海外之声丨IMF亚太部主任：亚太地区处于数字金融领域最前沿
导读
数字货币和数字技术能够带来金融体系的重大变革，并使广大公众深受其益。与任何创新一样，我们在这一领域面临的挑战同样也是寻找一种恰当的平衡：既要促进创新，又要维护稳定并保护消费者和投资者。随着数字资产规模的增长，若缺乏适当的监管，该行业的系统性风险将增加。
在亚太地区，很多人将数字金融视为一个机遇，认为其能为经济增长与创新带来了新的动力。随着私人和公共部门数字资产的兴起，亚太地区的一些国家正处于这一领域的最前沿。亚太地区的新型加密资产及相关产品服务快速发展，许多国家的加密资产交易量都达到了世界前列。
在央行数字货币方面，今年早些时候，IMF对36个亚洲经济体进行了一项调查，以了解各国在央行数字货币研究中采取了哪些措施，以及加密资产在其中扮演何种角色。其中有四项主要发现：
首先，亚太地区正处于央行数字货币探索的最前沿。虽然尚未有亚洲国家正式启动央行数字货币，但中国和印度是近期这一领域的领跑者。香港特别行政区和新加坡等其他地区在央行数字货币领域的进展也相对领先，日本、韩国、澳大利亚等国也进行了广泛的研究。
其次，各方对央行数字货币感兴趣的原因包括：高收入国家希望提高支付体系的效率和安全性，新兴市场经济体则希望促进普惠金融和金融稳定。一些国家只是单纯不想落后于本地区的其他国家或私人部门。
第三，各国关于采用或探索央行数字货币的决定，与其经济中加密资产使用的迅速增加和监管领域的尝试密切相关。例如，在印度尼西亚、菲律宾和越南，个人在侨汇和投资中更多使用了加密货币，这使政策制定者开始研究技术创新带来的切实好处，包括降低成本和改进支付体系。
最后，虽然各方对央行数字货币都抱有浓厚的兴趣，但实际上，很少有国家有望在短期至中期内发行央行数字货币。该地区的大多数国家都表现出了兴趣，从初步的研发工作到推出试点项目进度不一。
作者丨Krishna Srinivasan，IMF亚太部主任
Opening Remarks at Peer-Learning Series on Digital Money/Technology: Central Bank Digital Currency and the Case of China
Krishna Srinivasan, Asia and Pacific Department Director, IMF
July 7, 2022
Good morning, everyone, and good evening if you’re in the Western Hemisphere. Thank you for joining in today's event on Central Bank Digital Currency and the Case of China. As Alfred indicated, this is the second event in our new series of events on digital money and technology in the Asia-Pacific region.
Digital money and technologies can significantly change the landscape for financial systems and bring important benefits to the public at large. Among other things, they could foster financial inclusion, create new value-added in the economy, and reduce transaction costs, including across borders. The digital money/technology series covers a broad range of topics, and so allow me to make a few general points.
As with any innovation, the challenge is to find the right balance between fostering innovation and maintaining stability and protection for consumers and investors. We will hear about CBDCs in greater detail today, but let me also highlight the critical point we find ourselves in for crypto assets. For example, the recent crypto market crash— triggered by the de-pegging of a large algorithmic stablecoin and exacerbated by the collapse of over-leveraged financial institutions in digital asset banking and trading—highlights the risks created by regulatory shortcomings. As the size of digital assets grow, without proper regulation, the systemic risks that the sector poses will increase.
The stakes are particularly high for Asia and the Pacific, where many people see digital finance as an opportunity to build and exploit new drivers of growth and innovation. Several countries in the region are at the cutting edge of new developments stemming from the rise of private and public digital assets. New crypto assets and associated products and services proliferated in the region with transaction volumes of crypto assets in many countries among the highest in the world.
Policy makers are keen to monitor the risks emanating from the digital finance sector, with many activities still unregulated but expected to have broader impact. We can and should learn from each other's experiences. This peer-learning series thus highlights the experiences of countries in the region in regulatory guidance for the development of digital finance. Today's event focuses on China's experience with central bank digital currency, the e-CNY.
The IMF has set out an ambitious agenda for understanding the implications of fintech and digital assets for the global economy. For the Asia and Pacific Department, our goal will be to monitor and advise on these rapidly evolving areas for our member countries, and establish much closer interaction with member countries and key stakeholders. In particular, we'll strive to provide timely advice and capacity development assistance to small states, low-income countries, and emerging markets and developing countries in coordination with the IMF's Monetary and Capital Market Department.
As such, a lot of analytical work is underway on a broad set of issues. As it related to CBDCs, I want to highlight a survey of 36 Asian economies we conducted earlier this year to help us understand the steps countries have taken in their consideration of CBDCs and how crypto falls into this landscape. The note summarizing the survey will be released later this year, but for now let me share four key findings with you:
Finally, while there is a significant interest in CBDCs, very few countries are actually likely to issue them in the near to medium terms. Most countries in the region have shown interest, with work ranging from preliminary research and development to launching live pilots.
Third, the decision to adopt or explore CBDCs is closely linked with the rapid increase in the use of crypto assets in the economy, as well as attempts at regulation. For example, in Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, the uptick in crypto usage for remittances and investment among individuals has policymakers considering the tangible benefits of technological innovation, including lower cost and improvements in payment systems.
Second, several factors drive CBDC interest: The higher income countries seek to enhance the efficiency and safety of the payment system, while emerging market economies are looking to promote financial inclusion and financial stability. Some countries simply do not want to fall behind the curve, either because of regional peers or the private sector.
First, we find that the Asia and Pacific region is at the forefront of the CBDC exploration, and interest in CBDCs continues to rise. Even though no Asian country has formally launched a CBDC yet, China and India—the world's most populous countries—are frontrunners for doing so in the near future. Other economies, including Hong Kong Special Administrative Region and Singapore are relatively advanced in their work on CBDC, while some countries including Japan, Korea, and Australia have done extensive research.
Let me also use this forum to highlight that in addition to our work on CBDCs, we have done several studies on private digital assets, including empirical analyses on the drivers of crypto asset adoption across countries and the impact of policy actions.
Regarding the effect of policy on adoption, we find that crypto bans reduce crypto activities in the short term. However, because bans are difficult to enforce, the effect diminishes over the long term, even when regulations are strict. Also interesting, announcing a plan to issue a CBDC, likewise, dampens crypto activities.
Our research also shows that the crypto market can increase dollarization, as U.S. dollar stablecoins crowd out local currencies in crypto markets. This effect is stronger in countries with higher inflation and currency instability. The study points to regulated, localcurrency-backed stablecoins issued by the private sector as an alternative to retail CBDCs.
We find that the rate of crypto adoption is greater in countries with higher digital penetration and remittances as well as weaker macroeconomic fundamentals—such as high inflation. Informality, corruption and the degree of capital controls are also positively associated with higher crypto adoption. These highlight the importance of implementing proper tracking of crypto activities and improving regulations.
Looking forward, we have several analytical projects at various stages of execution.
We're also planning a series of more technical CBDC research to our support our capacity development efforts. This includes CBDC infrastructure and design options for emerging markets and developing economies. It also includes a framework for deciding if and how to adopt a CBDC, and the implications for monetary policy and cross-border transmission of shocks.
For the Pacific Island countries, we are undertaking analytical work to examine the prospects for digital currencies (including CBDCs) and to set up a framework to help the countries assess the costs and benefits of digital currency adoption as well as potential policy implications.
Given the importance of these topics for our membership and the IMF, digitalization is now regularly discussed with the authorities during our annual Article IV dialogues and covered in corresponding IMF staff reports. In particular, the Article IV consultations will focus on digital money issues for countries at the forefront of these issues (such as some Pacific Island countries and we will continue to closely cover developments in China) and countries with the potential to adopt CBDCs and/or encounter other digital finance issues soon.
I am very pleased that today we can bring together colleagues and friends from the People's Bank of China and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, as a well as international experts on these issues. China's experience and pilots with the e-CNY could hold useful lessons for other countries as they search for ways to navigate the fast-changing digital finance landscape.
I am sure that this series of events in general and today's event on CBDC and the case of China in particular will be very useful for us all. Thank you.
选题：陈烁冰
本文监制：董熙君、崔甜甜
来源｜IMF
版面编辑｜刘嘉璐
责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭
总监制｜朱霜霜
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