CGTN对话思想者｜联合国副秘书长刘振民：全球化不可逆转 区域贸易值得关注

Editor's Note: Liu Zhenmin, UN Under-Secretary-General, sits down with CGTN anchor Xu Qinduo. He says that global production and trade will be adjusted, but the trend of globalization is difficult to reverse. He also adds that the world today is highly interdependent, and in the future, there will be more regional trade. Views expressed in the video are his and do not necessarily represent those of CGTN.

编者按：联合国副秘书长刘振民在接受CGTN主持人许钦铎的采访时表示，全球生产和贸易方式会有所调整，但全球化趋势难以逆转。当今世界各国高度相互依存。未来，我们将发展更多区域贸易。本视频仅代表被访者个人观点，不代表CGTN的观点或立场。

刘振民：

我认为现在全球化已经融入到了每个国家、每个人的日常生活。包括俄罗斯和乌克兰，从前苏联解体，他们各自宣布独立以来，也加入到了全球化的进程。不幸的是，此次乌克兰战争引发的制裁正在逐步孤立俄罗斯。但我认为，从全球来看，经济全球化已经造就了涵盖所有国家的经济一体化。在过去的几十年里，特别是在过去的30年里，全球化促进了（经济）增长，鼓励了创新，减少了贫困，增进了世界范围内的流动性。

Liu Zhenmin:

Actually, I think in the real world, globalization [is] already a daily life for every country and for every person. So even Russia and Ukraine, they have been already integrated into this globalization since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, and since their independence. So [it's] unfortunate that the Ukrainian war has caused another problem that Russia is now gradually to be isolated due to the sanctions. But I think, globally speaking, the economic globalization has already resulted in the economic integration of all countries. Over the past decades, especially the last 30 years, globalization already boosted growth, encouraged innovation, reduced poverty, and improved mobility across the world.

人们也许会问：这次乌克兰危机会有什么影响？后冷战时代的世界秩序，尤其是贸易和经济秩序，是否会就此宣告结束？ 我认为全球化进程，尤其在生产和贸易方面，会有所调整，但在经济活动中追求比较优势和生产效率最大化的大势很难逆转。

People will say: what about the impact of this Ukrainian crisis? Some people talking about, whether we are come to the end of the post-Cold War world order or, especially, trade order, economy order. I think globalization would be adjusted, especially in view of this production and trade. But these powerful economic forces of comparative advantage and harnessing the production efficiency will be difficult to reverse. 

商人从投资中获利，你很难强迫企业转移至他们不想去的地方。尽管新冠肺炎疫情对全球供应链产生了影响，在某些方面甚至是破坏性影响，至今尚未恢复，尽管国际运输，特别是海上运输，还没有完全恢复，运费也因此上涨，但我认为全球化依然是（时代趋势）。当今世界是一个高度依存的世界。你可能无法想象，就在去年，中美贸易额竟然逆势增长，这便是市场的需求。因此，有时候，我认为就算是政府政策也无法阻止全球化的趋势。

People always say, especially for the business community, their investments are seeking profits. So that's why I think it'll be difficult to force businesses to go somewhere they don't like to. Even during the pandemic, the global supply chain has been affected, in certain aspect been disrupted and not fully recovered even until now. International transportation, especially sea-borne transportation, has not fully recovered. That has caused the rise of the freight price. But I think it'll be...The world has already been highly interdependent. Even for last year, you cannot imagine the U.S.-China trade increased because of the demand of the market. So at certain time, I think even the government policy will not stop this, the impulse. 

我听说一些拉美国家正在讨论他们是否可以发展化肥产业，因为他们的化肥进口依赖于俄罗斯和乌克兰。他们如今也受到俄乌危机的影响。他们正在考虑这个问题，但这需要时间。我的判断是（全球）生产、供应、贸易或多或少会有些调整，区域贸易会变得越来越多。过去一两年，中国-东盟贸易额急剧增加，这意味着区域贸易正变得更加便捷，更加便宜。我认为世界需要关注这种趋势，但这不会逆转全球贸易、全球供应链以及经济全球化。因此，大家仍应坚信，全球化已经融入了我们的日常生活。这是无法逆转的。

People are talking, I heard some Latin American countries, they are talking about whether we can develop our fertilizer manufacturing, because they are now, depending on fertilizer imports from Russia and Ukraine. And now they [are] affected due to the crisis. They are thinking for that, but it'll take time. So that's why I think my conclusion is that, the production, supply, trade would be more or less adjusted. There will be more regional trade. I think you can see that even last year or even during the last two years, China-ASEAN trade increased dramatically. So it means trade within the region is becoming more convenient, cheaper. I think it'll be this kind of phenomenon that the world needs to take care. But this cannot reverse the global trade, reverse global supply chain and reverse the economic globalization. So people and all countries should continue to be confident that globalization has already become a daily life. This cannot be regressed.

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