同异 ｜中美关系是否正在步入“新常态”？

The virtual meeting between the Chinese and American presidents on November 16 ended as most expected: no major breakthroughs or agreements, but with commitments to push the relationship in a positive direction.

中美领导人11月16日的视频会晤如很多人预测的那样结束了：会晤并没未取得重大进展或是达成重要协议。但双方都承诺将继续推动两国关系朝积极的方向发展。

That’s good.

这值得称赞。

There’s a widely-used analogy in international relations: “Foreign policy is like a big ship that can’t turn on a dime.” When Joe Biden took office in January, the situation between China and the U.S. was bad. They were said to be “decoupling” and on the brink of the new Cold War. Things were unquestionably deteriorating.

在国际关系中有一个广为流传的类比：外交政策就像是一艘巨轮，无法轻易转向。当拜登一月份上任时，中美关系处境艰难。两国关系被形容成将要脱钩或是处于新冷战的边缘。状况毫无疑问地在恶化。

Turning it around is a very challenging job. The two countries have to stop the bleeding first, quiet things down, and then move forward in a more positive direction.

改变这个状况是很有挑战性的。两国首先要止血，平息事态，然后才能朝更为积极的方向迈进。

A lot of progress has been made. The leaders have had two phone calls before this meeting; there was a joint declaration on climate change at COP26; The tariff war has cooled; and thorny issues like the detention of Huawei’s CFO in Canada have largely been put aside.

双方已经取得了诸多进展。在此次会晤之前，两位领导人已经通过两次电话；中美在第26届联合国气候变化大会（COP26）上发表了联合宣言；关税战已降温；加拿大扣押华为首席财务官等一系列棘手问题也逐步得到了解决。

But we aren’t out of the woods. The two countries don’t agree on the fundamental nature of the relationship. America is digging into the “competition” doctrine, while China places more emphasis on cooperation. Just look at the two leaders’ opening remarks. Biden started talking about competition a few paragraphs in, but Xi didn’t mention the word “competition” once.

但中美关系尚未摆脱困境。两国在双边关系的根本性质上存在分歧。美国沉迷于“竞争主义”，中国则更强调合作。两位领导人视频会晤的开场致辞就证明了这一点。仅仅几段话过后，拜登便开始谈论竞争；而从始至终，习主席都未提及“竞争”一词。

This “new normal”, so to speak, between the two countries remains ill-defined. The past 10 months have been more about trying to resolve individual problems and work together on a handful of issues that aren’t particularly controversial. But the question of what the China-U.S. relationship will be in this new era still needs to be answered.

这个所谓的中美“新常态”到现在仍定义不明确。过去10个月中，双方更多的是在解决个别问题以及在一些争议性不大的事情上进行合作。但新时期的中美关系到底是什么样的却仍未有答案。

This virtual meeting between the two leaders is the start of an answer. The meeting ended with both sides agreeing to push the China-U.S. relationship back onto a healthy and stable path. It’s going to be a slow and occasionally painful process to figure out the specifics.

两位领导人的视频会晤为寻找答案迈出了第一步。会上，双方同意推动中美关系重回健康稳定的发展轨道。敲定具体细节则会是漫长又坎坷的过程。

There’s been no relationship like this before. The two countries are deeply interdependent yet have fierce disagreements on many major issues. We need patience and time to sort things out, sometimes by talking to each other and sometimes by trial-and-error.

中美关系是没有先例可以借鉴的。两国相互依赖，却在很多重大问题上针锋相对。两国需要耐心和时间来解决问题，有时是通过沟通，有时则需要反复试验。

The bottom line is that the China-U.S. relationship, whatever its final construct, will define this century. If we want peace and prosperity, we should all work toward a more positive framework.

底线是，中美关系无论最终走向何方，都将决定整个世界21世纪的走向。如果和平和繁荣是我们心之所愿，那么我们就应携手合作，构筑更积极的双边关系框架。

Luckily, the momentum seems to be headed in that direction.  

幸运的是，形势似乎正在朝这个方向发展。

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