就实论事｜加息无度——偏方怎能愈顽疾

The U.S. has announced to further raise interest rates by 0.75 percentage points, the fifth time this year to raise borrowing costs. But will simply raising rates fix the problems of the U.S. economy? 

美国宣布加息75个基点，这是今年以来的第五次加息。然而，一味加息就能解决美国的经济问题吗？

One key factor some say has contributed to the current record high inflation has been aggressive government stimulus packages. In March 2021, the government handed out 1,400 dollars to every American – a 1.9-trillion-dollar package. That followed an even larger sum in March 2020 of 2 trillion dollars.

有人指出，目前超高通胀背后的一个关键因素是美国政府出台的强刺激措施。2021年3月，政府向每位美国公民发放了1400美元的补助金，相当于向经济注入1.9万亿美元。在此之前，2020年3月美国政府还推出过规模更大的2万亿美元经济刺激方案。

No wonder some have called the U.S. inflation a "man-made" problem. 

难怪有人称美国的通货膨胀是“人祸”。

Then there's the mistake assuming that it would only be temporary. 

此外，美国政府还错误地认为高通胀只是暂时的。

Now the consensus is that inflation is here to stay. To bring it down to a comfortable 2% from its current 8.3%, the U.S. must raise the unemployment rate far higher than its 4.1% projection. 

现在的共识是，通货膨胀将持续。为了将通胀率从当前的8.3%降至较为温和的2%，美联储必须容忍失业率远高于其预期的4.1%。

But then risk a possible recession. 

但这样就有衰退的风险。

Given the fact the U.S. is the world's largest economy, constant rate hikes will have consequences on poorer nations as well as the global economy. Just as an article from the Washington Post put it, higher rates will "push up the cost of financing debt or importing goods for countries that borrow in dollars."

鉴于美国是全球最大经济体，持续加息将给较贫穷国家以及全球经济产生影响。正如《华盛顿邮报》的一篇文章所说，利率上升将“推高美元债务国的融资成本和货物进口成本。”

Even if the U.S. could engineer a soft landing, there may still be long-term price pressures. 

即使美国经济能够实现软着陆，也可能会面临长期的价格压力。

Besides the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and pandemic, the U.S. is decoupling from China, the world's second largest economy. That creates all sorts of economic problems, including reversing globalization. 

除了受俄乌冲突和疫情影响，美国还正试图与全球第二大经济体中国脱钩。这造成了各种经济问题，包括逆全球化问题。

Actually, this has already begun. Globalization was first attacked by former U.S. President Donald Trump, who spearheaded a U.S. policy of nationalism and populism. U.S. consumers are still paying more for imported Chinese good because of unnecessary tariffs which Trump set in motion as part of his trade war with China. 

实际上，逆全球化趋势早已启动。全球化首先遭到美国前总统唐纳德·特朗普的攻击，他带头推行美国民族主义和民粹主义政策。由于特朗普在与中国的贸易战中加征了不必要的关税，美国消费者仍在为从中国进口的商品支付更高价格。

In a similar vein, the Biden government has also been working to dismantle globalization by forcing U.S. firms to de-link from China, quickly resulting in higher production costs. As restrictions on free trade and investment with China are imposed, supply chains are disrupted. This leads to shortages of semi-conductors and solar panel materials, which then causes geopolitical competition and raised tensions, which will only break down trade between the two countries.

同样，拜登政府也一直在努力削弱全球化根基，迫使美国公司与中国脱钩，结果导致生产成本快速上升。美国给对华自由贸易和投资设置限制，致使供应链中断，引起半导体和光伏原材料短缺，继而导致地缘政治博弈和紧张局势加剧，这只会瓦解中美贸易。

International columnist on global business John Manzella warns that as globalization is diminished, everyone will suffer from high prices as a result. 

全球商业领域的国际专栏作家约翰·曼泽拉警告说，随着全球化日渐式微，每个人都将因此承受更高的物价。

Though rate hikes may seem like a quick fix, they address the symptoms and not the problem. We must re-focus on free trade and investment, which itself demands stability and cooperation. Failing to do so will only bring further confrontation, or even a new Cold War which will only render countries poorer. 

虽然加息看似能立竿见影，但毕竟治标不治本。我们必须再度着眼于自由贸易和投资，而这本身就需要稳定与合作。否则只会升级对抗，甚或引发“新冷战”，结果只会使各国更加贫穷。

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