IMF：中国将是2020年世界上唯一实现正增长的主要经济体

国际货币基金组织（IMF）10月13日发布《世界经济展望报告》，预计2020年中国经济将增长1.9%，是全球唯一实现正增长的主要经济体。

China continues to be the only economy in the world to show positive growth in 2020 as its GDP is predicted to expand 1.9 percent this year, according to the latest economic outlook released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday.

《世界经济展望报告》指出，由于经济复苏力度强于预期，中国经济有望在2021年持续增长，增幅达8.2%。

此前，世界银行曾在9月底预测中国经济将在今年增长2%，较6月的预测上调了1%。

Thanks to a faster-than-expected recovery, China's growth will accelerate to 8.2 percent next year, the IMF said in the World Economic Outlook.

The World Bank in late September estimated that China's economy is expected to grow by 2.0 percent in 2020, up from the 1 percent projection released in June.

报告预计今年全球经济将萎缩4.4%，这较6月的预测下调了0.8%。然而，这场由新冠疫情引发的的全球经济危机，仍是20世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的衰退。

报告还指出，许多经济体结束“封锁”重启经济后，复苏的步伐快于预期。但由于疫情仍在扩散，全球经济活动要想恢复到疫情前水平依然“道阻且长”。

The IMF forecast a 2020 global contraction of 4.4 percent, an improvement over a 5.2 percent contraction predicted in June, when business closures reached their peak. But it is still the worst economic crisis since the 1930s Great Depression. 

Many economies have started to recover faster than anticipated after reopening from their lockdowns but with the COVID-19 pandemic continuing to spread, the global economy's ascent back to pre-pandemic levels remains prone to setbacks, the outlook said.

报告还预计今年发达经济体经济将萎缩5.8%；2021年，发达经济体可实现复苏，经济增速恢复至3.9%。

其中，美国经济今年将萎缩4.3%，英国经济将萎缩9.8%，日本经济将萎缩5.3%。

The IMF has upgraded its estimate for advanced economies for 2020 to a contraction of 5.8 percent, followed by a rebound in growth to 3.9 percent in 2021.

The U.S. economy is expected to contract 4.3 percent this year, and Britain's economy will contract 9.8 percent. Japan's economy is forecast to decline 5.3 percent.

2020年，除中国之外的新兴市场和发展中经济体经济将萎缩5.7%，2021年其经济增速可回升至5%。

预计今年巴西、俄罗斯、印度的经济将分别萎缩5.8%、4.1%及10.3%。

For emerging market and developing countries (excluding China), the IMF has a downgrade with growth projected to be a contraction of 5.7 percent in 2020 and then a recovery to 5 percent in 2021.

Brazil and Russia are predicted to contract 5.8 and 4.1 percent respectively, while India's economy could shrink 10.3 percent. 

'Less dire'

国际货币基金组织首席经济学家吉塔·戈皮纳(Gita Gopinath)表示目前病毒检测能力在提高，治疗手段在改善，疫苗试验在推进，所以“当前时刻虽极其艰难，但仍有理由对前景抱有希望。” 

"These are difficult times, yet there are some reasons to be hopeful," Gita Gopinath, IMF's economic counsellor and director of research, was quoted as saying in the outlook report, referring to progress made in treatments and vaccine trials.

与国际货币基金组织6月的预测相比，大型发达经济体在今年二季度的GDP负增长程度不如预期严重，中国的经济复苏力度强于预期，且有迹象显示三季度全球经济复苏步伐有所加快。

Compared with the previous outlook IMF made in June, the second quarter GDP growth in large advanced economies were slight better and China's return to growth was stronger than expected, the report said, noting there are signs of a more rapid recovery in the third quarter.

国际货币基金组织总裁克里斯塔利娜·格奥尔基耶娃(Kristalina Georgieva)也表示“形势虽不像3个月前预想的那般严重，但依然严峻”。她指出各国政府需采取各种医疗卫生措施，有效遏制疫情蔓延。与此同时，各国不能过早取消各种经济刺激措施和纾困计划，否则可能给个人和企业带来危机，导致失业、破产等情况。

"The story is less dire than we thought three months ago, but dire nonetheless," IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said during a panel discussion that was held virtually.

Georgieva said governments needed to stay focused on their healthcare responses to the coronavirus and must not withdraw stimulus measures prematurely.

"If we cut these lifelines that have been extended to families and businesses before we are out of the health crisis, this could be catastrophic in terms of bankruptcies, unemployment and undoing all that has been done so far," she added.

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