观点| 郑永年: “一带一路”基础设施建设应与民生经济更好结合
近期，China Focus以“一带一路”为主题，推出了一系列海外知名人物高端访谈。本篇文章整理自薛力代表China Focus对新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长郑永年的专访。
来源：微信公众号“ChinaFocus聚焦中国”
访谈对象：郑永年，新加坡国立大学东亚研究所所长
采访者：薛力，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所研究员，国观智库学术委员会委员、资深研究员
访谈时间：2018年7月4日
访谈地点：新加坡国立大学东亚研究所
郑永年：基础设施建设是中国的强项。基础设施盈利少且周期长。虽然中美两国都在发展实体经济，但华尔街重视的是金融资本和互联网资本。西方对基础设施等实体经济不那么感兴趣，这给其他国家留出了发展空间。但尽管如此，西方国家仍会批评中国的行为是“新殖民主义”。事实上，即便中国不在这些国家进行基础设施建设，西方国家也不会这么去做。
China Focus: It is difficult to make profits off of infrastructure in short term, so why is China pushing this kind of construction?
Zheng Yongnian: Infrastructure is China's strong point. It is less profitable and has a long investment cycle. Although both China and the United States are developing the real economy, Wall Street values financial capital and Internet capital more. The West is less interested in real economies such as infrastructure, which leaves room for the development of other countries, even though Western countries still criticize China's behavior as "neocolonialist." Actually, if China doesn't build infrastructure in these countries, no other countries will.
▲ 土耳其首都安卡拉的一家企业车间内，技术人员正在检修列车，该企业是中国铁路机车车辆工业总公司的合作伙伴。
Technicians check trains at a Turkish firm in Ankara, which is in partnership with China Railroad Rolling Stock Corp.
郑永年：我认为不具有很大的政治原因。如果具有政治原因，中国就不应该采取这些做法。但在现实层面，即使没有政治原因，他国也会将其视为具有政治原因。大规模的基础设施建设尽管是经济项目，但也会带来政治结果，如缅甸的密松水电站。一旦被视为政治项目，大规模的基础设施建设就会被意识形态化，其他国家就会从中寻求更多的经济利益。
China Focus: Is the BRI largely economically driven? Some people think there are political drivers. What do you think?
Zheng Yongnian: I don't think there is a big political reason. If there is a political reason, China should not adopt these practices. In reality, even if there is no political reason, other countries will regard it as political. Large-scale infrastructure construction, although an economic project, will also bring political results, as in the Myitsone Hydropower station in Myanmar. Once seen as a political project, large-scale infrastructure construction will be viewed as ideological, and other countries will seek more economic benefits.
郑永年：最大的优点就是发展。尤其是2008年金融危机后，全球经济发展缺乏动力，西方国家自顾不暇。上世纪80年代开始，西方为世界经济提供发展动力，中国也加入其中。但是一旦西方出现问题，那么世界经济就会缺乏动力。“一带一路”提供了新的机遇，基础设施对国家的经济发展非常重要。最大的不足是对民众而言，大规模基础设施需要与民生经济相结合。
China Focus: What are the biggest advantages and disadvantages of the BRI?
Zheng Yongnian: The biggest advantage is development. Particularly after the 2008 financial crisis, the global economy lacked the driving force for development. The West was busy enough with its own affairs. Since the 1980s, the West has been a driving force for the development of the world economy and China has joined in. But once there is a problem in the West, there will be no motivation. The BRI provides new opportunities, and infrastructure is important for economic development in any country. The biggest shortcoming is that for the people, large-scale infrastructure needs to be integrated with the livelihood economy.
郑永年：新加坡由于国土面积小，不太需要基础设施建设。主要的着眼领域还是金融，新加坡作为金融中心可以融资，并为中国“走出去”提供桥梁，将“一带”和“一路”连接起来。还有一个合作领域就是双方可以在第三国进行开发，这一点现在还处于讨论阶段。
China Focus: What is the current implementation of the BRI in Singapore?
Zheng Yongnian: Due to the small size of the country, Singapore does not need infrastructure construction very much; the main focus is on finance. Singapore can serve as a financial center, it can provide a bridge for China to go global and connect "One Belt" with "One Road." Another area may be where cooperation between the two sides is developed in third countries, which is still in the discussion stage.
郑永年：中国的外交政策都围绕“一带一路”展开，这既是优势也是劣势。围绕“一带一路”虽然有助于更好推进倡议，但也会引起其他国家的怀疑，他们看到什么都与“一带一路”有关，就认为这可能是中国式的新扩张主义。
China Focus: After the launch of the BRI, what changes has China made in foreign policy?
Zheng Yongnian: China's foreign policy is centered on the BRI, which is both an advantage and a disadvantage. Although it helps to better promote the initiative, it causes other countries to have doubts. They see that everything is about the Belt and Road and think that it may be the Chinese-style of new expansionism.
郑永年：基础设施建设是必要的，其他国家发展经济一定需要有相应的基础设施。美国华尔街资本和国际机构对这方面都不感兴趣，所以只能中国来做。
不过，中国也要改变方式，如“21世纪海上丝绸之路”，应该做各国港口、航空等的互联互通，这比在内陆修铁路要好。
目前工程规模太大，应当化大为小，化整为零。工程规模太大就有政治性，阻力就会增加。化大为小以后，民营企业和其他国家资本可以参与其中，也减少了自身的风险。
中国应当把“一带一路”基础设施建设和民生经济结合起来，考虑如何带动当地其他经济活动，让更多民众获益。
China Focus: What needs to be improved in China’s existing practices?
Zheng Yongnian: Infrastructure construction is necessary. Other countries must have corresponding infrastructure to develop their economies. Wall Street capital and international institutions are not interested in this aspect, so only China can do it.
▲ “一带一路”倡议旨在沿着古代丝绸之路的贸易路线，建立起连接亚洲各次区域以及亚欧非之间的贸易和基础设施网络。
The BRI aims to build a trade and infrastructure network connecting Asia with Europe and Africa along the ancient trade routes of the Silk Road.
However, China also needs to change its approach. For example, the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road should be the interconnection of ports, aviation, and the like, which are better than inland railway construction.
At present, the scale of the project is too large, and it should be reduced to a smaller size and broken up into parts. If the scale of the project is too large, it will cause political resistance. After reducing the project to a smaller size, private enterprises and other countries' capital can participate and reduce their own risks.
The Belt and Road infrastructure construction should be combined with the livelihood economy, China should consider how the BRI will drive other local economic activities and benefit more people.
本文仅代表作者观点，部分图片来自网络。
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国观智库成立于2013年，是中国最知名的独立智库之一。国观智库始终坚持“行知·致远”的发展理念，用知行合一、行稳致远的态度和实践致力于中国的安全、繁荣和稳定，研究领域聚焦于海洋战略与蓝色经济、边疆治理与全球反恐、”一带一路"与境外投资。