IMF总裁：为什么必须抵制地缘经济分裂，以及如何抵制？

导读

过去几年间，新科技的发展彻底改变了世界，同时也带来了许多问题。国际货币基金组织指出，2019年，贸易政策的不确定性将GDP减少了将近1%。当前，我们面临两个选择：屈服于地缘经济分裂的压力，让世界走向贫穷和危险；或是重塑合作方式，共同渡过难关。我们面临四大首要任务来重塑全球信任体系。

首先，加强贸易合作，提高政府韧性。我们需要降低贸易壁垒，降低食品和其他产品的价格。不仅是各个国家，各大公司也需要实现进口多样化，以此保证供应链，为企业融入全球经济提供有利的环境，与此同时，出口多样化也能提高经济韧性。

第二，加强合作，解决债务危机。由于60%的低收入国家面临着严重的债务风险，一些国家需要重新思考债务重组问题。如果不通过合作解决债务危机，这些国家和债权人都会面临更大的难题。

第三，实现跨境支付现代化。低效的支付系统是包容性发展的另一障碍。各国应当共同努力，建设全球公共数字平台，使每个人都以最低成本和最快速度转账，还能将各国货币相连接，包括央行数字货币。

第四，直面气候变化挑战。为加速绿色转型，国际货币基金组织支持碳定价和投资可再生能源，并对造成负面影响的因素进行补偿。

只要各国通力合作，携手向前，我们就可以减少分裂，建设更为强壮、更加包容的全球经济。

作者｜Kristalina Georgieva（IMF总裁），Gita Gopinath（IMF第一副总裁），Ceyla Pazarbasioglu（IMF战略与政策部主任）

Why We Must Resist Geoeconomic Fragmentation—And How

By Kristalina Georgieva, Gita Gopinath and Ceyla Pazarbasioglu, MAY 22, 2022

Only international cooperation can address urgent global issues such as fixing shortages of food and other products, eliminating barriers to growth, and saving our climate.

As policymakers and business leaders head to Davos, the global economy faces perhaps its biggest test since the Second World War.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has compounded the Covid-19 pandemic—a crisis upon a crisis—devastating lives, dragging down growth, and pushing up inflation. High food and energy prices are weighing heavily on households around the world. Tightening financial conditions are putting further pressure on highly indebted nations, companies, and families. And countries and companies are re-evaluating global supply chains amid persistent disruptions.

Add to this sharply increased volatility in financial markets and the continuing threat of climate change, and we face a potential confluence of calamities.

Yet our ability to respond is hampered by another consequence of the war in Ukraine—the sharply increased risk of geoeconomic fragmentation.

How did we get here? Over the past three decades, flows of capital, goods, services, and people have transformed our world, helped by the spread of new technologies and ideas. These forces of integration have boosted productivity and living standards, tripling the size of the global economy and lifting 1.3 billion people out of extreme poverty.

But the successes of integration have also brought complacency. Inequalities of income, wealth, and opportunity have continued to worsen within too many countries for a long time—and across countries in recent years. People have been left behind as industries have changed amid global competition. And governments have struggled to help them.

Tensions over trade, technology standards, and security have been growing for many years, undermining growth—and trust in the current global economic system. Uncertainty around trade policies alone reduced global gross domestic product in 2019 by nearly 1 percent, according to IMF research. And since the war in Ukraine started, our monitoring indicates that around 30 countries have restricted trade in food, energy, and other key commodities.

The costs of further disintegration would be enormous across countries. And people at every income level would be hurt—from highly-paid professionals and middle-income factory workers who export, to low-paid workers who depend on food imports to survive. More people will embark on perilous journeys to seek opportunity elsewhere.

Think of the impacts of reconfigured supply chains and higher barriers to investment. They could make it more difficult for developing nations to sell to the rich world, gain know-how, and build wealth. Advanced economies would also have to pay more for the same products, stoking inflation. And productivity would suffer as they lost partners who currently co-innovate with them. IMF research estimates technological fragmentation alone can lead to losses of 5 percent of GDP for many countries.

Or think of the new transaction costs on people and businesses if countries develop parallel, disconnected payment systems to mitigate the risk of potential economic sanctions.

So, we have a choice: Surrender to the forces of geoeconomic fragmentation that will make our world poorer and more dangerous. Or reshape how we cooperate—to make progress on addressing collective challenges.

Restoring Trust in the Global System—Four Priorities

To restore trust that the rules-based global system can work well for all countries, we must weave our economic fabric in new and better ways. If we can start by focusing on urgent issues where progress will clearly benefit everyone, we can build the trust needed to cooperate in other areas where there is disagreement.

Here are four priorities that can only be advanced by working together.

First, strengthen trade to increase resilience.

We can start now by lowering trade barriers to alleviate shortages and lower the prices of food and other products.

Not only countries but also companies need to diversify imports—to secure supply chains and preserve the tremendous benefits to business of global integration. While geostrategic considerations will drive some sourcing decisions, this need not lead to disintegration. Business leaders have an important role to play in this regard.

New IMF research shows that diversification can cut potential GDP losses from supply disruptions in half. Auto manufacturers and others have found that designing products that can use substitutable or more widely available parts can reduce losses by 80 percent.

Diversifying exports can also increase economic resilience. Policies that help include: enhancing infrastructure to help businesses shorten supply chains, increasing broadband access, and improving the business environment. The WTO can also help with its overall support for more predictable, transparent trade policies.

Second, step up joint efforts to deal with debt.

With roughly 60 percent of low-income countries with significant debt vulnerabilities, some will need debt restructuring. Without decisive cooperation to ease their burdens, both they and their creditors will be worse off. But a return to debt sustainability will draw new investment and spur inclusive growth.

That is why the Group of Twenty’s Common Framework for Debt Treatment must be improved without delay. This means putting in place clear procedures and timelines for debtors and creditors—and making the framework available to other highly-indebted vulnerable countries.

Third, modernize cross-border payments.

Inefficient payment systems are another barrier to inclusive growth. Take remittances: the average cost of an international transfer is 6.3 percent. This means some $45 billion per year are diverted into the hands of intermediaries—and away from millions of lower-income households.

A possible solution? Countries could work together to develop a global public digital platform—a new piece of payment infrastructure with clear rules—so that everyone can send money at minimal cost and maximum speed and safety. It could also connect various forms of money, including central bank digital currencies.

Fourth, confront climate change: the existential challenge that looms above everything.

During the COP26 climate conference, 130 countries, representing over 80 percent of global emissions, committed to achieve net-zero carbon by around mid-century.

But we urgently need to close the gap between ambition and policy. To accelerate the green transition, the IMF has argued for a comprehensive approach that combines carbon pricing and investment in renewables, and compensation for those adversely affected.

Progress for People

The hard fact is that we have all been too slow to act as our economic fabric started to fray. But if countries can find ways now to come together around these urgent issues that transcend national borders and impact us all, we can begin to mitigate fragmentation and bolster cooperation. There are some hopeful signs.

When the pandemic hit, governments took coordinated monetary and fiscal measures to prevent another Great Depression. International cooperation was essential to developing vaccines in record time. On global corporate taxation, 137 countries agreed on reforms to ensure that multinational enterprises pay their fair share wherever they operate.

Last year, the IMF’s membership supported a historic $650 billion allocation of the Fund’s Special Drawing Rights to strengthen countries’ reserves. Even more recently, our members agreed to create the Resilience and Sustainability Trust—which provides longer-term affordable financing to help our more vulnerable members address climate change and future pandemics.

In the pursuit of further progress, we must all adhere to a simple guiding principle: policies are for people. Instead of globalizing profits, we should act to localize the benefits of a connected world.

Start with the communities in every country that lost out in the “old globalization,” and were set back further by the pandemic: Invest in their health and education. Help displaced workers learn in-demand skills and transition to careers in expanding industries. For example, firms that export pay higher salaries on average—as do greener jobs.

Multilateral institutions can also play a key role in reshaping global cooperation and resisting fragmentation, including by further strengthening their governance to ensure they reflect changing global economic dynamics—the upcoming IMF review of capital and voting shares will provide such an opportunity. They can also leverage their convening power, and maximize use of their diversified toolkits. The IMF can help, for example, with its range of financial instruments, bilateral and global surveillance, and even-handed approach across our membership.

There is no silver bullet to address the most destructive forms of fragmentation. But by working with all stakeholders on urgent common concerns, we can begin to weave a stronger, more inclusive global economy.

编译：张卫    选题：王诗

本文监制：董熙君、崔甜甜

来源｜IMF

版面编辑｜张必佳

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

总监制｜朱霜霜

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