悦辩悦明 | 听武汉说

I am from Wuhan and I heard a lot about COVID19 and Wuhan over the past 100 days, but did people really listen?

我来自武汉。过去的一百天里，我听到很多关于新冠肺炎和武汉的消息，但人们真的听进去了吗？

The most important thing is information. Like any viruses we have met before, there is no perfect information. When one breaks out, people are confused. How bad is it, what should we do and what if we do nothing.

最重要的是信息。像我们遇到过的所有病毒一样，根本没有什么完美的信息。疫情爆发的时候，人们感到迷惑。情况有多糟？我们该做些什么？如果什么都不做会怎样？

That is what happened in Wuhan in early January. But the science became clear: it was a new virus, it spread to humans and it could spread fast. I assume the idea of doing nothing to get herd immunity also crossed minds, because that will minimize the economic impact and social disruption. But what about the toll on lives, how many people have to die to have social immunity. And China has a large population. That means even a small fatality rate of 1 percent from one and a half billion would account for a lot of people.

一月初的武汉就是如此。但之后，科学事实逐渐清晰：这是一种新型病毒，已经出现人类感染并且传播迅速。我猜当时什么都不做以获得群体免疫的念头也出现过，因为那会最大程度地减少经济损失，维护正常社会秩序。但是，生命的代价呢？需要牺牲多少人才能换来群体免疫？中国人口众多，这意味着即使是1%这样很低的死亡率，在乘以14亿多的人口总量后，数字也相当庞大。

Chinese policymakers soon realized we could not wait and we needed to do something, big and quick. We went back to the basics: testing, isolation and contact tracing. But that proved to be challenging. If you have enough testing kits and trace contacts thoroughly, you don't need to isolate everybody. That is what Singapore and South Korea did. But in the beginning of the outbreak, Wuhan did not have enough testing kits and could not trace everybody, so the Chinese did the extreme: Wuhan was locked down. People stayed at home. The lives of millions were disrupted and the economy came to a halt. A month later, the epidemic was under control.

中国的决策者很快意识到不能再等，必须立即采取大规模的快速行动。我们采取了最基本的方法：检测、隔离、追踪。事实证明，执行起来并不容易。如果有足够的检测盒并能做到充分追踪，则不需要隔离所有人。这正是新加坡和韩国所采用的方法。但是在疫情爆发初期，武汉并没有足够的检测试剂盒，也无法追踪所有人。因此，中国采用了极端做法：封锁武汉。人们居家隔离。数百万人的生活受到影响，经济活动陷入停滞。一个月后，疫情得到了控制。

But, unfortunately, the rest of the world did not pay attention. One major reason is human nature: we don't see threats until it is in our faces. Despite warnings from WHO, Europe and America still imagined that the virus was not their problem. In this age of political polarization, it is very easy to fall for simple soundbites that sound familiar, but the real world is not simple, neither is it familiar.

但遗憾的是，世界其他国家并未以此为戒。其中一个主要原因是人性使然：除非迫在眉睫，否则根本看不到危险的存在。尽管世界卫生组织不断发出警告，欧洲和美国仍幻想着新冠病毒和他们无关。身处当今政治分极化的时代，人们很容易就为一些看似熟悉的简单逻辑所蛊惑。但现实世界既复杂又陌生。

It is also a policy problem. Politicians and even some scientists were still arguing about the nature of the threat: is it a super flu, a cataclysmic pandemic or is it something in between? I guess they were blind to blow-by-blow accounts of Wuhan doctors fighting fatigue and desperation. The mortality rate is not big, but big enough to think again about everything.

这也是政策上的问题。政客和一些科学家还在为危机的本质争论不休：这是一场超级流感？还是毁天灭地的瘟疫？又或者介于两者之间？我猜他们对武汉的一线医生经历疲惫绝望的各种报道完全视而不见。虽然新冠肺炎的死亡率不高，但仍足以让人们再次思考整个事件。

COVID-19 is an equalizer.

新冠肺炎是一个平衡器。

Did China do everything right? No, there is a lot that needs to be revisited, refined and even reformed. But if you are blinded by stereotypes like how can we trust information from a communist country, you are not only doing injustice to the painful efforts of the Chinese, you are denying yourself a chance to gain insights into a common enemy that respects no national borders and political inclinations.

中国做的就是尽善尽美吗？并不是。许多做法需要反思、改进甚至改变。但如果被偏见所蒙蔽，认为自己无法相信一个共产主义国家提供的信息，那么你就不仅仅辜负了中国人民的艰辛付出，也失去了了解新冠病毒的机会，它是我们共同的敌人，不分国界和政治倾向。

Let us not be provincial here, some of the ideas and practices might not apply elsewhere, but it won't hurt to listen.

让我们放下狭隘。有些观念和做法也许并非普遍适用，但了解一下也无妨。

Isolation means isolation. It needs compliance from the people. China underwent a period in which the government moved infected patients and even their close contacts from their homes and put them in strict quarantine. That is extreme. But that also dramatically cut down infections. People think of the Chinese as disciplined. But what I saw in Wuhan was beyond normal discipline. Nobody stayed indoors because the apartments were blocked by metal bars, they stayed at home because they commit to each other. In general, the lockdown in China was much more severe. Of course, the debate about individual rights and public health will go on, but when the house is about to burn down, we don't argue about our bath time.

隔离就是隔离，需要民众的配合。中国政府在此前一段时间内一直将感染者甚至密切接触者从其家中转移至指定地点严格隔离。这是非常措施，但的确大大减少了感染。世人认为中国人遵规守纪。但在我看来，武汉人所做的远远不止这些。武汉人居家隔离不是因为屋门上锁，而是因为心有他人。总的来说，中国的封城举措要严格得多。当然，关于人权和公共卫生的争论还将继续。但火烧眉毛的时候，我们根本顾不上谈享受。

There are things unique to the Chinese system. For example, the relationship between the central and local governments. The central government in China plays the role of a champion, guide, coordinator, supervisor and guarantor of last resort. So when I saw Governor Cuomo of New York begging the federal government to step in to get ventilators, I thought, wow, what a difference different systems can make. In February alone, the central government in China sent 16000 ventilators to Hubei. Yes, one part of the country is locked down, but it is not cut off, on the contrary it is lifted up by the rest.The American system is different, the federal government in DC is not the central government in Beijing. But to deal with the epidemic, strong central leadership has undoubtedly helped. I am not saying the Americans should copy and paste, they would not and could not. But at least they should understand the forces at work and help their system improve.

中国的体制有一些独特之处，中央和地方政府间的关系就是其中一个。中央政府是开拓者、领路人、协调者、监督者和坚实后盾。所以当我看到纽约州州长科莫请求联邦政府协助购买呼吸机时，我不禁感慨不同的体制竟能造成如此巨大的差异。 仅二月间，中央政府就向湖北送达了16000台呼吸机。是的，中国一个地区被封锁了，但那里并未被隔绝。相反，它在全国各地的驰援中重生。美国的体制不同于中国，其联邦政府和中国中央政府的职能迥异。但在应对疫情上，强有力的中央领导无疑是有助益的。我并不是说美国应当全盘照抄，他们不会也无法这样做。但至少他们应该明白哪些做法是有效的并改进自己的体制。

Of course, different societies have different values. The Chinese prize collective benefits and the Americans value individuality. But we need not go one way or another. We need to keep a new balance when the wind blows hard and from an unknown place.

当然，不同的社会有不同的价值观。中国重视集体利益，美国则强调个体性。但这并不是非此即彼的选择。当不明情况出现且产生巨大影响时，我们需要找到一种新的平衡。

Covid-19 could also be a great corrector. Drop all the lenses that might blind us, because even with the best knowledge and will, it might not be enough, let alone being distracted by all that bias and bigotry.

新冠疫情可能会带来巨大的纠错效应。我们需要摘掉以一切可能障目的眼镜。即便有着最先进的知识和最强烈的意愿，我们所做的也可能是不够的，因此偏见就更不能有容身之地。

What a doctor did in Wuhan might save a life in Bergamo and what a New Yorker did not do may end up overwhelming a community in New South Wales.

武汉医生所做的可能会挽救贝加莫的一条生命，而纽约人没有做的也可能让新南威尔士州陷于灾难。

Let us stare at the problem with clear eyes and clear conscience. And let us do it together. We fight this with our strengths and vulnerabilities.

让我们擦亮双眼、问心无愧地正视这个问题。让我们团结一心。让我们拥抱彼此的力量与脆弱，共渡难关。

My families and friends in Wuhan told me they are on the move again. They felt the pain, they fought the plague and they embrace life regained. They hope the world hears it.

我在武汉的家人和朋友告诉我，他们的生活又重新开始了。他们经历了痛苦，战胜了疫情，再次拥抱生活。他们希望世界能了解武汉人所经历的一切。

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