悦辩悦明 | 以眼还眼 龙象共舞？

印中两国士兵发生冲突，造成了人员伤亡。国际社会担心喜马拉雅山两侧的这两个亚洲大国间关系破裂。担心是应该的，但他们很可能担心错了问题。

Indian and Chinese soldiers clashed, and there were casualties. The world worries about the tear and wear of relations between the two Asian giants sitting across the Himalayas. They should, but probably they are worrying about the wrong thing. 

是的，两国军队都有机枪、火炮和坦克。在冲突中却选择了使用拳头和石头，这就表明双方都保持了巨大克制。但令人担忧的是冲突引发的极端反应。

Yes, the two militaries have machineguns, artillery, and tanks. But they chose to use fists and stones, that fact itself says a lot about the restraints exercised on both sides. But what is alarming is the extreme reactions. 

圣雄甘地说过，以眼还眼只会使整个世界变得盲目。让我们保持清醒理智，特别是在全世界三分之一人口的未来面临危险之时。

As Mahatma Gandhi said, an eye for an eye only ends up making the whole world blind. Let us not be blind, especially when the future of a third of humanity is at stake.

中国和印度有着诸多联系。地理上，我们共享4000公里的边境线；历史上，两国关系绵延两千多年。是的，我们曾在1962年发生战争。战争阴影虽然至今仍未褪去，但已被和平与稳定的光芒冲淡。

China and India share so much. Geographically, we share 4,000 kilometers of border lines. Historically, we share two thousand years of relations. Yes, we fought a war in 1962 and still live in the shadow of that event, but that shadow pales in comparison with the bright arc of peace and stability.

那么，如何让这光芒长存呢？

So what is in the way of keeping the arc alive?

2010年，拉贾·莫汉在《外交政策》杂志上发文写道，“过去，印度通过与苏联结成事实上的同盟来制衡中国。如今，印度需要与美国达成战略伙伴关系以达到这一目的。” 这样的思维在印度有相当多的拥趸者，但它缺乏对大局的正确认识。

C. Raja Mohan wrote in Foreign Policy in 2010: "In the past, India balanced Beijing through a de facto alliance with the Soviet Union. Today, it needs a strategic partnership with the United States to ensure that China’s rise will continue to be peaceful." This kind of thinking has quite some following in India. But it belies a bigger picture.

世界已经改变，地缘政治也不再像过去那般重要。今天，没有任何一个国家会通过侵犯他国获取资源，因为各国间可以进行贸易往来；也没有任何一个国家会通过奴役他国获取劳动力，因为在全球产业链中携手合作能够创造更多利益。印度和中国都应当在这一大背景下思考问题。

The world is different. Geopolitics is no longer as relevant as before. Today, no country would invade another to extract resources, since it can make deals through trade; also, it wouldn't enslave another for labor as they can find a better bargain in joining hands within the global value chain. Both India and China need to think in this context. 

两国需要转换思维，以新的眼光看待彼此和彼此的未来。中印两国互为邻邦，希望共同崛起。达成这一目标的方法只有一种：建立互信，着眼未来。

And they need to refresh their memories and rebuild the image they have about each other and each other’s future. India and China are neighbors, and they want to become great powers together. There is only one way: try to trust each other and look to the future.

我还记得2016年，我前往德里做一些有关“一带一路”的采访。移民局官员就我的访问目的向我问话20分钟，从我的哲学信仰问到我的家庭背景，又问到我最喜欢的作家。我猜他要么是特别喜欢聊天，要么是认为我非常可疑。他向我问话时，有300个人在我后面排队等待。

I remember my visit to Delhi in 2016 for some Belt and Road interviews. The immigration officer questioned me for 20 minutes on my purpose of visit, from my philosophical beliefs to the origins of my family and my favorite writer; I guess he was either very interested in talking or very suspicious of me. All of this while 300 people were waiting behind me.

一旦民族主义凌驾于实用主义之上，机会就会白白流失。中国两国都在边界处修路搭桥, 但双方并不需要排挤对方, 而是共同建设。

When nationalism trumps pragmatism, opportunities are lost. Both India and China are building roads and bridges across the border, but they need not outbuild each other, they can build together.

即便加入“一带一路”计划能够极大地推动印度的基础设施发展，印度仍然说：“谢谢，还是不用了。”当中国投资者热切希望在印度设立企业，而且其印度合作伙伴也怀有同样期望时，政府部门和民间社会却不欢迎他们。

Even though the participation in the BRI could remarkably boost Indian infrastructure, India said "thanks, but no thanks." When Chinese investors are eager to set up businesses and their Indian partners are craving the same thing, they are not always welcomed in government buildings and civilian sitting rooms.

印度会成为强国, 但前提是必须对外开放，就像中国在20世纪80年代所做的那样。而当其走向开放的道路，中国将是印度最好的选择。让我们来看几个数据。2019年，中印两国贸易额仅为920亿美元，仅占中国与东盟国家贸易额的四分之一。可是，这两个国家是亚洲最具发展前景的经济体。

India will be a great power, but only when it is ready to open up, as China did in the 1980's and when it opens up, there won’t be any other direction better than China. Let me give you some numbers, trade between China and India was merely 92 billion U.S. dollars in 2019, a quarter of China-ASEAN trade. And yet, they are the most promising Asian economy. 

令人吃惊的是，在边境摩擦发生后，印度的一个主要贸易机构呼吁在全国范围内抵制中国商品，意图将两国今年的贸易额再减少130亿美元。更令人担忧的是两国的人员往来。2018年，到访印度的中国人仅有30万，而同年到访日本的中国人为800万。

And amazingly, after the border scuffle, a leading body of Indian traders has called for a nationwide boycott of Chinese goods as they want to cut trade by another $13 billion this year. But the traffic of people is more worrying. In 2018, only 300,000 Chinese visited India, and the same year eight million went to Japan.  

两国曾互派最优秀的僧侣、商人和思想家，而现在我们在电视上打口水仗，在大街上高喊敌视口号。中国巨龙与印度大象值得更好的未来，我们可以从更好的相互了解开始。

We used to send our best monks, traders, and thinkers to each other’s countries, now we trade slurs on television and shout slogans on the streets. The dragon and the elephant deserve better, and we can start by knowing better. 

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