CGTN时评丨“混合战争”与美国霸权的隐秘危机

Editor's note: America's war game has long gone beyond hot conflicts that take military operations as the mainstay. The country, as the unipolar hegemon, became even bolder in carrying out interventions overseas and developed what is known as "hybrid warfare". For all the short-term benefit the U.S. has reaped, just as much long-term damage is inflicted upon itself. Episode 8 is on the hidden crisis for American hegemony.

2021年7月，有着“加勒比海的明珠”之称的古巴首都哈瓦那，迎来一个极不平静的夏天。数千名古巴人上街游行，与警察对峙。这是1994年以来古巴发生的首次大规模反政府示威游行。

吊诡的是，古巴的抗议发生前，美国社交媒体上就出现了“SOSCuba”的话题标签，且有不少新注册账号频频转发未经证实的消息，而支持古巴官方的言论则被封禁。游行过程中，西方媒体积极宣传造势，《纽约时报》等媒体甚至把一张支持古巴政府的集会照片，描述为反政府示威场景，却对古巴政府主动与社区接触的做法选择性失明；游行结束后，美国政客还继续鼓动古巴人通过暴动谋取合法权益，把斗争重点从经济民生转向意识形态对抗。

面对压力，古巴共产党中央第一书记、国家主席迪亚斯•卡内尔（Miguel Diaz-Canel）直言不讳地指出，美国方面资助和煽动了这次骚乱，古巴民众要上街“保卫革命”。事实上，这并不是美国第一次干涉古巴内政。过去60多年，美国一面对古巴实施经济封锁，使这个国家长期处于经济困境之中；一面以推行民主之名，长期资助古巴国内的反政府力量，借机引发古巴社会混乱，试图推翻现政府、扶植亲美代理人。

美国排演的这场“哈瓦那之夏”，正是典型的“颜色革命”（Color Revolution）。今天，颜色革命的目的和手法已被越来越多人所看穿，但由于它一般不涉及军事对抗，人们往往会低估其危害。殊不知，颜色革命也是某种意义上的战争形态，它是美国“混合战争”（Hybrid Warfare）的重要组成部分。而混合战争，已成为后冷战时代以来美国维持霸权地位、实现全球统治的主要手段。

For the Cuban capital Havana, known as the pearl of the Caribbean, July 2021 was an unsettling summer month. Thousands of Cubans took to the streets and confronted the police, marking the first anti-government mass protest in the country since 1994.

Strangely, prior to the protest, the hashtag "SOSCuba" was seen on American social media. While many newly-created accounts kept forwarding unverified information, comments supporting the Cuban government were banned.

During the protest, Western media actively propagated in their manipulative reports. Some, including The New York Times, even captioned a photo of a pro-government rally as an anti-government one, while deliberately left out the effort of the Cuban government to engage with communities.

After the protest, American politicians continued to instigate Cubans to fight for their "legitimate rights" through riots, steering the focus of confrontation away from the economic to the ideological domain.

Under pressure, the first secretary of the Cuban Communist Party and Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel bluntly claimed it was the U.S. that funded and instigated the unrest, and called on the Cuban people to walk onto the streets to "defend" the revolution.

In fact, it was not the first time that the U.S. had intervened in Cuba's internal affairs. Over the past 60 years, Washington's economic blockade has put Cuba in constant economic difficulty. Meanwhile, the U.S. has long been funding anti-government forces within Cuba and attempting to stir up social unrest in the name of promoting democracy in a bid to topple the incumbent government and develop pro-America proxies.

This "Havanan Summer" staged by the U.S. is a typical color revolution. Its purposes and patterns are increasingly known in this day and age. Nevertheless, its harm is usually underrated as military confrontation is rarely involved. The color revolution is a form of war. It constitutes an important component of America's hybrid warfare – the main instrument to maintain America's hegemony and global dominance in the post-Cold War era.

不战而战：何为混合战争？

What is hybrid warfare?

美国的武力游戏，早已不限于以军事行动为主体的热战。冷战以后，成为单极霸权的美国，在实施对外干涉时更加肆无忌惮，以一种更为隐秘的方式扩展出全方位、多领域的“混合战争”形态：通过综合运用谍报战、政治战、外交战、经贸战、金融战、科技战、网络战、法律战、心理战等各种更具隐蔽性、欺骗性和危险性的形式，实现打击国际对手、搞乱他国社会、推翻他国政权、攫取政治经济利益的目的。

这种新型战争形态，花样繁多、烈度不一，它仍以美国的军事实力和热战成果为基础，却颠覆了传统的军事对抗思维，似战又非战，无战而有战，敌对的形式和程度完全取决于美国的利益需要，由此引发的心理恐慌、社会失序、经济危机、政治分裂乃至国家内战等灾难性后果，却由被打击国的人民苦苦承受。

美国混合战争的一个突出特点，是“从敌人内部瓦解敌人”，即在意识形态和人道主义的掩护下，在目标国的内部秘密培植形形色色的“第五纵队”，以非军事活动实现打击乃至摧毁他国的目的。一方面，通过策动和资助，美国在目标国的政治精英和权力部门中培养亲美代理人，在该国社会内部发展反政府组织，对该国政治和社会议程进行遥控；另一方面，通过长期的意识形态影响，瓦解该国人民的传统价值观和道德准则，培育其对美国价值观的认同，使民众误信美国对他们国家的干涉，是以高级文明改造落后文明的“正义之举”。等到时机成熟时，美国与“第五纵队”里应外合，对该国施加经济、政治、外交、心理等多方面压力，激化该国社会政治矛盾，制造大规模骚乱，甚至趁乱推翻政权。如果这些做法仍未达成目的，必要时美军也会以保护人权、民主、商业自由或反对大规模杀伤性武器为由，强行介入。

America's war game has long gone beyond hot conflicts that take military operations as the mainstay. After the Cold War, the country, as the unipolar hegemon, became even bolder in carrying out interventions overseas and developed what is known as "hybrid warfare" that uses all dimensions of state power and is more secretive in approaches.

It uses more covert, deceptive and dangerous methods, such as intelligence wars, political wars, diplomatic wars, trade wars, financial wars, tech wars, cyber wars, legal wars and psychological wars to attack international rivals, destabilize foreign societies, topple foreign governments, and seize political and economic interests.

This new form of warfare is diverse in pattern and intensity. It is built on America's military strength and what the country has achieved through hot wars, but transcends the traditional framework of military confrontation with its pattern and intensity totally dependent on America's national interests. The disastrous consequences it entails such as panic, social disorder, economic crises, political division and civil wars are borne by the people in the target country.

A prominent feature of America's hybrid warfare is the strategy to break the enemy from within, meaning to clandestinely develop a fifth column in the target country under the cover of ideology and humanitarianism, with the aim to strike a blow to the country or even crush it through non-military means.

On the one hand, Washington, instigating propaganda and with financial support, tries to develop pro-America proxies among the political elites and authorities of the target country, nurture anti-government organizations within society, and remotely control the country's political and social agendas.

On the other, the U.S. exerts long-lasting ideological influence to erode traditional values and moral standards among people in the target country and reinforce their identity with American values – all in an attempt to make the public believe that Washington's intervention is a "just deed" where an advanced civilization tries to change a backward one for the better.

When the time is ripe, Washington can collude with the fifth column to put economic, political, diplomatic and psychological pressure on the target country, escalate its social and political malaise, stage mass unrest and even overthrow its government.

If none of this works, the U.S. military may force its way into the country in the name of protecting human rights, democracy and commercial freedom or tackling weapons of mass destruction.

四面出击：唯恐天下不乱

Attack on all fronts

从混合战争的视角看，过去半个世纪以来，美国可谓是四面出击，世界范围内的各种冲突、混乱、恐慌和危机，几乎都有美国的身影。据中国人权研究会统计，从二战结束到2001年，在世界上153个地区发生的248次武装冲突中，美国发起的就多达201场，约占81%。

这其中，中东无疑是最受其害的重灾区。从打击伊拉克、利比亚和叙利亚，到煽动“阿拉伯之春”，美国把中东地区变成了混合战争的试验场。作为地缘政治和能源战略的必争之地，中亚也曾是美式混合战争的角力场。2003年至2005年期间，美国鼓动格鲁吉亚、乌克兰和吉尔吉斯斯坦三国的反对派势力发起大规模抗议活动，最终实现政权更迭，震惊世界。而在拉美，混合战争也是愈演愈烈。在“哈瓦那之夏”发生前，美国在2019年就策动了一场祸乱更广的“拉美之秋”。此外，在东南亚地区，美国针对泰国、柬埔寨、缅甸等国的政治干涉也从未停止，甚至一度引发一些国家的内战危机。

当前，美国混合战争的最大目标，无疑是中俄两国。对俄罗斯，美国不仅动用国际媒体和网络平台开展舆论宣传，丑化俄罗斯政权的国际形象，扰动俄罗斯国内的社会政治思潮，而且积极支持俄罗斯的政治反对派和社会抗议组织相机而动，并利用多种经济制裁手段打击俄罗斯的经济和金融体系。

对中国，美国的混合战争攻势持续数十年，近年来更是加码升级：从打压以华为为代表的中国高科技企业，到单方面挑起贸易战和科技战，从借故“航行自由”扰乱南海局势，到造谣新疆和西藏的人权问题，从插手、资助香港动乱事件，到反复利用台湾牵制中国，这目不暇接的混合战术，目的就在于破坏中国的稳定局面、压制中国的发展势头，进而全面遏制中国在国际舞台的影响力。

In the past 50 years, the tentacles of America's hybrid warfare have been felt on all fronts. The U.S. has played a role in almost all conflicts, chaos, fears and crises across the world. According to statistics from the China Society for Human Rights Studies, between the closing year of World War II and 2001, out of the 248 military conflicts that had occurred in 153 countries and regions, 201, or around 81 percent, were started by the United States.

The Middle East was undoubtedly the hardest hit region. From the wars in Iraq, Libya and Syria, to the Arab Spring, the U.S. turned the region into a testing ground for its hybrid warfare.

Central Asia, due to its indispensable significance in geopolitics and energy strategies, was once a playground for the American-style hybrid warfare, too. Between 2003 and 2005, anti-government forces in Georgia, Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan mounted mass protests at the instigation of the U.S., leading to regime change.

Another target of Washington's hybrid war efforts is Latin America, where the "Latin America Autumn" orchestrated by Washington in 2019 led to even more wide-spread chaos than "Havanan Summer."

Southeast Asia was not left untouched either. Washington's political intervention in countries such as Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar has never stopped, at times even resulting in civil wars.

The top targets of America's hybrid warfare at the moment are apparently China and Russia. On Russia, the U.S. has launched propaganda campaigns through international media and online platforms to tarnish its international image and disturb social and political ideologies within the country. In addition, it actively supported the political opposition and social activist groups in finding the opportune time to stir up trouble, and imposed various economic sanctions to wreck Russia's economic and financial systems.

America's hybrid war efforts against China, which have been going on for decades, have become increasingly aggressive over the past few years. From clamping down on Huawei-represented Chinese high-tech firms to unilaterally starting trade and tech wars; from muddling the South China Sea in the name of freedom of navigation to spreading rumors about human rights in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region and Tibet Autonomous Region; from fueling and funding unrest in Hong Kong to repeatedly using the Taiwan question as a bargaining chip against China, the U.S. cooked up one tactic of hybrid warfare after another in an attempt to destabilize China, slow down its development, and curb its influence on the global arena.

失道寡助：霸权危机四伏

Crises looming large

天下苦混合战争久矣。混合战争在世界范围内的肆虐，已经让许许多多国家和社会陷入冲突泥潭而无法自拔，这与美国四两拨千斤、坐收渔翁之利的场面，形成了鲜明对比。然而，多行不义必自毙。混合战争在帮助美国克制对手的同时，也在无形中消蚀了美国的霸权根基。它给美国带来的短期收益有多大，对美国自身的长期损害就有多重。

第一，混合战争削弱了美国的国际威信，更凸显美国日益强烈的不自信。混合战争每每标榜民主、人权、进步，最后的结果往往是带来政治衰退、人道主义灾难和社会倒退。这反过来抽空了美式价值观的道义基础，人们不再相信美国开出的空头支票，更加质疑美国说辞的冠冕堂皇。另一方面，混合战争的泛滥折射出，处处威慑、草木皆兵成为美国特有的国际存在方式和国际交往心态，这让美国人想象中的敌人要比其实际敌人多得多。这种不安全感将随着美国霸权的衰落而越积越深，它消磨美国人的自信，也可能刺激美国政治进一步走向极化。

第二，混合战争使美国结仇遍天下，也让美国盟友离心离德。放眼望去，全球范围内受到美国公开干涉和秘密操弄的国家不在少数。美国的混合战争，已成为这些国家发展道路上的“绊脚石”。它引发了国际社会强烈不满，也势必积聚更多仇恨。就连美国一直以来的西方盟友，也唯恐避之不及。据媒体报道，2021年法国教育部专门成立一个价值观组织“共和国劳工智囊团”，意在阻止“从美国进口的觉醒主义”——一种刻意制造种族对立的身份政治，防止颜色革命波及法国。不仅如此，美国的混合战争也伤及盟友们的全球利益，他们（例如欧盟）开始在外交和军事上走向自主化，客观上导致霸权同盟体系的散装化。

第三，混合战争催生了全球恐怖主义，加剧了全球文明冲突，必然反噬美国自身。如俄罗斯安全委员会秘书帕特鲁舍夫（Nikolai Patrushev）所揭示的，正是美国在中东的混合战争，导致了恐怖主义和伊斯兰极端主义的出现。美国本土受到恐怖主义袭击，很大程度上就是其挑起文明冲突的结果。更具讽刺意义的是，美国后来的反恐战争不仅没能消灭恐怖主义，反而促成了恐怖主义组织的全球蔓延，在此蔓延过程中，美国扮演了推波助澜的角色。玩火易自焚。步步做大的恐怖主义威胁，将始终是美国的后患；身处文明冲突的迷局之中，美国的命运也将更不确定，而这恰恰是最让这个追求确定性、唯一性的“山巅之城”恐惧的吧。

The world has suffered from the American hybrid warfare too much and for too long. While many countries and societies are plunged into the quagmire of conflicts, Washington profits from their misery.

However, while hybrid wars have helped the U.S. to contain its rivals, they are also nibbling away at the foundation of American hegemony. For all the short-term benefit the U.S. has reaped, just as much long-term damage is inflicted upon itself. 

First, hybrid warfare has weakened America's international prestige and accentuated its dwindling confidence. While hybrid wars are said to bring about democracy, better human rights and social progress, they usually end up with political decline, humanitarian disasters and social decay. This in turn hollows out the basis of American values, making people doubt Washington's empty promises and grand rhetoric.

Hybrid wars running rampant indicate that hypervigilance and the abuse of deterrent power is the signature of America's international existence and its mentality in dealing with international relations. As a result, its imagined enemies far outnumber the real ones. Such a sense of insecurity will only grow with the fall of American hegemony, wearing down Americans' confidence and further polarizing its political landscape.

Second, hybrid warfare has set many countries against the U.S., and driven Washington and its allies apart. Across the world, victim countries of open or secret U.S. intervention and manipulation are not in the minority. America's hybrid warfare, seen as a stumbling block for these countries' development, has drawn vehement international criticisms and will inevitably lead to ever bitterer hatred.

Even America's Western allies are taking preventative steps to shield themselves. According to media reports, in 2021, France's Ministry of National Education established Le Laboratoire de la République. It's a values-based think tank with a mission to shield France from color revolutions and to prevent the import of wokeism – a form of identity politics that pitches ethnic groups against each other, from the United States.

Furthermore, seeing their own global interests hurt by America's hybrid war efforts, American allies, for instance, the European Union, have begun to seek greater diplomatic and military autonomy, leading to the technical disintegration of the hegemonic alliance system.

Third, hybrid warfare has bred global terrorism and intensified the clash of civilizations. It will eventually backfire at the U.S. As the Secretary of the Security Council of Russia Nikolai Patrushev points out, it is America's hybrid warfare in the Middle East that has led to the emergence of terrorism and Islamic extremism.

Terrorist attacks on American homeland are to a large extent a result of the clash of civilizations provoked by Washington. Ironically, America's more recent counterterrorism wars, rather than eliminating terror attacks, spread terrorism across the world. Nurtured by the U.S., terror threats will remain a scourge for the U.S.

Lost in the clash of civilizations, America will be heading towards an even more uncertain destiny. Perhaps, this is exactly what this "city on a hill" that honors American exceptionalism fears the most.

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