双语 | 印度为何无法超越中国？龙象之争，用事实说话！

自6月18日，印度边防部队进入中国境内洞朗（Doklam）地区阻挠中方的修路活动，引发局势紧张，至今已持续一个多月，中方已多次严正表明了捍卫领土主权的立场。

长期以来，中印作为两个最大的发展中国家与新兴大国，两者之间则形成了既相互合作又激烈竞争的局面。尤其是中国快速发展所取得的成就，一直被视为印度追赶的目标。

近年来，随着中国经济增速的放缓，印度经济增速的提高，甚至有人预测说印度将赶超中国，但真实情况是怎样的呢？Yee君用事实说话↓↓↓

While the average income in China and India remains low, their impressive economic growth and enormous populations have made them two world powers of extraordinary importance. Therefore, even if a large slice of their population remains in poverty, the economies of China and India are completely integrated into the world markets and financial exchanges, making the development of these two key countries important to maintaining a peaceful international scene during the 21st Century.

虽然中国和印度的平均收入水平仍然较低，但两国惊人的经济增长速度和庞大的人口基数成就了其举足轻重的世界大国地位。所以，即使两国很大一部分人口仍未脱离贫困，两国的经济已完全融入了世界市场和金融交易，使得这两个大国的发展对于维持21世纪稳定的国际环境发挥着重要的作用。

Following the financial crisis of 2008 and the difficulty faced by the main world powers in maintaining a sustainable economic growth, China and India are among the few economies to record a positive rate of growth. Many hope that a closer collaboration among these two colossus may lead the rest of the world to break the negative trend of the worldwide economy.

2008年金融危机爆发后，世界主要国家面临的困境在于如何维持经济的可持续增长，中国和印度是为数不多的保持经济正向增长的经济体。许多人希望，这两个巨人之间能够加强合作，引导其他国家扭转全球经济衰退的趋势。

Nevertheless, when China and India are more closely and meticulously compared, the profound difference in development between the dragon and the elephant is immediately noticeable, with the former having a decisive advantage over the latter.

然而，当我们把中国和印度之间进行进一步更详细比对的话，能够发现“巨龙之国”中国和“巨象之国”印度之间是截然不同的，中国比印度的发展更具决定性优势。

The situation in China

中国的发展情况

In 2010 China became the largest exporter of essential goods and surpassed Japan in terms of gross domestic production (GDP). The restructuring of the Chinese economy has increased the GDP tenfold since 1978. Measured in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), in 2015 China became the largest economy in the world, passing the United States for the first time in history.

2010年，中国成为最大的必需品出口国，且在GDP规模上超过日本。自1978年以来，在经济改革的促进下，中国经济增长了10倍。而就购买力平价来衡量的话，2015年，中国已经首次超过美国，成为了世界最大的经济体。

Nevertheless the per capita income of Chinese residents remains below the world average. Moreover the Chinese government has numerous difficult challenges to face, among which are:

然而，中国居民的人均收入依然低于世界平均水平。此外，中国政府还面临着诸多艰巨的挑战，包括：

• Reducing the enormous savings rate for families and promoting domestic consumption;

  降低偏高的家庭储蓄率，促进国内消费；

• Increasing work opportunities in sectors with high paying salaries and promoting the hiring of newly-graduated students;

  增加高收入行业的就业机会，扩大应届毕业生就业规模；

• Reducing the level of corruption and other economic crimes;

  减少腐败和其他经济犯罪；

• Reducing environmental pollution;

  减少环境污染；

• Reversing the aging process of the population.

  延缓人口老龄化进程。

In response to these problems in 2015, the Chinese government emphasized the need for new and more effective economic reforms during the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan to increase innovation and domestic consumption so that the Chinese economy is less dependent on fixed investments, exports, and heavy industry.

为解决上述问题，2015年中国政府强调十三五期间要进行新型更有成效的经济改革，促进创新和国内消费增长，减少中国经济对固定投资、出口和重工业的依赖。

The situation in India

印度的发展情况

India is slowly becoming a market economy. In the Nineties, the government promoted economic freedom measures, such as the deregulation of the industrial sector, privatization of principal state agencies, and a reduction on controls on commerce and direct foreign investment. These politics allowed India to reach an annual growth of 7% per year from 1997 to 2011.

印度正在逐渐实行市场经济。上世纪90年代，印度政府推行了经济自由措施，例如撤销了对工业部门的管制，主要国家机构的私有化，以及减少了对商业和国外直接投资的管制。这些政策使得印度从1997年—2011年，每年的经济增长率达到了7%。

Almost half of the workforce is engaged in the agricultural sector, but the real backbone of Indian economic growth is in the service sector. In 2011, the Indian economy slowed due to high interest rates, growing inflation and investors’ pessimism regarding the will of the central government to promote greater economic freedoms.

印度几乎一半的劳动力都从事农业生产，但是印度经济增长的真正主力却是服务业。2011年，由于高利率、通货膨胀加剧以及投资者对中央政府推出促进经济自由政策的悲观情绪，印度的经济发展放缓。

Nevertheless, starting in 2012, the Indian economy has recovered and grows thanks to government investments, measures introduced to reduce the deficit, and also thanks to greater participation on the part of foreign firms. The latest growth was in 2014 and 2015, during which period GDP growth equal to 7% was recorded. India, like China, has to face a series of challenges in order to maintain and sustain current economic growth, such as:

然而，2012年初印度的经济开始复苏并逐渐转好。这归因于政府的投资、减少赤字方面的政策措施，以及更多外国企业的涌入。最新的经济增长是在2014年和2015年期间，GDP的增长率达到了7%。印度和中国一样，为了维持现在的经济增长需要面对诸多的挑战，例如：

• Lowering the poverty rate;

  降低贫困率；

• Curb endemic corruption;

  抑制地方腐败；

• Eliminate violence and discrimination against women and children;

  消除对妇女儿童的暴力和歧视；

• Implement a more efficient distribution system throughout the territory;

  在全国范围实施更加高效的分配体系；

• Promote intellectual property rights;

  推广知识产权；

• Improve transport systems and infrastructure for agriculture;

  改善交通体系和农业基础设施；

• Create greater job opportunities in sectors other than agriculture;

  在除农业以外的其他行业创造更多的就业机会；

• Control migration between the countryside and cities;

  控制城乡移民；

• Reform and improve the scholastic system.

  改革和改进学术体系。

Level of development in China and India

中印发展水平对比

In the Fifties, the national economies of China and India were at the same level. The Indian economy during that same period recorded better performance both in terms of gross national product (GNP) and GNP per capita. Nevertheless, following the opening of foreign investments and the reforms promoted during the Seventies, the Chinese economy recorded enormous progress and has surpassed the Indian economy in every category.

上世纪50年代，中印两国的国民经济实力相当，就国民生产总值和人均国民生产总值而言，印度同期表现较好。但随着70年代中国开放外资并进行经济改革，中国经济开始腾飞，在许多方面都超越了印度。

According to the latest figures, the Indian economy is growing annually at 7.1 percent, while the Chinese economy's growth has fallen to 6.7 percent.

根据最新数据，印度经济每年增长7.1%，而中国经济增速则跌至6.7%。

Even if India's economy is growing faster than China, it does not mean that India has become economically as powerful as China. While India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was $2.5 trillion in 2016, China's GDP is nearly five times of that, at $11.4 trillion.

然而，即使印度经济增速比中国快，也并不意味着印度在经济实力上可以与中国相匹敌。2016年，当印度GDP规模达到2.5万亿美元（约合人民币16.6万亿元）时，中国则达到了11.4万亿美元（约合人民币75.7万亿元），几乎是印度的5倍。

That also reflects in the per capita GDP: while it is $8,260 for China, for India it is $1,718.

这种差别同样反映在人均GDP上：中国为8260美元（约合人民币54846元），而印度则仅为1718美元（约合人民币11407元）。

India might overtake China in terms of population by 2022, but to overtake its per capita GDP, the Indian economy needs to grow more than 30 percent annually.

到2022年，印度的人口规模可能要赶上中国，但就人均GDP而言，印度要赶超中国则至少需要每年经济增长30%。

Otherwise, at this rate, it will take more than 125 years to match China's success.

否则，照目前的增速，印度将至少需要125年才能达到中国的发展水平。

In conclusion, even if the Indian economy were to grow faster than the Chinese, India would need an enormous period of time before reaching a level of development and complexity on scale with the Chinese economy.

因此，即使印度经济增速快于中国，它在达到与中国同等的发展水平与规模之前，还有很长的路要走。

India’s economic growth began with its gaining independence from Great Britain in 1947, and has accelerated noticeably after the inauguration of political reforms promised by Nehru in the Eighties. The reforms concentrated on three main aspects: encouraging the importation of goods and products, a light easing of control on industry on the part of the state, and an initial reform on the system of taxation.

1947年，印度脱离英国获得独立，开始发展经济。八十年代，第一任首相尼赫鲁按照承诺，开始实行政治改革，之后印度经济增长明显加速。改革主要集中在三个方面：鼓励进口货物与产品、放松对国有工业的控制、对税制进行初步改革。

Lastly, since economic development is a typically political process, the role the government plays is fundamental in providing sustainable development. An analysis of the growth of the Indian economy since its independence shows how the poor administrative ability of the Indian government has been a key factor in the slowing of the socioeconomic development of the country.

最后，经济发展通常也是一种政治进程，因此政府在经济的可持续发展中扮演着重要角色。对印度独立以来经济发展状况的分析表明，印度政府管理能力低下是该国社会经济发展缓慢的一个重要原因。

When taking into account indications of government efficiency and quality of legislation, China has better results than India. The Chinese government is extremely competent in directing resources and reaching agreements, allowing it to promote an effective and efficient socioeconomic development.

如果考虑到政府办事效率和立法质量，中国比印度做得更好。中国政府很擅长调配资源和团结各方力量，这大大促进了其社会经济的高效发展。

In conclusion, even if the Indian GDP growth is faster than the Chinese, the Indian economy and its process of development are far from passing their Chinese counterparts.

总而言之，即使印度GDP增速高于中国，印度的经济实力和其发展进程离超越中国还非常遥远。

英文来源：Sapore di Cina，DailyO

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