纪念基辛格访华50周年，聆听智者的真知灼见

Editor's note: Tao Wenzhao is a senior research fellow at the Institute of American Studies, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN. 

编者按：作者是中国社会科学院美国研究所资深研究员陶文钊。文章不代表CGTN立场。

50年前的1971年7月，时任美国总统国家安全事务助理的基辛格博士对中国进行了一次秘密访问。当时，中美之间除了保留了大使级会谈这一渠道，两国之间鲜有别的交流、沟通的渠道；获取信息的方式又不像现在这样多样，两国是经过了小心翼翼的尝试、猜测、接触、摸底，并通过第三方传递消息才将信将疑地“走”到一起的。但访问取得圆满成功，为第二年尼克松总统的破冰之旅奠定了基础，开启了中美关系正常化的进程。

Fifty years ago, then U.S. National Security Advisor Dr. Henry Kissinger paid a secret visit to China. At the time, China and the U.S. almost had no vessels for communication other than ambassador-level talks, and access to information was not as diverse as it is today. Kissinger's trip in July 1971, which turned out to be a great success, was made possible after cautious, tentative, skeptical contacts between the two countries, with messages exchanged through third parties. It paved the way for President Richard Nixon's ice-breaking visit to China the following year, which marked the beginning of the normalization of bilateral ties.

为什么中美在经过20年的敌对和隔绝之后，经过基辛格这次访问就能扭转两国关系的方向呢？笔者认为主要有两个原因。从客观上说，中美两国都感受到苏联扩张的威胁。对中国来说，苏联是对中国国家安全的主要威胁。而美国则把苏联在第三世界的扩张视为对美国全球地位的最大挑战。

How could China and the U.S., after 20 years living in isolation from and hostility towards each other, see their relations steered into a new direction by Kissinger's visit? Two reasons stand out. One is that both countries felt threatened by the expansion of the Soviet Union. While China saw the threat mainly from the lens of national security, for the U.S., the Soviet expansion in the Third World posed the biggest challenge to its global standing.

从主观上说，中美双方以诚相待，基辛格与周恩来的会谈直奔中美关系中最核心、最敏感的话题。双方都清楚，两国最大的利益冲突是在台湾问题上。基辛格向周恩来承诺，关于台湾的政治前景，美国政府不支持“两个中国”、“一中一台”的解决方案，不支持、不鼓励台湾“独立”运动，并表示在解决了台湾问题之后——这将在相对近期内实现——中美之间就完全没有利益冲突了。

The other reason is that the two parties had a sincere and candid talk. Kissinger and Zhou Enlai directly touched upon the Taiwan issue, which was the most sensitive part of Sino-U.S. relations and also where the national interest of the two countries clashed most intensely. On Taiwan's political prospects, Kissinger promised that the U.S. government would not stand for a "two Chinas" or a "one China, one Taiwan" approach, nor would it support or encourage Taiwan "independence" movements. China and the U.S., he added, would have zero conflict of interest after the resolution of the Taiwan issue, which could be realized in a relatively short time frame.

他还预见，两岸关系的演变会朝着中方揭示的方向发展。基辛格还保证，美国要同中国来往，决不会对中国进攻，决不会同自己的盟国和对手进行勾结针对中国。美方向中方的上述保证对于中美和解具有关键意义。没有这样的“交底”，“破冰”是进行不下去的。诚然，关系正常化需要有一个过程。但重要的是，两国关系已经转向了正常化。

Kissinger also foresaw that cross-strait relations would move in the direction set out by Beijing and promised that the U.S. would engage with China, never attack China and never collude with its allies or rivals against China. These messages conveyed by Washington were the key to Sino-American reconciliation. Were China not made aware of such a position on the U.S. side, Nixon's upcoming trip would have broken no ice. Of course, normalization of relations took time, but what was important was that the process was started.

U.S.President Richard Nixon, (2nd L) with National Security Advisor Henry Kissinger (1st L) as they meet for talks with Chinese Premier Zhou Enlai (2nd R), in Beijing, China, February 22, 1972. /Getty

50年后，人们特别怀念基辛格的访问，希望再有一个基辛格，在当今中美关系处于十字路口的严峻时刻，使美国对华政策能重回接触的轨道、重回建设性合作的轨道。

Fifty years on, Kissinger's China visit is still being remembered. Today, as Sino-U.S. relations come to yet another crossroad, people hope there will be another Henry Kissinger to bring America's China policy back on the track of engagement and constructive cooperation.

这种心情不难理解，但毕竟国际形势和两国关系的状况都大不相同了，两国国内的状况也大不相同了。特朗普政府实行了完全错误的对华政策，给中美关系带来了严重的伤害。人们本来希望拜登新政府能拨乱反正，使中美关系重回正轨。但拜登新政府受到种种牵制和掣肘，尤其是受制于明年的中期选举，对特朗普政府的做法因袭的多、纠正的少，一再把中美关系称为“竞争、合作、对抗的混合物”，公然声称“接触的时期已经结束”，美国对华政策“主导的模式将是竞争”。

While this is understandable, both the international circumstances and the shape of bilateral relations look drastically different from what they were half a century ago, and so is the case with the two countries' internal situations. Donald Trump's China policy, which was wrong to the core, dealt a deadly blow to bilateral relations. Much hope was placed on the new administration to right the wrong and bring China-U.S. relations back on track. However, Washington under Biden, with its hands tied by all sorts of constraints, especially next year's mid-term elections, has inherited its predecessor's policies more than it has rectified them. The new government has called the bilateral relations a mix of competition, cooperation and conflict, openly claiming that "the period that was broadly described as engagement has come to an end," that the U.S. policy toward China will now operate under "a new set of strategic parameters," and that "the dominant paradigm is going to be competition." 

基辛格博士虽然已经98岁高龄，但他仍然心心念念惦记着中美关系，并且不断对两国关系的现状发表真知灼见，既有深深的忧虑，又有发人深思的警告。从去年大选前后到现在，他就接受过多次媒体采访。其中有几点令人印象特别深刻。

At the grand old age of 98, Dr. Kissinger still has his mind on China-U.S. relations and constantly shares his insightful views in this regard, both showing deep concern and sending out awakening alarms. After last year's U.S. general election, he has done several interviews with the media. A few of his views are particularly impressive.

第一，如何评价当初与中国的和解？基辛格非常肯定地认为，对华开放是对世界秩序的重要贡献。经过了50年发展，需要西方和中国双方的智慧对关系进行调整，在国际体系的现代环境中，国家将不再被划分为主导国家和依从国家。

First, when asked to comment on the initial thawing of relations between China and the U.S., Kissinger said, with firm belief, that the opening to China was a significant contribution to the world order, and that a wholesome adjustment of bilateral ties, which had evolved for 50 years, required wisdom on both sides. In a modern global system, he noted, the concepts of dominant and subordinate states would no longer work.

第二，如何看待中国的复兴？基辛格认为，中国的复兴不应令人惊讶，几千年来它一直是一个大国，在不同的历史时代都是。但他同时提出，中国复兴的后果是美国有史以来第一次面对一个在经济上可能会与自己势均力敌并且善于处理国际事务的国家。因此，如何处理对华关系对美国才是一个挑战。

Second, on China's rejuvenation, Kissinger said nothing surprising about it as the country had been a great power across different historical periods over thousands of years. Nevertheless, he also mentioned that as a result of China's rejuvenation, the U.S. would have to, for the first time in history, deal with a country that was not just almost an economic equal, but also good at handling global affairs. In this sense, framing the right approach to China will be a great challenge for the United States.

第三，如何看待中美两国意识形态的分歧？他回顾当年促使两国关系时正常化时美方的考量，表示当时尼克松总统和他都不认为中国的意识形态必然会因为美中和解而发生改变。未来的问题将是意识形态冲突会在多大程度上影响美中关系。尼克松1972年2月在访华的答谢宴会上说：“你们深信你们的制度，我们同样深信我们的制度。我们在这里聚会，并不是由于我们有共同的信仰，而是由于我们有共同的利益和共同的希望”。这个表态与基辛格的说法是一致的。拜登政府提出要“建立对抗中国的民主国家联盟”，基辛格对此表示，建立针对特定国家的联盟是不明智的。

Third, while asked about his views on the ideological differences between the two countries, Kissinger recalled the situation when the decision was made to normalize bilateral relations, saying that neither President Nixon nor he believed China's ideology would inevitably change as a result of the reconciliation. The real question in the future, he pointed out, would be about the extent to which ideological differences affect bilateral relations. In his toast at a banquet honoring the Chinese Premier during his China visit in February 1972, Nixon said, "You believe deeply in your system, and we believe just as deeply in ours. It is not our common beliefs that have brought us together here, but our common interests and our common hope…" This is in line with Kissinger's remarks. On what the Biden administration said about building an anti-China coalition of democracies, Kissinger said it was unwise to form a coalition against any country.

第四，他批评特朗普无限度地采取了对抗性最强的谈判方式，对特朗普时期中美关系的自由落体式的恶化表示了深深的担忧，认为世界不应该陷入第一次世界大战前那样的局面。如果放任两国关系在这种不断升级的境地中越陷越深，世界将滑向一场堪比第一次世界大战的灾难。

Fourth, Kissinger criticized Trump's excessive use of a maximally confrontational negotiation method and expressed his deep concern over the free fall of China-U.S. relations during the Trump years. Holding that the world should not slip into where it was prior to World War I, he believed that if China and the U.S. were allowed to be locked in an unchecked escalation of tensions, the world would descend into a disaster comparable to World War I.

第五，为了避免这样的灾难，他明确表示，“不主张对中国展开讨伐”，美国应乐于接受与中国共存，即双方在坚持自身价值观和目标的同时并不谋求打垮对手，而是把共存置于追求主宰地位之上。做法是：提出积极的目标，放弃遏制言论；在两国领导人信任的代表之间建立一种机制，保持高层接触；寻找合作的契机，如共同应对新冠疫情；不利用现代技术使对抗持久化。

Fifth, to avoid a disaster like this, Kissinger expressly said that he was "not in favor of a crusade against China," and that the U.S. should willingly accept coexistence. The two countries, he noted, should not seek to crush each other while pursuing their own values and goals, but put coexistence above dominance.

To this end, they needed to set positive objectives and abandon containment narratives, establish a mechanism between trusted representatives on the two sides to maintain high-level contacts, look for opportunities to cooperate – for example, those arising from the battle against COVID-19, and not perpetuate confrontation using modern technologies.

希望美国决策者认真听取基辛格博士的这些警告和建议，从中汲取智慧，避免使中美关系走上对抗的道路，给两国和国际社会都带来不幸。

It is hoped that American decision-makers will heed Dr. Kissinger's warnings and advice and draw wisdom from them to avoid further U.S.-China confrontation, as well as the suffering it might subsequently inflict on the two countries and the rest of the international community.

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