观察家 | 全面建成小康社会 III ——以史为鉴，开创未来

Historians of the future may well look back on President Xi Jinping's July 1 speech celebrating the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Communist Party of China as marking the axial transition between China's two centenary goals: the first, building a "moderately prosperous society", achieved now on the Party's centennial, and the second, building a "great modern socialist nation in all respects", intended by New China's centennial in 2049.  

未来，当历史学家们回顾习近平主席在庆祝中国共产党成立100周年大会上的讲话时

会认为它标志着中国站在 “两个一百年”奋斗目标的历史交汇点上。第一是“全面建成小康社会”这个百年奋斗目标已经在建党百年之际实现。第二个是将中国 “全面建成社会主义现代化强国”这个目标计划于2049年新中国成立百年之际实现。

Xi's speech was looking backwards and looking forwards, praising the Party's past achievements and anticipating the Party's future achievements. The Party, certainly, was at center stage. Following the speech, each pillar of China's governance system met and reviewed the speech in order to implement its directives: the government (State Council), legislature, (NPC), consultative body (CPPCC), and anti-corruption authority (CCDI).

习主席的讲话既回顾过去又展望未来，既歌颂了党的历史成就又展望了党未来大有可为之处，始终将中国共产党放在中心位置。讲话结束后，中国政治体系的各主要部门纷纷开会学习习主席讲话精神，并执行有关指示：包括政府（国务院）， 立法机构（人大），政治协商机构（政协）和纪检机构（中纪委）。

A general readout highlighted five points of understanding, all of which, unsurprisingly, focused on the CPC, the Party. 

习主席的重要讲话精神主要体现在五个方面，全部聚焦于中国共产党。

First, understand the great achievements the CPC has made for the nation and people, said to be the most magnificent epic in the history of the Chinese nation for thousands of years. 

第一、 领会中国共产党带领国家和人民取得的伟大成就，中国共产党书写了中华民族几千年历史上最恢宏的史诗。

Second, understand the CPC's 100 years of experience and enlightenment, 

and uphold and develop socialism with Chinese characteristics. 

第二、 领会中国共产党百年来的经验和启示，坚持和发展中国特色社会主义。

Third, understand the CPC's century of struggle, and strive unremittingly to realize the Chinese dream of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

第三 、领会中国共产党的百年奋斗历程，为实现中华民族伟大复兴的中国梦不懈奋斗。

Fourth, understand the great party-building spirit and never lose the iron will of Communism. 

第四、 领会伟大的党建精神，永不丧失共产主义的钢铁意志。

Fifth, understand that the CPC is the mainstay of the Chinese people, and continue to promote the great new project of Party building. 

第五、 领会中国共产党是中国人民的主心骨，不断推进党的建设新的伟大工程。

As I said, the Party was the center of attention. What, then, might future historians, say about President Xi's speech? 

我说过，党是此次讲话内容的核心。那么，未来， 历史学家们会如何评价习主席的讲话？

Here are three long-tail trends that they might follow:

以下是他们可能会持续关注的三大长期趋势

1) How sustainable were advances in standards of living of China's poor and relatively poor? Was there backsliding? How effective was the rural vitalization strategy in transforming the countryside and in reducing the gaps between urban and rural areas?

1)中国贫困人口和相对贫困人口的生活水平能否持续提高？是否有倒退现象？乡村振兴战略在改变农村面貌和缩小城乡差距方面的效果如何？

2) How effective was China in becoming self-sufficient in science and technology, especially in high tech, and most especially in artificial intelligence and in the manufacturing of state-of-the-art semiconductors?

2) 中国是否能实现科技自立自强，尤其是在人工智能和先进半导体制造等高科技领域？

3) How deftly did China handle issues of information and big data, from access and control to economic leverage and personal privacy? 

3) 中国如何灵活地处理信息和大数据方面的问题？包括信息的访问和控制以及经济杠杆作用和个人隐私问题。

Speaking personally, when I heard President Xi, in his July 1, 2021 speech, combining both appreciation of the past and expectations for the future, it resonated with what Xi told me personally in 2006, when he was Party Secretary of Zhejiang Province. "It's fair to say that we have achieved successes," Xi said at the time, "nevertheless we should have a cautious appraisal of our accomplishments." He called for China to aspire to "our next higher goal," and to recognize "the gap between where we are and where we have to go." He described this process as "persistent and unremitting." This, then, is the roadmap to 2049 and to what Xi says is the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.

在我看来，习主席7月1日的重要讲话不仅致敬了党过去的成就, 还展望了中国未来的发展。这与他在2006年担任浙江省委书记时亲自对我说的话遥相呼应。“客观地说，我们已经取得了成功“，习近平当时说，“但是我们应该谨慎评价自己的成绩”。他号召中国瞄准下一个更高的目标还要认识到现实与理想之间的差距，他将此描述为一个坚持不懈的过程。这就是中国通往2049年的路线图，也是通往习近平所说的中华民族伟大复兴的路线图。

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