注意了！这个法案或让美国在打压中国路上走到黑
大家好，欢迎收看《冠察天下》，我是王冠。
中美双方终于在气候问题上达成合作，对于长期观察中美关系的人而言，这是一个令人欣慰的消息。我无意言语刻薄，但谁还记得美国上次停止诋毁中国，并对华合作是什么时候？许多人认为在特朗普领导美国走了四年弯路之后，拜登开展对华合作应对气候变化恰逢其时，毕竟气候变化是真实存在的威胁。
过去七年是地球上气温最高的七年，其中2016年和2020年的气温创下历史最高水平。自1993年以来，格陵兰岛和南极洲每年有超过4000亿吨的冰山消融，导致全球海平面在上个世纪上升了约20厘米。风暴和干旱等极端天气事件的频率和强度都有所增加。因此人们很高兴看到美国重新加入巴黎气候协定，并承诺到2030年减少50%的碳排放。人们也很高兴看到中国重申其目标，即力争2030年前实现碳达峰，2060年前实现碳中和。
但也有消息令人感到不安。在领导人气候峰会举行之际，美国国会参议院外交关系委员会通过了一项涉华法案，名为《2021年战略竞争法案》。大家注意了！这可能是日后最重要的一项涉华法案。它会使拜登在整个任期内与中国保持对抗关系，并且不以他的个人意志为转移。这份280页的法案充斥着华盛顿的各种政治术语，但它的核心要义可以归纳为以下几点。
Guys, welcome to Reality Check. I am Wang Guan.
China and the United States are finally working together on climate. And that's comforting news for those of us who've been following this relationship. I mean, I don't want to sound mean but when was the last time Washington stopped vilifying Beijing and worked with it on anything? Many believe after "the four lost years" of Trump, it's high time Biden worked with China to tackle climate change, which is a real threat.
The past seven years are the warmest seven for our planet, with 2016 and 2020 being the hottest two. Greenland and Antarctica lost over 400 billion tons of ice per year since 1993. As a result, global sea level rose about 20 centimeters in the last century. And there's an increase in both frequency and intensity of extreme weather events such as storms and droughts. So it is good to see the U.S. rejoining the Paris Climate agreement and pledging to cut carbon emissions by 50% by 2030. And it’s also good to see China reaffirming its target of reaching emissions' peak by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060.
But there's disturbing news too. As the climate conference takes place, the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee passed a China legislation called Strategic Competition Act. Attention guys. This could be one of the most important legislations on China going forward, which locks Biden into a confrontational relationship with China throughout his time in office, whether he likes it or not. The 280-page bill is filled with Washington’s political jargons but what it really proposes are the following:
第一，扩大对中国的战略遏制。该法案向美国盟友和伙伴国家的军队提供10亿美元支持用于制衡中国，并“重申美国对印太地区盟友和伙伴国家的承诺”。
第二，加大力度干涉中国内政。该法案提出加大“普世价值”和“人权保障措施”等领域的资金投入，包括向美国国务院提供1000万美元的资金用于“促进香港特区的民主”，它还将加强台湾防务，支持西藏地区实现“真正的自治”，并对新疆实施更多制裁，理由是所谓的“强迫绝育”和“强迫劳动”。
第三，将经济关系安全化。该法案赋予美国外国投资委员会更大的权力，以应对中国科技公司、出口商、和在美上市的中国公司所带来的国家安全风险，对抗所谓的中国“掠夺性”国际经济行为。
第四，继续开展意识形态方面的斗争。该法案要求对抗中共在美国的影响及其“恶意行动”，重点会放在对美国大学的整顿上。对中方提供的捐赠和合同进行更严格的审查。
Number one, expanding strategic containment of China. The bill gives one billion dollars to the militaries of U.S. allies and partners in an effort to counter China through "reaffirming America’s commitment to its allies and partners in Indo-Pacific".
Number two, doubling down on interfering in China’s domestic affairs. The bill pushes for more spending in "universal values" and "human rights measures", including $10 million for the State Department to promote “democracy” in Hong Kong. It will also boost Taiwan’s defense, support “genuine autonomy” for Tibet and put more sanctions in Xinjiang regarding "forced sterilization" and "forced labor".
Number three, securitizing the economic relationship. The bill gives greater power to the U.S. Committee on Foreign Investment to pick up on national security risks posed by Chinese tech companies, exporters and firms in U.S. capital markets, to counter so-called "China’s predatory international economic behavior".
And number four, continuing the ideological battle. The bill requires countering the Communist Party of China's influence and "malign operations" in America especially in US universities, with more robust review on gifts and contracts coming from China.
一位熟悉情况的前美国国会议员告诉我，参议院和众议院 “保证会通过”这项法案，然后由总统签署成为法律。我来谈几点看法。很多所谓的制华理由都是基于想象，而非事实。还记得所谓的“感知威胁”是如何加剧美苏冲突，并一语成谶地诱发了冷战吗？这是目前全世界最不希望看到的事情，我们不想看到新一轮的红色恐慌，类似古巴导弹危机或军备竞赛之类的事件重演。
此外，这项法案更多反映的是华盛顿精英们的心态，即世界上不能存在与美国“势均力敌的竞争对手”。威尔逊中心的罗伯特·戴利对此进行了归纳总结，我们来听听。
我们仍要限制中国的发展，只因为我们不想有竞争对手。这个主张跟信仰无关，无视了那些几十年来沿着我们给世界制定好的路线为人类繁荣而努力的人们。如果中国真要成功了，不管信仰如何，我们都必须加以阻止。哪怕中国重新陷入贫困，也在所不惜。
这种观点可真有意思，因为仔细想一想，美国社会中大部分人都信奉社会达尔文主义，也就是“适者生存”。更勤奋，更有能力的人会最终胜出，为什么他们就不能对中国采取类似的态度？
归根到底，《2021年战略竞争法案》为了少数人的利益而牺牲了多数人的利益。政客们为了转移视线，通常会树立一个敌人，然后发动国内群众，针对这个敌人制造民意共识。然而在当今时代，许多问题需要美国和中国合作解决，而非相互对抗——从疫情防控到疫苗研发，从经济复苏到应对气候变化和保护地球。
A few quick thoughts here. Many reasons cited as necessary to confront China are based on imagination, not reality. Remember how the "perceived threat" heightened the clash between the U.S. and the former Soviet Union and then became a self-fulling prophecy for the cold war? The world doesn't need this right now. We don’t need another red scare, another Cuban Missile Crisis or another arms race.
In addition, this bill is a projection of a mentality widely held by Washington elites which says there can be no "near-peer competitor" for America. Robert Daly at Wilson Center summed it all up. Listen.
We should still try to limit their growth, merely because we shouldn't have a peer competitor. That is the proposition regardless of beliefs, regardless of people striving for human flourishing along the lines that we have been prescribing to the world for decades. If they actually appear to be succeeding, regardless of their beliefs, we must stop them. Even if it means pushing them back toward poverty.
This is interesting because if you think about it, a large chunk of the American society love to talk about social Darwinism... the survival of the fittest...the more hard-working and capable coming up on top. Why can't they adopt a similar attitude towards China?
Finally, the Strategic Competition Act sacrifices the interests of many for those of the few. It's convenient for politicians to find an enemy, rally the mass and manufacture consent around it. But in this day and age, so many issues require U.S. and China working with each together not against each other, from COVID and vaccines, to economic recovery to climate and protecting our planet earth.