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钟南山:峰值不等于“拐点” 但新高峰可能性小

CGTN CGTN 2020-08-25




  2月18日

根据国家卫健委发布的最新数据统计,2月17日0-24时,全国除湖北以外地区新增确诊病例79例,连续第14日呈下降态势。

钟南山认为,这表明国家采取的强有力干预措施已经取得明显效果,而这也意味着返程带来的疫情新高峰的可能性并不大。

  




2月17日下午,国家呼吸系统疾病临床医学研究中心主任钟南山在广州医科大学附属第一医院与武汉前方的广东医疗队ICU治疗团队再次开展远程视频会诊,讨论疑难病例的治疗策略,同时就全国疫情发展趋势、危重症救治发表看法。 

他介绍,其团队建立的数学模型将国家的干预措施和春节后务工人员返程高峰纳入了考量,这两个变量会改变疾病自然发展规律。根据该模型预计,2月中下旬全国病例数将达到峰值,但并不意味着达到峰值后马上下降,估计四月底基本稳定。

“目前是否已经达到峰值还不确定,还需要再观察几天。”钟南山还强调, 峰值不等于“拐点”,新的高峰是否出现将取决于返程的情况。不过他补充,主要大中城市都采取了强有力的措施做好出入人员的检查,因此务工人员返程带来新的疫情高峰的可能性不大。

The possibility of a spike in new coronavirus cases caused by people returning to big cities after the extended Spring Festival holiday is unlikely, said Chinese respiratory expert Zhong Nanshan on Monday.

Zhong said that strong measures taken in major large and medium-sized cities are effective in epidemic prevention and control.

According to a mathematical model built by Zhong’s team, the outbreak is expected to reach its peak in mid-late February, but that doesn't mean an immediate fall afterwards.

"It is uncertain if the outbreak has reached its peak, we need a few more days of observation," said Zhong.

虽然全国除湖北以外地区新增确诊病例连续第14日呈下降态势,但是武汉仍是高患病率和高病死率,病人总数占全国80%,病死率占全国95%以上。钟南山说,这与初期病人重复互相感染、感染病例增速较快有关。而医护人员无法在早期对病人进行氧疗等适当治疗,病情发展到终末期才进入重症病房,导致病死率高。

他说,目前重症救治确实存在一定困难,特别是危重症病人救治难度相较“非典”时期更大。但是随着全国管控收紧,尤其是武汉的“封锁”措施完善,和全国对湖北的全方位物资和人员的支持,情况将好转。

Data by the National Health Commission on Tuesday shows that the numbers of new coronavirus cases confirmed in China outside of Hubei Province have been declining since February 3. However, the epicenter of the outbreak is witnessing high numbers of new cases and high mortality rates. The expert said that there are difficulties in treating severe cases and that the treatment of patients in critical condition is harder than that during SARS.

The high mortality in Wuhan is related to repeated cross-infection among early-stage patients and delayed treatment, according to Zhong, adding that the situation will get better with progress in anti-epidemic measures and support from across the country.


在2月18日的广东疫情防控例行新闻发布会上,钟南山又再次提到武汉仍未完全停止人传人,他说现在迫切需要解决的两个问题一是正常人和病人分开,二是新冠肺炎病人和流感病人分开。如果老是将不同的人混在一起,那么武汉就算投入再大的人力财力,也不能将人传人的问题彻底解决。


他同时还提到了血浆疗法,他说这种传统的疗法对新冠肺炎患者的治疗有效并且安全,尤其是对重症患者。


Zhong, speaking at a press conference of Guangdong Province on combating virus on Tuesday, said that person-to-person transmission of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) is still happening in Wuhan, of central China's Hubei Province, the center of the epidemic.


He stressed the importance for Wuhan to distinguish health people from infected patients, and also to distinguish COVID-19 infection from common flu.


"It's urgent to differentiate those two issues or person-to-person won't stop in Wuhan," Zhong said, adding what Wuhan could achieve play a vital role in the national fight against the epidemic.


The renowned Chinese respiratory scientist also added that plasma therapy is a stable and safe method that has so far been found effective in treating the novel coronavirus patients, especially for those in severe condition. 


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