COVID-19 Data and Stories from Shanghai, New York & Sydney (2)
这是“世界三大人口稠密城市新冠数据和真实故事“系列文章的第 3 部分。该系列文章主要介绍来自上海、纽约和悉尼三个人口稠密城市的关键新冠数据和真实故事。这些文章旨在与对这些大城市新冠疫情应对策略措施、经验和解决方案感兴趣的各国人士进行及时分享和有效互动，以促进各地互相学习和借鉴。非常欢迎通过电邮地址 linli2011@icloud.com 或微信号eastwest10将您的任何反馈、建议发送给李林博士并与其团队互动。
两天前（4 月 23 日）在本系列文章的第2部分，我专门强调了上海新冠死亡人数显著增加的情况：从 4 月 18 日仅报告 3 人死亡（指过去 24 小时内的新冠死亡数，下同），到 4 月 23 日一天就报告 12 人死亡，即4月18-23日期间平均每天约 9 人死亡。最近三天，上海的新冠死亡人数更是急剧增加，从4 月 24 日一天报告 39 人死亡，增加到25日的 51 人（见下图中的蓝线），这使上海 7 天的日均死亡人数达到19.3人（注：今天4月26，报告新增死亡52人）！这远高于新南威尔士州（简称新州，NSW，其首府是悉尼，正如本系列文章早些时候所述，悉尼人口占该州人口的 64% 以上）；新南威尔士州最近 7 天的日均死亡人数为 11.4 人。
数据来源：上海市卫健委；新南威尔士州政府卫生厅。本图数据由李林博士综合整理（电邮：linli2011@icloud.com）
上图显示，虽然上海的每日报告死亡人数急剧增加，但新南威尔士州在可比时间段内的趋势却相反，即死亡人数大幅下降，尤其是最近三天（见图中的黄线）。
上海和新南威尔士州每日新冠死亡数的不同趋势需要结合两地每日报告的新冠病例及其特征来解释。如下图所示，虽然在过去几天的大部分时间里上海每天报告的新增病例数保持在约 2万例的高位，同期新南威尔士州报告的每日新增病例稳步下降，从4 月 21 日的近 17500 例降到4月25日的仅约 8000 例（见图表的黄线）。
数据来源：上海市卫健委；新南威尔士州政府卫生厅。本图数据由李林博士综合整理（电邮：linli2011@icloud.com）
正如该系列文章的第2部分所报道的那样，新南威尔士州已经度过了欧密克戎BA.2亚变异株爆发的高峰期，这意味着其住院和死亡人数可能会随之下降（尽管这可能会延迟）。
（Updated COVID-19 Summary Data and Real Stories from Shanghai, New York and Sydney, April 23, 2022 ）
还值得一提的是，根据上海市卫健委和上海市知名专家张文宏教授的说法，4月25日新报告的死亡病例绝大多数发生在高龄病人中（报告的 51 例新冠死亡病例的平均年龄为84.2 岁），他们中很多人有严重的基础性疾病，而新南威尔士州的阳性病例可能不是这种情况。最近在新南威尔士州大多数阳性病例是通过使用快速抗原检测 (RAT)发现的。例如，在新南威尔士州25日报告的 7,985 例阳性病例中，有 4,335 例是通过快速抗原检测发现阳性的，请看下图中的相关信息。
数据来源：新南威尔士州政府卫生厅
正如该系列文章的第 1 部分所述，自 2022 年 3 月下旬上海进入严格的新冠封城以来，除了 RAT 快速抗原检测外，上海还在组织大规模核酸检测。新南威尔士州在同一时期未进行此类大规模检测。
继续使用来自这些人口稠密城市的可用数据进行科学合理的比较非常有意义，这样来自国际上不同城市/司法管辖区的抗疫经验和教训及不同的新冠应对政策举措（例如，“零容忍”或“与病毒共存”的不同政策) 及其效果可以得到及时分享，促进各地互相学习和借鉴。上海已从4月18日开始通报新冠死亡数据，使得这方面的比较成为可能（尽管实际死亡数可能会更高）。
非常欢迎通过电邮地址 linli2011@icloud.com 或微信号eastwest10将您的任何反馈、建议发送给李林博士并与其团队互动。
网址：https://www.eastwestpartners.org/
本文作者李林博士是澳大利亚墨尔本的一位公共卫生专业人员，很多年前曾经得到纽约一个基金会资助的国际奖学金，离开工作多年的中国疾病控制系统到墨尔本大学攻读公共卫生博士学位，毕业后在澳洲开展了10多年的公共卫生研究和国际合作，包括推动中、美、澳等国之间的卫生合作与交流。（在美国发布的高等教育影响力报告介绍了李林博士 Dr Lin Li is featured in an edu report）
主要信息来源：
上海市卫健委Shanghai Municipal Health Commission. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/yqtb/index.html
微信文章：“上海新增死亡51例，直接原因公布...张文宏：重症救治面临挑战”. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HH6rf4lPz-lTCYzxaY1Zxw
新南威尔士州政府卫生厅网站。New South Wales Government. COVID-19 (Coronavirus).
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#today
“世界三大人口稠密城市新冠数据和真实故事“系列文章（英文版）
Important COVID-19 Summary Data and Real Stories from Shanghai, New York and Sydney, April 18, 2022Updated COVID-19 Summary Data and Real Stories from Shanghai, New York and Sydney, April 23, 2022
COVID Deaths Increased Sharply in Shanghai, Much Higher Than Sydney: Summary Data, April 25, 2022
（本文英文版链接：https://www.eastwestpartners.org/post/covid-deaths-increased-sharply-in-shanghai-much-higher-than-sydney-summary-data-april-25-2022 ）
COVID Deaths Increased Sharply in Shanghai, Much Higher Than Sydney: Summary Data, April 25, 2022
This is the 3rd part of a series of articles presenting key COVID-19 data and real stories from three populous cities in the world: Shanghai, New York and Sydney. These articles are intended to inform and engage audiences who are interested in COVID-19 related responses, experiences and solutions in these big cities and beyond. You are welcome to send any of your feedback to Dr. Lin Li 李林博士 at linli2011@icloud.com .
Two days ago (on April 23) in the second part of this series of posts I highlighted the significant increase in COVID deaths in Shanghai: from only 3 deaths reported on April 18 (in the last 24 hours) to 12 deaths on April 23 alone, or about 9 deaths per day. The COVID death numbers in Shanghai increased SHARPLY in the past two days, from 39 deaths reported on April 24 alone to 51 deaths today (see the blue line in the graph below), pushing the 7-day daily average numbers of deaths in Shanghai to as high as 19.3; and this is much higher than New South Wales (or NSW, whose capital is Sydney which accounts for over 64% of the state’s population as described earlier in the series); the last 7-day daily average in NSW was 11.4 deaths per day.
Sources of data: Shanghai Municipal Health Commission; NSW Government. The data were updated as of April 25, 2022. The combined graph was prepared by Dr. Lin Li 李林博士 (linli2011@icloud.com).
The same graph above shows that while the daily deaths increased sharply in Shanghai, the trend in New South Wales for the comparable period of time is going to the opposite direction, i.e., the numbers of deaths decreased considerably, particularly in recent three days (see the yellow line in the graph).
The different trends in daily COVID deaths in Shanghai and New South Wales need to be interpreted in the context of reported daily new COVID cases and their characteristics. As shown in the graph below, while the reported new cases in Shanghai remained as high as about 20,000 cases on most of the days in the last several days, the daily new cases reported in NSW decreased steadily during the same period, from about 17,500 cases on April 21 to only about 8,000 cases today (see the yellow line of the graph).
Sources of data: Shanghai Municipal Health Commission; NSW Government. The data were updated as of April 25, 2022. The combined graph was prepared by Dr. Lin Li 李林博士 (linli2011@icloud.com).
As reported in the 2nd part of the series, NSW had passed the peak of the BA.2 Omicron sub-variant outbreak, and it means that the number of hospitalizations and deaths will also be likely to decrease (though this may be delayed). It is also worth mentioning that according to the Shanghai Municipal Health Commission and Shanghai’s top COVID expert (Dr ZHANG Wenhong), the vast majority of the newly reported deaths today occurred among very old residents (the average age of the 51 COVID deaths reported today was 84.2 years), who had serious underlying health conditions, and that might not be the case for positive residents in NSW, where the majority of positive cases used rapid antigen tests (RATs) (e.g., 4,335 out of the 7,985 positive tests reported in NSW today were through RAT, see the details in the graph below).
Source of data: NSW Government, Department of Health.
As reported in the 1st part of the series, in addition to RAT tests, Shanghai has been conducting mass testing using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) tests since the city entered strict COVID lockdown in late March 2022. NSW has not conducted such mass PCR testing in the same period.
It would be of great interest to continue to use available data from these populous cities to make reasonable and robust comparisons, so experiences and lessons from various jurisdictions with different approaches and policies (eg, ‘zero-tolerance approach’ vs ‘living with the virus’) can be shared and learned in a timely and interactive manner, especially given that Shanghai has also started providing statistics on COVID-related deaths (though the actual number could be higher).
You are welcome to send your comments and suggestions to Dr. Lin Li at linli2011@icloud.com. Thank you.
The author of this series of articles, Dr. Lin Li, is a public health professional in Melbourne, Australia. Many years ago, he received an international scholarship funded by a foundation in New York, the United States. He left the Chinese disease control system where he had worked for several years, and did his PhD in public health at the University of Melbourne, with the support from the scholarship from New York. Over the past 10 years, Dr Li has been conducting public health research projects and international cooperation, including promoting health cooperation and exchanges between China, the United States, Australia and other countries. (More information about his work can be found through the following links: https://bit.ly/LinLiEPorforlio2022https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/2sUgOmjAmVgqRijz7N1DMg , https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7643583/, https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2679187/)
(BY DR LIN LI. E-mail: linli2011@icloud.com. Website: https://www.eastwestpartners.org/ . E-Portforlios: https://bit.ly/LinLiEPorforlio2022)
Main sources
Shanghai Municipal Health Commission. http://wsjkw.sh.gov.cn/yqtb/index.html
A WeChat article on Dr ZHANG Wenhong's comments on the causes of the 51 Covid deaths in Shanghai. https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/HH6rf4lPz-lTCYzxaY1Zxw
New South Wales Government. COVID-19 (Coronavirus).
https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx#today