美国约翰斯·霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)的新冠疫情最新统计数据显示,截至北京时间6月28日17时,美国确诊病例为2,510,323例,这个数字令人震惊。
美国新冠疫情为何如此失控?专家们对此问题进行了大量的研究,发现社交媒体的错误信息可能导致疫情加重。
Experts have done numerous researches on how the U.S. got here, including the lack of policies from the Trump Administration, large-scale testing and tracing, and low awareness of citizens.
最近,关于保守派媒体报道对新冠疫情影响所做的三项最新研究为专家们提供了一个新的视角。这些研究分析了在新冠病毒肆虐的情况下,支持特朗普的媒体如何放大、发布错误信息,并通过传播阴谋论,让公众放松警惕。其中一项研究表明,偏向保守派言论的地区相比通过主流媒体掌握资讯的地区而言,感染率和死亡率都更高。
哈佛肯尼迪学院《错误信息评论》的主编艾琳·帕斯奎托(Irene Pasquetto)表示,大量研究数据显示,由于社交媒体在病毒爆发初期报道力度不足,公众对病毒缺乏足够了解。关于放大错误信息和阴谋论,伊利诺伊大学研究人员于4月发表的报告表明,通过主流媒体(包括印刷和广播等形式)获得信息的人更有可能对新冠病毒的严重性和感染风险做出准确的评估,而那些依赖于保守派消息来源的人,则更愿意相信阴谋论或毫无根据的谣言。Three new studies, however, on the impact of conservative media reports on the pandemic, offer a fresh perspective to the COVID-19 outbreak in the United States. Researchers believe that the consumption of far-right media and social media content may have led to lower concern about the virus, slow preventive measures by the public, and the worsening situation in the U.S. These studies analyzed how pro-Trump media outlets give out misinformation and conspiracy theories, as well as let people's guard down despite the rampant spread of the coronavirus. One research suggests both infection and mortality rates are higher in places that consume more of this type of media than in places where mainstream media is more prevalent. "We are receiving an incredible number of studies and solid data showing that consuming far-right media and social media content was strongly associated with low concern about the virus at the onset of the pandemic," said Irene Pasquetto, chief editor of the Harvard Kennedy School Misinformation Review, which published one of the studies, according to a Washington Post report. With regards to amplifying misinformation and entertaining conspiracy theories, one of the studies, published by researchers of the University of Illinois in April, shows people who get their information from mainstream print and broadcast outlets are more likely to make accurate judgement on the pandemic, while those who rely heavily on pro-Trump sources, like Fox News and Rush Limbaugh, tend to be misled by conspiracy theories. 此外,美国国家经济研究局(National Bureau of Economic Research)对这些错误的信息如何影响人们的行为方式展开了研究。专家们使用来自数百万部手机的匿名定位数据来分析福克斯新闻在特定邮政编码所涵盖区域内的受欢迎程度,然后对比那里的社交隔离效果。最终他们发现,在一个邮政编码区域内,福克斯新闻频道收视率每上升10%,对应着该地区民众按照公共卫生指导原则待在家中的倾向性则下降约1.3个百分点。 主要研究人员安德烈·西蒙诺夫(Andrey Simonov)强调,考虑到同一时期民众在家闭门不出的总体倾向性上升了20个百分点,这个影响是“相当大”的。The second study, posted by the National Bureau of Economic Research in May, examined how wrong beliefs may bring about incorrect actions in real life. They took stay-at-home behavior as the major indicator of the study, and found a 10 percent increase in Fox News viewership reduced its residents' preference to stay home by about 1.3 percentage points. Andrey Simonov, the study's lead author, told the Washington Post that effect size is "pretty large," compared to the total stay-at-home behavior in the U.S., which increased by 20 percentage points during the study period.今年6月,经济学家们对长期观看福克斯新闻节目的观众的行为变化进行追踪。他们发现,相对于其他媒体的受众而言,福克斯新闻频道的观众对公共卫生指导的服从性相对较低。此外,两档节目在内容上的巨大差异也会导致观众行为不同。以福克斯新闻两档节目为例,两名主持人尚恩·汉尼提和塔克·卡尔森提及新冠病毒的频率截然相反,相比汉尼提竭力淡化新冠病毒的影响,卡尔森更为重视疫情的相关话题。研究结果表明,观看汉尼提节目的观众在与疫情相关的行为习惯(如洗手和取消出行计划)的改变方面与其他节目观众相比反应较为迟缓。也就是说,个人行为差异是影响疫情扩散的重要制约因素。
The third study published in June also found that Fox News viewers are less likely to comply with public health guidelines than consumers of other media. But it takes the analysis a step further. They found big differences in content between the two shows, which resulted in different behaviors of their viewers. It turns out that Hannity viewership was associated with changing pandemic-related behaviors (like hand-washing and canceling travel plans) four days later than other Fox News viewers, while Carlson viewership was associated with changing behaviors three days earlier. Given the importance of individual behavior in curbing the spread of the coronavirus, it stands to reason that places where people were slower to take preventive steps might see more severe outbreaks, the study concludes. 由此可见,保守派媒体的不当报道容易混淆民众对疫情形势的判断,从而进一步加剧美国的疫情危机。Altogether, the three studies have demonstrated how different media coverage about the coronavirus has affected whether people took the epidemic seriously enough and took preventive measures timely, which has influenced the markedly different pandemic trajectory in the country.