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英文朗读版:遥远的金星,和地球的忧郁蓝|CGTN周末随笔

CGTN CGTN 2020-11-21


地球的蓝色,或许也代表着人类寂寞的光谱。无奈呀!仰望星空七百多万年了,也没个邻居过来问候一声。
 
这一次,金星上会不会有生命呢?我们迫切到仿佛要从磷化氢里大变活人。
 
“TA们都在哪儿?”1950年,诺贝尔物理学奖得主恩利克•费米在餐桌上突然问苍天,留下了耐人寻味的“费米悖论”:宇宙的可观测年龄是138亿岁,这期间有多少星球来去匆匆难以胜数。注册了这么多账号,难道只有地球走出了新手村?如果宇宙中早有其他玩家,一个满级号难道连个教学视频都没留下? 
 
可能TA们早已悄悄来过,只是天空不会留下痕迹;可能TA们至今仍混迹在你我当中,戴着口罩朝九晚五。当然,外星科技也并不一定超过人类,相当长的一段时间里,大家或许只能继续相望于星河。
 
假设硬件达标,有没有其他因素让TA们对星际穿越望而却步?比如“黑暗森林”带来的忧虑。面对漆黑一片的宇宙纵深,在确知其他文明的善意之前,谁能保证贸然接触不会引狼入室?又或许,当文明进化到曾经沧海难为水,外星人已深谙相忘于江湖的道理,在彼此可以平等对话之前不必打扰。
 
最悲伤的假说,是金星上可能的生命迹象并非开始,而是残留——曾经存在过的地外文明,在未及造访地球之前,已为某些突发事件从茫茫星河中彻底抹去。极端天气、疫病流行、超级战争失控等等,哪怕在人类的次元里也并非难以想象。
 
这些科幻片样忧虑的真正对象,可能还是人类自己吧。恐龙也好,“小强”也罢,只是物竞天择下的赢家或输家。唯有人类,在有意无意地重制大自然的游戏规则。这种行为的结果尚难断言,但我们已经有些犹豫不定,幻想着沿着人类行为方式发展的外星文明会有怎样的结局。

在费米悖论的众多猜想中,有一个“人类唯一”假说:文明只此一家,寰宇再无分店。但这并不意味着地球“注孤生”。再过几十亿年,说不定某些星球终会进化成我们今日的样子,而那时的人类或许可以为这些后来者树立一个榜样:如何成功将文明延续下去。于目前的世界,这个任务还有些强人所难,“千年发展目标”是现阶段人类的思考极限。但不积跬步,我们可以先定下一些“小目标”:比如遏制各种“大杀器”、更积极地应对气候变化,以及学会在全球疫情流行时不要继续互相伤害。

都做到了,剩下的就看金星自己了。






Sidelines | Life on Venus? Questions on Earth



Sidelines is a Column from CGTN's Social Media Desk

Venus has some phosphine to explain and Earth may finally shake off its lonely blue.

The stinky compound has been spotted from Venus's atmosphere and the estimated quantity somehow exceeds what the planet's physical environment can offer. Put differently, there might be a biological source for it – potentially evidence of life.

Earth is cautiously thrilled by the news thanks to decades of fruitless search for extraterrestrial beings. The Nobel winning physicist Enrico Fermi hammered home the frustration and unbelievability in 1950: Where is everybody? Now known as the "Fermi Paradox," the casual remark has turned into one of many serious inquiries into the existence (or non-existence) of aliens.

The Paradox resides in the gap between statistical deduction and reality. The universe is observably 13.8 billion-year-old since the Big Bang when it was thrown into existence. The number of planets spinning in it beats our mental power to count. It takes merely seven million years of the 4.5 billion-year-old Earth to conjure up humans that make spaceships. In such a vast pool and lengthy period of time, there is bound to be a few planets that got at least as lucky as Earth. How is it explicable that we haven't received any message from anybody?

Maybe they had set foot on Earth a long time ago and all we need is to dig deeper for the traces. Or they may have been with us for ages without our awareness (referencing Men in Black). But what if they haven't? A relatively dull but reassuring excuse is that their ships are little fancier than ours, or weaker, in sponsoring a star trek.

More wakening thoughts sink when we consider the possibility that they are technologically prepared but have chosen not to visit. If the universe really is a Dark Forest where everybody is forced by the blinding blackness to think other roamers as potential threats, reaching for a suspicious rivaling power involves stark risk. A benevolent view is that the technologically superior has chosen to observe from afar because they know better not to intervene. What they must have seen or been through to cement this kind of philosophy is beyond our imagination, but profound wisdom often comes with a scar.

This leads to probably the gloomiest explanation of all to the Paradox. The civilization as glorious as being able to make interstellar trip is already extinct, for reasons we can only guess. Natural disasters such as climate change and plague; or artificial catastrophes exemplified by the exhaustion of natural resources and the equivalent of a mass nuclear war, could all pull the plug on a planet's future.

If we dwell on this disheartening supposition for a little longer, it would soon dawn on us that onto the theoretical sad ending of some unknown star we've projected our anxiety for the future of human civilization. The blue globe operates with its own law that disregards how powerful the creatures treading on it are. Will human beings, the most destructive species that's ever walked on Earth in view of the sabotages from global warming to deadly warfare, be spared the ill fate that's envisaged befalling on an imagined alien superpower? 

Among many more theories in response to the Paradox, one boasts Earth's uniqueness: we are alone in the vanguard of the universe's evolution, being its boldest experiment. If it turns out Venus has seen a genesis of life in the form of microbe, it may after tens of billions of years evolve into where the Earth is today. By then who knows if the Venusian civilization will not look upon us for inspiration? As incredible as it sounds, there is a chance that human beings could set a good example for the latecomer. The challenge is that we rarely plan things that far into the future. Luckily, grant project advances with baby steps. By not dropping big bombs on each other, by not exhausting the planet, and certainly by not letting a deadly virus divide and conquer us, we might just be about to make it.


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