五大发展理念提出五周年之际，中国问题专家库恩的思考

I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and here's what I'm watching: the fifth anniversary of the Five Major Development Concepts, formulated by President Xi Jinping in 2015 as the overarching, guiding strategy for China's economic and social development. According to Xi, China's model, going forward, is driven by "innovation, coordination, green, openness, and sharing."

I was there at the beginning, investigating each of the Five Major Development Concepts. I saw how the Five Concepts began to inform the thinking and guide the behavior of officials at all levels of government.

Fast forward five years, what has happened? What has been accomplished? What challenges lie ahead?

First is Innovation – now more important than ever, especially in light of fierce technology competition with the U.S.. Chinese President Xi calls for China to lead the global technological revolution, and make innovation the primary driver of economic growth, stressing that success depends on strengthening property rights and protection of entrepreneurs. A challenge for Innovation: How long will it take China to produce world-class semiconductor chips.

Second is Coordination – actualized by three mega-regions: In the South, the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, with around $2 trillion in GDP. In the East, centered on Shanghai, the Yangtze River Economic Belt, nine provinces and two centrally administrated municipalities that constitute about 40 percent of China's GDP.  In the North, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region including the new city of Xiong'an, where non-core functions of the Chinese capital will migrate.  A challenge for Coordination: How to balance coordination with competition, such as between Hong Kong and Shenzhen.

Third is Green – China is now a world leader in renewable energy: producing, utilizing and financing renewable power. China has the lead in hydro, solar and wind energy. Moreover, China is building and financing cutting-edge renewable energy projects globally. A challenge for Green: How can China reduce its dependence on coal.

Fourth is Open – China is continuing to open markets to foreign entry, such as in service industries like finance, and designating new Free Trade Zones, such as the entire island province of Hainan. A challenge for Open: With China relying more on its domestic market, and with the U.S. threatening to decouple, how can China continue to reform.

Fifth is Sharing – where more-developed regions partner with less-developed regions, such as in poverty alleviation, fighting epidemics, and healthcare. For example, Shanghai hospitals partnering with Qinghai hospitals in minority areas. The challenge for Sharing: How to make it self-sustaining.

For China now to transition from its first centenary goal of becoming a "moderately prosperous society" in 2020, to its second centenary goal of becoming a fully modernized socialist nation in 2050, the Five Major Development Concepts remain crucial.

I'm keeping watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.

我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩，以下是我正在关注的：五大发展理念提出五周年。

2015年，习近平主席提出五大发展理念，这是中国经济社会发展的总体指导战略。习主席表示，中国的发展模式要坚持以创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享的发展理念为引领。在五大发展理念提出伊始，我就对其逐一进行了调研。我了解到五大发展理念如何影响各级政府官员的思想并指导他们的行为。五年过去了，期间发生了什么事？五大发展理念取得了哪些成就？未来有哪些挑战？

首先是创新发展——现在创新比以往任何时候都更重要，特别是考虑到中国与美国在技术领域的激烈竞争。习主席呼吁中国引领全球技术革命，并让创新成为经济增长的主要动力，他强调创新成功取决于能否加强对产权和企业家权益的保护力度。创新发展的挑战是:中国需要多久才能生产出世界一流的半导体芯片？

第二是协调发展——这通过三个超大区域的发展来展现：位于南方的粤港澳大湾区，它的国内生产总值约为2万亿美元。位于东部以上海为中心的长江经济带共包括九个省份和两个直辖市，约占国内生产总值的40%。位于北方的京津冀地区，包括雄安新区，中国首都的非核心功能将迁移到这里。协调发展的挑战是: 如何平衡协调与竞争？例如如何平衡香港和深圳之间的协调和竞争？

第三是绿色发展——中国在发展可再生能源领域处于世界领先地位：生产、利用和资助可再生能源。中国在水能、太阳能和风能方面处于世界领先地位。此外，中国正在全球范围内建设和资助尖端的可再生能源项目。绿色发展的挑战是:中国如何减少对煤炭的依赖？

第四是开放发展——中国继续向外资开放市场，比如在金融等服务行业，并设立新的自由贸易区，比如整个海南省。开放发展的挑战是: 在中国更加依赖国内市场，而美国威胁要与之脱钩的情况下，中国如何继续改革？

第五是分享发展——较发达地区与欠发达地区开展合作，例如在扶贫、抗击流行病和医疗保健等方面开展合作。举一个例子，上海医院与青海医院在少数民族地区开展合作。共享发展的挑战是: 如何使共享发展可持续？从2020年全面建成小康社会的第一个百年奋斗目标，到2050年全面建成社会主义现代化国家的第二个百年奋斗目标，五大发展理念依然至关重要。我在保持观察。我是罗伯特·劳伦斯·库恩。

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