决策者 | IMF驻华代表处首席代表：重振国际合作精神，共同应对全球危机
Editor's note: Decision Makers is a global platform for decision makers to share their insights on events shaping today's world. Steven Alan Barnett is the International Monetary Fund's Senior Resident Representative for China. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
编者按：《决策者》是全球决策制定者分享对国际大事见解的平台。史蒂文•艾伦•巴奈特是国际货币基金组织驻华代表处首席代表。本文仅为作者个人观点，不一定代表CGTN立场。
全球经济面临着巨大的挑战，各种危机接踵而至，导致物价上涨、收入承压、经济不确定性加剧。若要成功应对这种情况，就必须有强力的国内政策回应，更重要的是，需要强劲的国际政策回应。多边合作仍然至关重要，这是今年国际货币基金组织和世界银行春季会议的一个重要结论。
Even before the pandemic, the global economy faced considerable challenges, notably climate change, and our shared future hinges on securing greener growth. Reinvigorating global trade, boosting productivity growth, and adapting to technological change, have also remained important priorities.
即使在疫情发生之前，全球经济就已经面临着巨大的挑战，特别是气候变化挑战，而绿色发展对于实现美好的未来至关重要。重振全球贸易、促进生产力发展和适应技术变革仍然是最重要的事情。
Then came the coronavirus, and the resulting global economic contraction of more than 3 percent, the steepest downturn since the Great Depression in the 1930s. On top of the tragic human and social costs, the pandemic has also left considerable and lasting economic scars, especially in emerging and developing economies.
随着新型冠状病毒疫情肆虐全球，全球经济下滑超过 3%，这是自上世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的衰退。除了使人类生命健康和社会发展付出惨重代价之外，这场疫情还留下了相当持久的经济伤痕，特别是对于那些新兴和发展中经济体。
Just as that crisis appeared to be easing, the global economy was hit by the war in Ukraine. Beyond the tragic human cost, the European economy is seeing a serious setback, including substantial output losses in Russia, Belarus, and of course Ukraine. It also has global spillovers, largely through rising food and energy prices. Price increases that hit lower-income families especially hard, as they spend a larger share of their income on food and energy.
就在疫情危机似乎有所缓和之际，全球经济受到了俄乌冲突的冲击。冲突造成了巨大的伤亡，也让欧洲经济面临严重的倒退压力，俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、乌克兰等国的经济产值大幅缩水。此外，冲突还导致全球性溢出效应，主要体现在食品和能源价格上涨。物价上涨对低收入家庭的打击尤其严重，因为他们将大部分收入用于购买食品和能源。
Reflecting these developments, our recent World Economic Outlook lowered the global growth forecast for this year to 3.6 percent. That’s down by 0.8 percentage point from our January projection and slower than last year’s 6.1 percent growth pace. It also reflected widespread downgrades for 143 economies together accounting for 86 percent of global GDP.
以此为基准，我们近期发布的《世界经济展望》将今年的全球增长预测下调至3.6%。这比我们1月份的预测降低了0.8个百分点，低于去年 6.1% 的增速。占全球国内生产总值86%的143个经济体的增长预期也普遍面临下调。
Policy challenges
政策挑战
Multilateral cooperation is essential, but domestic policies are also key for securing the recovery. Monetary policy must balance tackling inflation and safeguarding the recovery. Fiscal policy must balance support for the vulnerable with rebuilding fiscal buffers. More broadly, policymakers should not lose sight of the broader long-term challenges that existed before the pandemic.
多边合作必不可少，但国内政策也是确保复苏的关键。货币政策必须在应对通货膨胀和保障复苏之间取得平衡。财政政策必须在支持弱势群体与重建财政缓冲之间取得平衡。总的来说，政策制定者不应忽视疫情之前就已存在的更广泛的长期性挑战。
The IMF’s role is to offer a platform for its 190 members to work together, and we did just that when the pandemic hit, responding with a rapid reform of our lending toolkit to address grave challenges. We also extended substantial financial assistance through emergency financing and IMF-supported programs: In the first two years of the pandemic, we approved $216 billion in loans to 92 countries, and more than half of recipients were our lower-income members. We also provided debt service relief for 25 of our poorest members through the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust.
国际货币基金组织的作用是为其190个成员国提供一个合作的平台，当疫情来袭时，我们做到了这一点。我们迅速革新了贷款工具包，以应对严峻的挑战。我们还通过紧急融资和国际货币基金组织支持项目对外提供了大量财政援助。在疫情开始的头两年，我们向92个国家批准了2160亿美元的贷款，其中一半以上的受援国是低收入成员国。我们还通过灾难控制和救济信托基金为25个最贫穷的成员国提供了债务减免。
Signage outside the International Monetary Fund (IMF) headquarters in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 19, 2022. /CFP
In addition, our historic allocation of $650 billion of IMF Special Drawing Rights in August was the largest ever. This benefitted all IMF members, boosted reserves, helped build confidence, and sent a powerful signal of a cooperative multilateral response to the crisis. For emerging market and developing countries, the average allocation was equivalent to more than 2 percent of GDP. Low-income countries are using up to 40 percent of their SDRs on essential Covid-related spending priorities, such as vaccines.
此外，我们在8月份分配了6500亿美元的国际货币基金组织特别提款权，这是有史以来规模最大的一次。这使所有成员国受益，增厚了资金储备，有助于建立信心，也是多边合作应对危机的有力信号。对于新兴市场和发展中国家来说，平均获配资金相当于其国内生产总值的2%以上。低收入国家将高达40%的特别提款权用于与新冠肺炎疫情相关的优先开支项目，例如疫苗。
And during the recent meetings, our Executive Board approved the creation of a Resilience and Sustainability Trust. This will help countries address challenges such as climate change and pandemics by providing more affordable longer-term funding and encouraging private investment.
在近期的会议上，我们的执行委员会批准设立一个“韧性和可持续性信托”。该信托将通过提供更多低成本的长期资金并鼓励私人投资，来帮助各国应对气候变化和疫情等挑战。
War and health
地缘冲突与卫生健康
International cooperation is essential in many other areas: First, to end the war in Ukraine, which is causing global reverberations, especially in food and energy markets. Second, to confront COVID-19. To fight it, we need a variety of tools including vaccines, testing, and anti-viral treatments. And, importantly, these need to be deployed everywhere. This pandemic provides a great illustration of how health security really is economic security.
在许多其他领域，国际合作也必不可少。第一，要尽快结束俄乌冲突。目前冲突已在全球范围内引起连锁反应，特别是在农产品和能源市场。第二，要共同抗击新冠肺炎疫情。在抗疫领域，我们需要各种工具，包括疫苗、检测工具和抗病毒治疗药物。而且关键在于这些物资要能配送至全球各地。这场疫情充分证明，卫生安全是经济安全的重要前提。
Another key area is debt: 60 percent of low-income countries are in or near debt distress. The G20 put in place a framework to provide debt treatments to low-income countries. The challenge is to make it work better and faster. Timely and orderly debt resolutions are in the best interest of debtors and creditors.
另一个关键领域是化解债务问题。60%的低收入国家处于或接近债务困境，二十国集团对此制定了面向低收入国家的债务化解框架，现在的挑战在于如何让它更好更快地发挥作用，及时和有序地化解债务符合债务人和债权人的最佳利益。
Finally, there’s climate change. This fight is critical for the planet and for prosperity. With the right policies, the world can address rising temperatures in a way that is good for both the economy and the environment. These include carbon pricing, through a tax or other means; green investment, including by involving the private sector; and support for the vulnerable within societies and across countries to help smooth the adjustment.
最后，还有气候变化问题。抗击气候变化对地球保护和人类社会的繁荣发展至关重要。通过出台有效政策，世界各国在控制气温上升的同时，能够很好地兼顾经济发展和环境保护。这些政策包括通过税收或其他方式进行碳定价；进行绿色投资，包括让私营部门参与进来；以及支持社会内部和各国的弱势群体，以实现平稳转型。
From pandemic to war, we can now see more clearly just how interconnected our global economy is – and why we must aim to avoid the costly toll of a lasting fragmentation into geopolitical blocs. Instead, renewing the spirit of international cooperation is the best path toward solving our greatest challenges.
从疫情到地缘冲突，我们愈发清楚地认识到全球经济的高度关联性，也认识到我们必须致力于避免各国抱团形成地缘政治阵营，造成持久分裂和巨大损失。重振国际合作精神才是解决当下重大挑战的最佳途径。