramifications of the war. In these scenarios, growth could be dampened significantly and inflation could be considerably higher in the near term. However, in all scenarios, inflation is still expected to decrease progressively and settle at levels around our two per cent inflation target in 2024.
Based on our updated assessment of the inflation outlook and taking into account the uncertain environment, we decided to reduce the pace of our net asset purchases for the second quarter, while maintaining optionality to respond to changing circumstances. The calibration of net purchases for the third quarter will be data-dependent and reflect our evolving assessment of the outlook.
If the incoming data support the expectation that the medium-term inflation outlook will not weaken even after the end of net purchases, we will conclude net purchases in the third quarter. But if the medium-term inflation outlook changes and if financing conditions become inconsistent with further progress towards our two per cent target, we stand ready to revise our schedule for net purchases in terms of size and/or duration.
Any adjustments to interest rates will take place some time after the end of our net purchases and will be gradual. The path for interest rates will continue to be determined by our forward guidance and by our strategic commitment to stabilise inflation at two per cent over the medium term.
The events of the past few weeks have demonstrated Europe's strength and resolve in times of peril. We have agreed on an unprecedented set of sanctions that hit their target hard, but also have material costs to ourselves. We have shown that we are prepared to pay the price necessary to uphold the universal values of peace, freedom and prosperity.
These weeks have also demonstrated why many of the structural changes that were in progress before the war have now become a matter of urgency. De-carbonising the economy faster will help avert the worst climate scenarios, while lowering our dependence on outside sources of energy. The idea of strategic autonomy is no longer simply desirable – it is essential. The summit in Versailles last week exemplified the united approach required to make Europe stronger in all areas.
Some might have doubts as to whether Europe can truly take this leap. We have seen false dawns before. But I believe that this time is different. Many Europeans have now become aware of their vulnerability and want to respond with strength and unity. And that is when change can happen.
I am moved to think of the words inscribed on a remaining part of the Berlin Wall at the East Side Gallery: "Many small people, who in many small places do many small things, can alter the face of the world".
编译 张卫
编辑 刘嘉璐
来源 BIS
责编 李锦璇、蒋旭
监制 朱霜霜、董熙君
点击查看近期热文
欢迎加入群聊
为了增进与粉丝们的互动，IMI财经观察建立了微信交流群，欢迎大家参与。
入群方法：加群主为微信好友（微信号：imi605）,添加时备注个人姓名（实名认证）、单位、职务等信息，经群主审核后，即可被拉进群。
欢迎读者朋友多多留言与我们交流互动，留言可换奖品：每月累积留言点赞数最多的读者将得到我们寄送的最新研究成果一份。
关于我们
中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）成立于2009年12月20日，是专注于货币金融理论、政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究机构和新型专业智库。研究所聘请了来自国内外科研院所、政府部门或金融机构的90余位著名专家学者担任顾问委员、学术委员和国际委员，80余位中青年专家担任研究员。
研究所长期聚焦国际金融、货币银行、宏观经济、金融监管、金融科技、地方金融等领域，定期举办国际货币论坛、货币金融（青年）圆桌会议、大金融思想沙龙、麦金农大讲坛、陶湘国际金融讲堂、IMF经济展望报告发布会、金融科技公开课等高层次系列论坛或讲座，形成了《人民币国际化报告》《天府金融指数报告》《金融机构国际化报告》《中国财富管理能力评价报告》《宏观经济月度分析报告》等一大批具有重要理论和政策影响力的学术成果。
2018年，研究所荣获中国人民大学优秀院属研究机构奖，在182家参评机构中排名第一；在《智库大数据报告（2018）》中获评A等级，在参评的1065个中国智库中排名前5%。2019年，入选智库头条号指数（前50名），成为第一象限28家智库之一。
国际货币网：http://www.imi.ruc.edu.cn
微信号：IMI财经观察
（点击识别下方二维码关注我们）
理事单位申请、
学术研究和会议合作
联系方式:
只分享最有价值的财经视点
We only share the most valuable financial insights.