对话思想者｜郝福满：中国正成为全球科技创新的引领者
Wang Guan: Hello and welcome to Global Thinkers. I'm Wang Guan in Beijing. Today, it is our pleasure to have with us Professor Bert Hofman. He is the Director of East Asian Institute at National University of Singapore. He is also the former World Bank Country Director for China, Korea and Mongolia. Professor Hofman, it is our pleasure to have you with us.
王冠：大家好，欢迎收看《对话思想者》节目。我是王冠，这里是北京。今天，我们很高兴请到了郝福满教授，新加坡国立大学东亚研究所主任，世界银行中国局、韩国局、蒙古局前局长。郝福满教授，很高兴邀请您做客本期节目。
Professor Hofman, China's economy grew by 12.7% in the first half of 2021. What is your reading of this figure? And what does this tell you about the potential trajectory of Chinese economy?
郝福满教授，2021年上半年中国经济增长了12.7%。您如何解读这一数字？您如何看待中国经济的潜在发展轨迹？
Bert Hofman: Well, China of course did very well in containing the impact of COVID-19. And already last year it was one of the few economies that showed positive growth at 2.3%. The first quarter was an enormous jump at 18% growth, but it was because the first quarter in 2020 was quite dismal.
郝福满：中国在疫情防控方面表现出色。去年，中国成为少数几个实现正增长的经济体之一，经济增速达到2.3%。今年一季度中国国内生产总值大幅增长，同比超过18%，这也是因为去年的基数较低。
The second quarter is more normal and that is 7.9% growth. That is more or less what is expected. It's quite a bit of dynamism. If you look at the quarter-on-quarter numbers, they are quite positive. So, it seems that China is well on track to have a very decent growth at about 8% - 8.5% growth this year, well more than Premier Li Keqiang's minimum 6%. And that's a very good sign.
今年第二季度的经济增长回归正常水平，增长7.9%。基本符合预期，展现了经济的活力。如果你看一下季度环比数据，整体上呈现正增长态势。今年中国经济很有可能实现不错的增长，增速有望达到8%至8.5%左右，远超李克强总理提出实现6%以上增长的预期目标。这是一个非常好的迹象。
There are some issues. With the growth, it still relies quite a bit on external demand. Exports have been doing really well, but that's in part because the rest of the world hasn't yet fully recovered. So, that dynamism will dissipate over time as the rest of the world start producing again and exporting again.
当然，这个过程中存在一些挑战。目前的经济增长结构仍相当依赖外部需求。出口表现出色，但这也是因为世界其他国家经济尚未完全恢复。因此，随着世界其他国家恢复生产和出口，这一优势将会逐渐消失。
And second, consumption has still been lagging. It's been doing okay in the second quarter, but overall consumption growth is still not the real driver of the economy that the authorities would like to see.
此外，中国的国内消费水平仍然较低。中国第二季度的消费数据表现不错，但总体上消费仍然没有达到政府预期，没有成为经济的真正驱动力。
Wang Guan: Yeah, why do you think that's the case?
王冠：您认为消费水平较低的原因是什么？
Bert Hofman: Well, there's a couple of things. One is because household incomes have not fully recovered yet. There've been a number of sectors, especially in the service sector. They have not yet fully recovered. They have not yet all rehired all the people that were unemployed. So, there's a bit of lagging there.
郝福满：有这几个原因。第一，家庭收入尚未完全恢复至疫情前水平。一些行业，特别是服务业，还未完全恢复。那些当初因疫情而失业的人员还没有全部回到工作岗位，而这会影响消费。
Second, because of China's social safety net, it's still not so much complete. Some people felt and feel that they should save more to be prepared for any other eventuality in the future. And that means they consume less as a share of their income.
第二，因为中国的社会保障体系目前依然不健全。一些人觉得他们需要多存钱，为将来可能出现的突发事件做好准备。这意味着他们消费占收入的比重会下降。
Third, even though overall the household sector has recovered quite well, as in other countries, it has been quite uneven and those that are highly educated that work in the high-tech sector, they do really well and they've gotten a boost frankly from COVID-19 because there's so much more demand of their services, whereas others don't do so well. So income distribution has taken a bit of a hit and that's not that good for consumption either. So, there are a number of factors that drive this issue of consumption lagging the overall recovery. As some of it will resolve over time, but others are over a more structural concern.
第三，尽管中国与其他国家一样，家庭收入总体恢复得很好，但却存在不均衡的现象。对于一些受过高等教育和高科技行业的从业者，疫情期间，对他们服务的需求激增使得他们的日子过得较好，而其他行业人们的日子并不好过。因此，收入分配更加不平等也会抑制消费。有许多因素导致消费水平的增长滞后于整体复苏，其中的一些会随着时间的推移而得到解决，但其他因素则更多的是结构性问题。
And again, in the 14th Five-Year Plan, it's well recognized, but there's a whole range of reforms that need to happen to get consumption up as a share of GDP. Right now, it's below 40%, which is really quite low compared to the rest of the world - a household consumption that is - really quite low compared to the rest of the world, most countries at 55%, 60% or even higher.
“十四五”规划充分体现了要通过一系列改革举措来提高消费占国内生产总值的比重。目前，这一占比低于40%，这与世界其他国家相比的确比较低。中国的家庭消费与世界其他国家相比也确实很低，大多数国家的这一比例在55%到60%左右，甚至更高。
And it's an important factor in demand. So, that switch that China is only at the start of will take time and effort and it will take reforms in the social safety net, in the pension system, in the Hukou system. All those factors that would, in the end, result in a higher share of consumption in GDP.
这是市场需求的一个重要因素。目前，中国还是处于起步阶段，需要投入时间和努力，改革社会保障体系、养老金、户籍制度等等。所有这些因素的改革，最终将促进消费占国内生产总值比重的提升。
Wang Guan: How do you think China can tap into its indigenous growth and indigenous innovation front when it comes to boosting productivity through technology given America's intention on containing China?
王冠：美国有意遏制中国的科技发展，您认为中国应该如何通过科技提高生产力实现自主发展和自主创新？
Bert Hofman: Well, look, it's a very central question for today. And I think China is well underway to emerge as a technological super power. In some areas, it's already leading. If you look at photovoltaics or solar panels, if you look at high-speed rail, if you look at electric vehicles, China is ahead. In some areas, it is compatible with the United States and with Europe, saying artificial intelligence and others. But then in a whole range of other areas, it's still learning, it's still behind. China is now investing almost as much as Europe, not as much as the United States, but almost as much as Europe at 2.3% of GDP, so it's catching up.
郝福满：这是目前一个非常核心的问题，我认为中国正在逐渐成为一个科技超级大国。在某些领域，中国已经处于领先地位。例如，在光伏及太阳能电池板技术、高铁、电动汽车等行业，中国已经处于领先地位；在另一些领域，中国已经与美国、欧洲实力相当，例如人工智能等。但在其他一些领域，中国还在不断学习，还相对落后。目前，中国的研发投资与欧洲相当，但还没有美国那么多，占国内生产总值的比重为2.3%左右，中国正在迎头赶上。
At the same time, technology and research and development is also a long game. You don't learn it overnight. So, if you look at it in a longer term perspective - what China has invested, say, over the past 25 years - that is still much less than the United States or Europe. So China is still catching up in a whole range of areas, and that means, openness and international exchange is still very, very important for China. If that's not there, if that's not possible, it will have to rely more on domestic innovation.
此外，科技和研发需要长期投入，不可能一蹴而就。因此，长远来看，中国在过去25年里的科研投入仍然比欧美低很多。中国在很多领域仍在努力赶上。这意味着对外开放和国际交流对中国而言非常重要。如果这些不可能完全实现，那么中国就必须更多地依靠国内创新。
And of course, China being China, they have recognized that. And the 14th Five-Year Plan has this focus on technology on spending more on the foundation of technology, the basic technologies and research that drives whole new areas of technology such as integrated circuits. And also the organization of China's R&D industry is part of the Five-Year Plan.
当然，中国已经认识到这一点。“十四五”规划重点强调科技创新，要加大基础研究的投入。基础研究能够推动各个新兴技术领域的发展，如集成电路产业。打造中国的研发产业也是中国五年规划的重要组成部分。
So, as they say, necessity is the mother of invention. And I think China now finds it necessary to rely more on its domestic technology and it will do so. Of course, it's still a loss that China is still behind in, say, integrated circuits. The most sophisticated chips, China cannot yet produce, because it still doesn't have the technology to do so. I'm from the Netherlands. There's a Dutch company that makes lithography ASML, it is called. It's a very sophisticated technology. 35 years of experience in building that technology. And of course China is still a little bit behind, but it will get there.
有谚语说，需求是创造之母。中国已经认识到应当更加依靠自主创新，也将会坚持实践，知行合一。尽管中国在某些领域仍然处于落后地位，比如说集成电路。目前，中国还无法生产最复杂的芯片，中国仍未掌握该项技术。我来自荷兰，有一家叫阿斯麦的荷兰公司专门生产光刻机，光刻技术相当复杂，这家公司积累了35年的技术经验。尽管中国目前在一些领域仍稍微落后，但它终会跻身前列。