真相放大镜 | “武汉护士”知道中国新冠肺炎疫情暴发的真实情况？假的！

一月下旬以来，一则发布日期不明的视频在网络上广为流传，视频中一名女性声称知道中国武汉新冠肺炎疫情暴发的“真实”情况。然而，视频中她的讲述却与实际情况相悖甚远。在这一期的《真相放大镜》中，CGTN将带你了解疫情的官方数据和新型冠状病毒在国际上的最新研究成果，有理有据地指出该“护士”所谓的“真相”，纯粹是无端揣测。

新冠肺炎疫情自暴发以来就牵动着每一个人的神经。在疫情阴影的笼罩之下，很多人不由得发问——“我会有危险吗？”、“新型冠状病毒严重吗？”、“现在情况有多糟？”、“我可以相信来自中国的数据吗？”这些问题非常紧迫，并且很难找到确切的答案，主要因为局势仍在发展，还存在很大的不确定性。但这些未知的内容却已经成为滋生不实信息和谣言的温床。

If you're anything like me, you're probably asking yourself a bunch of questions about the new coronavirus. Am I at risk? Is the virus serious? How bad is the situation? Can I trust the numbers coming out of China? As urgent as these questions are, clear-cut answers are hard to come by. That's because there's a lot of uncertainty going on since the situation is still unfolding. This unknown has become a breeding ground for unverified information and made-up stories.

比如一则曾在网络上广为流传的视频。

这则未注明日期的视频来自武汉，自一月下旬以来一直在网上流传。在油管上，这个视频获得了数十万次观看，这个故事也已被世界各地的媒体所转载。视频中的这位女性被很多人认定是一名护士，尽管这纯粹是无端揣测。她在视频中称已经有九万多人次感染了该病毒，而这是当时官方数字的30倍以上。1月25日左右该视频传播开时，中国确诊的病例还不到3,000例。但在当时，这种数量上的巨大差异让人们怀疑中国是否在故意淡化疫情的实际影响。中国政府曾表示，在疫情最初，应对紧急情况的处理暴露出一些“缺陷”，但专家们认为，没有证据直接表明北京在掩盖疫情真实情况。

This undated video of a woman from Wuhan allegedly telling it like it is has been circulating online since late January. On YouTube, it has racked up hundreds of thousands of views. And the story has been picked up by media outlets around the world. The woman has been widely referred to as a nurse although this remains a matter of pure speculation. In the video, she says  90,000 people have been infected by coronavirus so far. This is more than 30 times the official figures at the time. China had confirmed less than 3,000 cases when the clip went viral around January 25. This drastic difference in numbers has raised questions about whether China could be downplaying the seriousness of the threat. The Chinese leadership has said that the initial response to the emergency exposed "shortcomings." But experts believe there is no evidence that  Beijing is trying to sweep things under the rug.

事实上，中国在应对疫情方面所作出的努力全世界有目共睹。

世卫组织突发卫生事件规划执行主任迈克尔·瑞安博士在接受采访时曾表示，“我们的驻华代表和专家团在疫情之初就抵达武汉，在我们看来，中国政府正与我们密切合作。如果你有任何对中国在应对疫情上欠缺透明度的怀疑，我们非常乐意讨论。”

在上文提到的那段视频中，该名女性还称，在一个人被传染之后，如果他没有被有效隔离或进行有效治疗的话，他会将病毒传给身边的14个人。

The same clip also offers another sketchy sliver of information: That is to say, after one is infected, if he's not effectively quarantined or not effectively treated, he would infect 14 individuals around him. 

这就是专家们所说的“基本传染数”，又叫R0，它是衡量疾病传播能力的重要指标。R0代表的是在没有外力干预的情况下，单个感染者可以传染给二代感染者的数量。R0值越高，该疾病就越容易传染。麻疹的R0高达18，天花的R0在5到7之间，非典是2到4之间。但是，人口密度、疾病易感性和公共卫生措施等因素会影响计算结果。

This is what experts call the "basic reproduction number," or R0, a measure of how potentially transmissible a virus is. R0 refers to the number of people who could catch the virus from one infected person in a population that is not immune to the disease. The higher the estimate, the more contagious the disease. Measles’ R0 can be as high as 18, that of smallpox is between 5 and 7, and SARS 2 to 4. However, factors, like population density, disease susceptibility and public health measures, affect the calculations. 

自新型冠状病毒暴发以来，许多研究人员都试图找到这个神奇的数字。一个国际科学家团队对1月1日至2月7日之间的12项研究成果进行了观察，发现R0估计值范围约为1.4至6.49。但是随着整体情况变得更加清晰，误差将会减少，科学家们预计新型冠状病毒的R0大约为2至3之间，这意味着每位患者平均可能感染2至3人。

Since the onset of the coronavirus outbreak, many researchers have tried to find the magical number. An international team of scientists recently reviewed 12 studies published between January 1 and February 7 and found that R0 estimates ranged from 1.4 to 6.49. But as the full picture becomes clearer, the margin of error will decrease and scientists expect the R0 for the new coronavirus to be around 2 to 3, meaning each patient can infect 2 to 3 people on average.

但是，疾病的传播速度并不能说明它的毒性轻重。根据中国疾病预防控制中心针对72,314例冠状病毒病例的研究，80.9%的新冠病毒感染者为轻症，13.8%为重症，4.7%为危重症，病死率约为2.3%，但科学家发现病死率会随着年龄增长而有所上升。由此看来，老年人和体弱多病的人似乎更容易被感染新型冠状病毒，但重要的是，每个人都有感染病毒的风险，对网上谣言也不可掉以轻心。

But how fast a disease can spread doesn't say much about how virulent it is. In the case of the new coronavirus, 80.9 percent of infections are mild, 13.8 percent are severe and 4.7 percent are critical, this is according to an analysis of 72,314 coronavirus cases – the largest of its kind so far. The overall death rate stood at 2.3 percent, but scientists found that fatality increased with age. Old people and those with pre-existing medical conditions seem to be more vulnerable to the new coronavirus, but it's important to remember that everyone is at risk – and the same goes for falling for online misinformation.

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