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CGTN对话思想者 | 如何为挣扎中的全球经济注入反弹动力

CGTN CGTN 2022-04-29


编者按:在博鳌亚洲论坛2022年年会期间,CGTN旗舰时事评论栏目《对话》与博鳌论坛合作举办《对话思想者—为全球经济复苏注入动力》特别电视论坛。多国政策制定者、商业领袖、多边组织负责人线上线下齐聚一堂,把脉全球经济,商讨经济复苏之道。
Editor's Note: As the Boao Forum for Asia 2022 being held in south China's Hainan Province from April 20-22 2022, CGTN's current affairs show "Dialogue" collaborated the forum to produce a special program "Dialogue with thinkers: Injecting impetus into global economic recovery,” inviting policymakers, business executives, and multilateral institution leaders to explore ways for injecting impetus into a world in desperate need of economic recovery.

全球经济面临新冠疫情和俄乌冲突双重夹击 专家对经济增速保持谨慎乐观
With threats from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine crisis, experts remain cautiously optimistic about economic outlook

Policymakers, business executives, and multilateral institution leaders are invited to explore ways for injecting impetus into a world in desperate need of economic recovery./CGTN

通货膨胀加剧、经济衰退、失业率上升、贸易中断……持续两年的新冠疫情对全球经济造成了严重的冲击,而当前的乌克兰危机令世界经济形势雪上加霜。
Rising inflation, economic downturns, job loss and global trade disruption...the world economy has taken a heavy toll from two years of the COVID pandemic, and now the Russia-Ukraine crisis has brought even more fallout. 

新加坡副总理王瑞杰在电视论坛上表示:“我们正面临着国家间对抗、经济增长停滞以及通胀加剧的三重困境。”
“We are now faced with the prospect of opposing forces, the restrained growth and raised inflation at the same time,” said Heng Swee Keat, Deputy Prime Minister and Coordinating Minister for Economic Policies of Singapore.

联合国副秘书长刘振民对他的观点表示赞同,并指出乌克兰冲突加剧了疫情造成的全球危机。
Liu Zhenmin, Under-Secretary-General for Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, echoed the deputy prime minister's remark that the Ukrainian conflict has added the fuel to the fire of the pandemic crisis.

他表示:“在2022年初,我们几乎看到了走出危机的曙光。我们在一月份时预测,全球GDP增长率可能会达到4%,但是现在的实际情况改变了一切。”
“In the beginning of the year 2022, we were almost to see the light at the other end of the tunnel of the crisis. Our projection at that time in January was that globally we could achieve a 4 percent GDP growth,” said Liu. “But now I think the reality changes everything.”

中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所所长张宇燕指出:“国际货币基金组织和世界银行最近都大幅调低全球经济增长的预期。好像给人感觉世界经济山雨欲来风满楼,不断地在恶化。是不是这样?是这样的。”
“The IMF and World Bank have readjusted downward the expectation of global economic growth. People feel that there will be a lot of ups and downs ahead, and the world economy will get worse. Is this the case? Yes.” Said Zhang Yuyan, Director General of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Science.

他认为:“但另一个方面,我觉得可能我们也不必过于悲观,3.6%的增长,我觉得是一个完全可以接受的增长。就是全球的经济增长,我们看疫情爆发之前是多少,那十年就是3%出头。如果能够达到3.6%的全球增长,我觉得这是符合我们预期的。”
“But on the other hand, we cannot be overly pessimistic. 3.6% is acceptable global growth. In the decade before the pandemic, global growth was a little more than 3 %. If we can achieve global growth of 3.6%, I think it is in line with our expectations,” added Zhang.

全球化遭遇前所未有的挑战 但其重要性愈发凸显
Facing unprecedented challenges, globalization has only become increasingly important
 

CGTN's current affairs show "Dialogue" collaborated with Boao Forum for Asia 2022 to produce a special program "Dialogue with thinkers: Injecting impetus into global economic recovery.”/CGTN


自从美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普推出保护主义贸易政策以来,全球化一直面临着前所未有的挑战。新冠疫情和俄乌冲突给全球化的未来造成了更多的不确定性。许多人在思考全球化是否真的会逆转或倒退。
Since former US President Donald Trump introduced protectionist trade policies, globalization has been facing challenges like never before. The COVID-19 pandemic and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine have generated more uncertainty regarding the fate of globalization. Many wonder whether globalization could actually reverse or go into retreat.

法国前总理让-皮埃尔·拉法兰说:“我认为现在全球化处在一个非常艰难的境地。在欧洲,很多人因为全球化的不公平性,对其持怀疑态度。”
“I think that globalization is now in very bad difficulties as a concept,” said Jean-Pierre Raffarin, former Prime Minister of France. “In Europe, a lot of people are angry about globalization because of inequality everywhere in the world.”

王瑞杰认为:“随着中美关系持续紧张,以及近期的金融制裁,‘去全球化’的风险增加了。但我们还没有到最焦灼的时候,尽管面临不少障碍,但事实证明全球贸易体系还是相当稳健的。”
“The risk of de-globalization has increased with ongoing US-China tensions, as well as the recent use of financial sanctions. But we are not yet at the tipping point. The global trading system has proved quite robust despite the hurdles.” Heng Swee Keat said. 

刘振民承认全球化正在遭遇一些挫折,但也提醒我们不要忘记全球化的价值:全球化推动经济一体化,促进经济增长,鼓励创新,减少贫困,提高流动性。
While acknowledging globalization has encountered setbacks, Liu Zhenmin reminded us of the values of globalization – it has facilitated economic integration, boosted growth, encouraged innovation, reduced poverty, and improved mobility. 

刘振民说:“这些危机告诉我们,没有全球化,这个世界将无法生存。在一个高度数字化的世界里,全球化不会逆转。唯一的出路是所有国家团结起来,增进合作。”
“These crises tell us that without globalization, this world will not be able to survive,” said Liu. “In a high digitalized world, globalization will not be reversed. The only way out is that all the countries could be united and improve their collaboration.”

新开发银行行长马可指出,通货膨胀是当前最大的挑战之一,其中一个原因就是国际保护主义的加剧。
Marcos Troyjo, President of the New Development Bank, noted that inflation, one of the biggest challenges in the horizon, can be attributed to an increase in international protectionism. 

马克表示:“过去几十年来,国际直接投资增长以及商贸流通性增强都有效抑制了通货膨胀。因此,全球化在控制通货膨胀方面发挥了非常重要的作用。”
 “One of the most powerful forces in keeping inflation down for the last couple of decades has been an increased flow of foreign direct investment and an increased flow of goods and service. So globalization plays a very important role in keeping inflation tamed.” Troyjo said.

波士顿咨询集团主席汉斯-保罗·博克纳认为:“全球化并没有,也不会结束,但未来它将会有更多新的层面。”
“Globalization has not come to an end, and will not come to an end. But I think it will have more dimensions going forward,” said Hans-Paul Bürkner, Chairman of the Boston Consulting Group.

博克纳认为,除了全球供应链之外,未来还会有地区和地方供应链。为了规避地缘政治冲突和自然灾害带来的风险,企业需要确保它们不只是依赖世界某个地区的一家供应商,而是在不同地区都有可以替代的供应商。
Bürkner believed that besides global supply chains, there will be regional and local supply chains. For companies to hedge risks from geopolitical tensions and natural disaster, they need to make sure that they don't depend on just one supplier from one part of the world, but instead having alternative suppliers in each region.

刘振民赞同博克纳的观点,他也认为全球化会有所调整,比如在改善国际运输和贸易方面。“全球化将得到改善,但不会完全改变。”
Liu agreed with Bürkner that there will be adjustment of globalization, including improvement on international transportation and trade. “Globalization will be improved, but will not be entirely changed.”

如何突破重重困难摆脱危机 专家建言献策表达信心
On how to address risks and revitalize the economy, experts offer advice and express confidence
 
Policymakers, business executives, and multilateral institution leaders are invited to explore ways for injecting impetus into a world in desperate need of economic recovery./CGTN

让-皮埃尔·拉法兰警告说:“一个分裂的世界将不断衰落,并会成为一个危险的世界。我们应该开诚布公地思考如何从过去的错误和失衡中恢复过来,为更加稳定和繁荣的世界注入动力。”
“A divided world will be declining and will become a dangerous world,” warned Jean-Pierre Raffarin. “We should reflect openly ways and means to inject impetus in a more stable and prosperous world recovering from past errors and imbalances.”

刘振民指出,当前世界最紧迫的任务是停止乌克兰战争和实现全球疫苗接种。
Liu Zhenmin pointed out that the most urgent tasks for the world now are to stop the war in Ukraine and to achieve global vaccination. 

他说:“人类应该继续保持信心。历史上我们从未像现在这样拥有如此丰富的资源和如此发达的科学技术,但问题是我们需要政治意愿和智慧来停止战争,恢复全球合作。”
“Human beings should continue to be confident. I think never in history, the world and human beings have possessed so many resources, so good technology, but the issue is we need political will, we need wisdom to stop the war, to resume the global cooperation,” said Liu. 

他相信,世界将逐步实现复苏。也许今年无法实现,但在2023年全球经济能够得到复苏。
Liu believed that the world will achieve recovery gradually. Maybe the world will not be fully recovered in this year, but he was confident that global recovery can be achieved in 2023. 

王瑞杰指出:“新冠疫情提醒了我们世界是如何相互联结和依存的。尽管存在摩擦,但我们必须牢记,只有通过合作才能实现增长和繁荣。”
 “COVID-19 has reminded us just how interconnected and interdependent the world is. While frictions remain, we must remember growth and prosperity are achieved through cooperation.” Heng Swee Keat said.

他详细阐述了实现更好合作的三种方式。首先,通过例如如《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》和《全面与进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》的区域倡议继续加强区域架构和伙伴关系。第二,将疫情带来的全球经济结构性变化转化为新的增长动力。第三,加强经济韧性。
He then elaborated on three ways to enable better cooperation. First, to continue to strengthen regional architecture and partnerships through regional initiatives such as the RCEP and CPTPP. Second, to harness accelerated structural changes in the global economy brought by the pandemic as new sources of growth. Third, to strengthen the resilience of our economies.

在谈到结构变化时,王瑞杰特别提到了数字贸易和可持续性。他说,各国必须共同努力,统一标准,实现数据可信流通,让更多人参与到数字经济之中。而绿色增长需要集体的努力,需要各个国家的大量资本和前沿技术的支持。
When talking about structural changes, Heng particularly mentioned digital trade and sustainability. He said countries must work together to harmonize standards, enable the trusted flow of data, and empower greater participation in the digital economy. And green growth is a collective effort that requires huge amounts of capital and leading-edge technology from many countries.

他说:“数字化、可持续性、经济韧性。我们有明确的规划来实现目标,我们必须搁置分歧。只要我们共同努力,亚洲和世界不仅能从疫情中恢复过来,还可以在疫后世界变得更加强大。”
“Digital, sustainability, resilience. We have a full agenda ahead. To achieve these goals, we must set aside our differences. By working together, Asia and the world will not only recover from the pandemic, but emerge stronger in the post-pandemic world,” said Heng.


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