香港金管局总裁余伟文：克服全球化逆风，亚洲经济体可遵循四个原则
9月22日，在第五届外滩金融峰会之第七届浦山年会暨外滩全体大会“多重压力下如何重塑全球化”上，香港金融管理局总裁余伟文发表主题演讲提出：“全球化正处于十字路口。但只要做好充分准备，亚洲地区完全有能力适应全球贸易格局的变化。”
余伟文提到，由于务实的经济考量正在让位于保护主义和一些跨境限制，我们现在似乎正在走向全球贸易碎片化的道路。有些人担心这些变化可能会对中国的对外贸易产生负面影响，但预计随着时间的推移，虽然供应链可能会发生一些变化，但复杂供应链网络的大规模（从中国）搬迁的可能性较小。更重要的是，考虑到中国庞大的国内市场和充足的供应能力，以及制造业在价值链上的进阶等因素，中国很可能将在塑造区域供应链方面发挥更加重要的作用。同时，未来中国在全球出口中高附加值部份的作用必将进一步增强。
余伟文认为，要克服去全球化的逆风，亚洲地区仍有许多工作要做。有四项原则可以帮助亚洲在全球价值链的重新设定中抓住新机遇：保持韧性；实现贸易多元化；提升自身能力；深化区域合作。
此外，余伟文还谈到了香港在助力亚洲地区应对未来挑战方面的独特优势与相应努力。
* 以下为余伟文在第五届外滩金融峰会上的主题演讲全文，中文部分为峰会组委会秘书处翻译稿，仅供参考。
”尊敬的各位来宾，女士们，先生们：
大家早上好。能参加第五届外滩峰会，我感到很荣幸也很高兴。当今地缘经济碎片化的风险与日俱增，全球化正处于十字路口，本场会议的主题“重塑全球化”可谓恰逢其时。
全球化为新兴市场经济体带来了巨大利益，并帮助抑制了全球通胀。然而，2008年金融危机之后，全球化的黄金时代好像过去了，取而代之的是全球货物贸易的逐步放缓。在某些地区，尽管全球化价值链带来了更好、更实惠的产品，但由于种种原因，公众对全球化的支持也在减退。全球货物贸易放缓的趋势似乎还将继续，服务贸易和其他贸易将接过全球化的接力棒。
随着经济效率不再是最优先的考虑，全球经济面临着碎片化的风险。这种全球化的倒退叫人失望，尤其是对亚洲而言，因为该地区的经济相对开放。根据国际货币基金组织（IMF）的研究，如果世界分裂成两个几乎没有贸易往来的群组，那么亚太地区GDP每年可能会减少3%以上。
由于任何经济体都不可能完全自给自足，因此不太可能出现上述这种令人沮丧的结果。并且，鉴于全球金融体系高度相互关联，全面的金融脱钩也不太可能。即便如此，由于务实的经济考量正在让位于保护主义和一些跨境限制，我们现在似乎正在走向全球贸易碎片化的道路。
我们最近与国际清算银行（BIS）的联合研究发现，2020年2月至2021年底，全球价值链网络连接总数下降了约30%。当然，这些变化一部分可能源于新冠疫情的干扰，以及企业在缩短和将供应链区域化方面的努力。但遗憾的是，地缘政治也有一定影响。
随着所有这些发展，人们经常问起的一个问题是中国在这一“新常态”环境中的作用。中国与一些主要贸易伙伴的贸易和投资关系将如何演变？
有些人担心这些变化可能会对中国的对外贸易产生负面影响，而我的观点则有不同：虽然随着时间的推移，供应链可能会发生一些变化，但复杂供应链网络的大规模搬迁的可能性较小。我们最近对亚洲重要产业的全球组织结构进行了一项研究，发现汽车和IT行业等产业的生产网络非常复杂，且跨地区交织。再加上这些行业的资本密集型特点，以及亚洲大多数经济体不太可能具备承载这些复杂和大规模供应链所需的规模和能力，因此，任何有关这类复杂供应链网络的大规模搬迁，都将是困难的。
更重要的是，中国很可能将在塑造区域供应链方面发挥更加重要的作用。首先，中国拥有庞大的国内市场和充足的供应能力这一优势。其次，中国制造业正在努力向价值链上游进阶。即使中国的出口可能在一些市场上所占份额缩小，但通过出口更多的中间产品并在区内经济体中占据更大的进口份额，中国将继续在世界进口中占据重要且稳定的份额。
事实上，未来中国在全球出口中高附加值部份的作用必将进一步增强。香港金融管理局近期的另一项研究发现，根据国际经验，一个国家的全球出口份额往往会随着其国内消费的增长而上升，尤其是那些专门生产更复杂产品的国家。有证据表明，中国正在遵循这一模式，随着时间的推移，国内消费和出口都将从基本产品转向更为复杂的产品。
希望大家现在对全球化的前景不再那么悲观。当然，这并不意味着我们可以松懈，亚洲地区仍有许多工作要做，以克服去全球化的逆风。然而，没有什么挑战是不能克服的。我认为，以下四项原则可以帮助亚洲在全球价值链的重新设定中抓住新机遇。
第一，保持韧性。面对不断变化的投资流动，区内经济体必须保持足够的缓冲，确保其金融体系能够抵御冲击，这点非常重要。进一步发展外汇衍生品市场和扩大国内投资者基础将对此有所帮助，因为这两者都有助于在出现压力时支持市场稳定。
第二，实现贸易多元化。与非洲和中东等具有高增长潜力的地区开展贸易十分重要。通过与更多经济体建立联系，亚洲可以帮助维持全球化。服务贸易多元化也同样大有可为，这不仅是因为区内服务贸易的开放程度相对较低，还因为蓬勃发展的数字经济为数字化交付各种服务出口提供令人振奋的机会。
第三，提升自身能力。如果我们要吸引外国投资，培养人才和发展基础设施（包括实体和数字基础设施）是至关重要的。对数字基础设施的投资将使区域经济体能够利用如生成式人工智能之类的新兴技术提高生产力，加强与全球经济的连通性，并通过让企业更方便地监测其供应链合作伙伴的环境、社会和公司治理（ESG）表现，使供应链更具可持续性。
最后，深化区域合作。供应链的区域化在促进可持续性和加强跨境支付架构方面，为加强合作提供了独特的机遇。在可持续发展方面，新冠疫情发生后，企业加大力度提高供应链的ESG表现。我们的研究发现，提升ESG表现的企业往往也会提升其供应商的ESG表现。我认为，这意味着在绿色技术和加强区内可持续金融生态系统方面有相当大的合作空间。
同时，随着亚洲贸易和供应链变得更紧密，在区内贸易结算和其他方面使用本地货币的空间也越来越大。事实上，越来越多的经济体，包括东盟在内，希望在与中国的贸易中使用人民币结算。为此，跨境支付基础设施需要提高效率以满足需求。
接下来，我将谈谈香港的独特优势，以及其如何助力应对未来的挑战。要把握东盟、中东和非洲等市场所带来的增长机遇，我们必须扩大贸易网络和改善物流基建。为此，香港积极参与“一带一路”倡议，并申请加入区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP），这为香港的长期增长开辟了新的路径。
在金融服务领域，香港一直是最大的离岸人民币中心，随着人民币在国际贸易和投资中的应用日益广泛，这一角色将继续强化。为了提升能力并保持其作为主要离岸人民币业务中心的地位，香港正在流动性、产品和基础设施三个方面努力。
香港已拥有最大的离岸人民币资金池。与中国人民银行签订的优化货币互换协议，通过金管局设立的人民币流动性资金安排，为离岸市场提供了进一步的流动资金支持，进而满足不断增长的业务需求。
产品方面，香港将继续升级和扩大内地和香港的的互联互通计划。香港毗邻內地的独特地理优势、普通法制度及世界级的基建设施，使香港成为中国内地资本账户开放的理想“试验场”。与此同时，我们正不断扩大人民币产品和工具的范围，以更好地进行跨境投资、资产配置和风险管理。
在基础设施方面，债务工具中央结算系统（CMU），也就是香港的中央证券托管机构，现正进行大规模改革，以提升其营运能力和产品种类，为人民币债券发行及相关托管服务需求的增长提供更好支持。
我们与BIS和包括中国人民银行在内的多家中央银行合作开展的mBridge项目也在稳步推进。我们最新的试点测试表明，这个中央银行数字货币批发平台能够以更低的成本和更高的透明度提升跨境支付效率。我们期待更多的中央银行机构加入这一开放平台。很快，我们将推出所谓的"最简可行产品"，旨在为mBridge的逐步商业化铺平道路。希望这个新的创新平台能有助于解决跨境支付中长期存在的痛点，提高全球价值链的效率。
与此同时，香港会继续走在数字化、创新及ESG等全球最新趋势的前列。例如，我们最近公布了新的金融科技推广计划，以加快金融业应用金融科技的步伐。
香港的绿色融资平台也为亚洲企业提供了利用可持续融资并提升ESG表现的理想途径。香港最近发行了全球首个代币化政府绿色债券。在绿色债券代币化方面的实践让我们看到了数字化的力量，它将推动一个更加绿色、更加包容、更加互联的未来。
全球化正处于十字路口。但只要做好充分准备，亚洲地区完全有能力适应全球贸易格局的变化。我希望今天的会议能让我们进一步了解如何管理风险以及如何抓住未来的机遇。谢谢大家。
英文演讲全文
Distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,
Good morning. It is an honour and a pleasure to join you today at the 5th Bund Summit. With globalisation now at a crossroads amid increasing risk of geo-economic fragmentation, this Session “What’s Next for Globalisation” could not be more timely.
Globalisation has brought enormous benefits to emerging markets and helped keep global inflation in check. The golden era of globalisation, however, has given way to a gradual slowdown in global trade in goods after the 2008 financial crisis. In certain parts of the world, public support for globalisation has also waned for various reasons, notwithstanding the obvious benefits of better, more affordable products delivered by globalised value chains. It appears that this slowing down in global goods trade is likely to continue, leaving trade in services and other flows to pick up the baton in sustaining globalisation.
As economic efficiency becomes less of a priority, the global economy risks being fragmented into different blocs. Such setbacks to globalisation are unfortunate, particularly for Asia, given the region’s relatively open economies. According to the IMF, if the world were to segregate into two distinct blocs with little or no trade between them, Asia Pacific’s GDP could be reduced by over 3% annually.
Such a dismal outcome seems unlikely, as no economy can be fully self-sufficient. A full-blown financial decoupling is also unlikely, given how highly interconnected the global financial system is. Even so, we now seem to be moving down the path towards fragmentation, as practical and pragmatic economic considerations are giving way to protectionism and cross-border restrictions.
Our recent joint study with the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) finds that the total number of global value chain network linkages dropped by some 30% between February 2020 and the end of 2021. Of course, part of these changes may reflect pandemic disruptions, and efforts by businesses to shorten and regionalise supply chains. Unfortunately, geopolitics has also played a part.
With all these developments, one question often asked is about the role of China in this “new normal” environment. How will China’s trade and investment relationship with some of its major trading partners evolve?
Some might be worried that these changes could have a negative impact on China’s external trade. But let me offer a different proposition: while some shifts in supply chains are likely to happen over time, a large-scale relocation of complex supply chain networks is less likely. We recently did a research on the global organisation structures of major industries that are important to Asia, which finds that the production networks of industries such as the automotive and IT sectors are highly complex and intertwined across regions. Coupled with the capital-intensive nature of these industries, and the fact that most economies in Asia are unlikely to have the necessary scale and capacity to host these complex and large-scale supply chains, it would be difficult for any wholesale relocation of these more sophisticated supply chain networks.
More importantly, China is likely to play an even more significant role in shaping regional supply chains. This is based on two considerations. First, China has the comparative advantages of a large domestic market and ample supply capacity. Second, Chinese manufacturing industries have made efforts to move up the value chain. Even as Chinese exports might take up a smaller share of some markets, China continues to account for a significant and stable share of world imports, by exporting more intermediate goods and capturing a larger share of imports in regional economies.
In fact, China’s role in the high-value-added segment of the global export market is bound to increase further going forward. Another recent HKMA study finds that, based on international experience, the global export share of a country tends to rise in tandem with its domestic consumption, particularly for countries specialising in more sophisticated products. There is strong evidence that China is following this pattern, with the mix of domestic consumption and exports all shifting from basic to sophisticated products over time.
Hopefully, by now you will feel less pessimistic about the prospect of globalisation. But this doesn’t mean we can be complacent, and Asia still has much to do to overcome the headwinds of de-globalisation. Yet, no challenges are too difficult to be surmounted. In my view, there are four principles that could help Asia capture new opportunities from the reshuffling of global value chains.
First, stay resilient. In the face of changing investment flows, it is important for regional economies to maintain ample buffers and ensure that their financial systems are resilient against shocks. Further development of FX derivatives markets and expansion of the domestic investor base would help. Both help support market stability at times of stress.
Second, diversify trade. Trade diversification to regions with high growth potential, such as Africa and the Middle East is important. By connecting with more economies, Asia can help sustain globalisation. Trade in services is another promising area for diversification, not only because of the relatively low levels of trade openness in services regionally, but also because the burgeoning digital economy offers exciting opportunities to export a wide range of digitally-deliverable services.
Third, develop capacity. Grooming talent and developing infrastructure, both physical and digital, are essential if we are to attract foreign investment. And investment in digital infrastructure will allow regional economies to harness emerging trends, such as generative AI, to enhance productivity, increase connectivity to the global economy, and make supply chains more sustainable by allowing firms to monitor the ESG performance of their supply chain partners more easily.
And finally, deepen regional collaboration. The regionalisation of supply chains offers unique opportunities for greater collaboration, in terms of promoting sustainability and enhancing the architecture for cross-border payments. Regarding sustainability, firms have stepped up efforts to enhance the ESG performance of their supply chains after the pandemic. Our research finds that firms that upgrade their ESG performance tend to improve their suppliers’ ESG performance as well. I believe this means there is considerable scope for cooperation in green technologies and enhancing the ecosystem of sustainable finance in the region.
Meanwhile, as trade and supply chain linkages in Asia become more integrated, there is greater scope to use local currencies in regional trade settlement and beyond. Indeed, an increasing number of economies, including those in the ASEAN, want to use the RMB to settle their trade with China. To facilitate this, the cross-border payments infrastructure needs to become more efficient to keep up with demand.
And of course it would be remiss of me not to talk about Hong Kong’s unique advantages and how it can help meet the challenges ahead. As well as building on our traditional role as a gateway between the East and West, if we are to capture growth opportunities offered by markets such as the ASEAN, the Middle East and Africa, we need to expand trade networks and improve logistic infrastructure. To this end, Hong Kong’s active participation in the Belt and Road Initiative, and application for accession to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, represent new avenues of long-term growth for Hong Kong.
In financial services, Hong Kong has long been the largest offshore RMB centre and this role will continue to grow as the RMB is used more widely in international trade and investment. To develop capacity and maintain its position as the leading offshore RMB business hub, Hong Kong is working hard on three fronts: liquidity, products, and infrastructure.
Hong Kong already hosts the biggest offshore RMB liquidity pool. The enhanced Currency Swap Agreement with the People’s Bank of China provides further liquidity support to the offshore market through the RMB liquidity facilities set up by the HKMA, to meet the growing business demand.
As regards products, Hong Kong will continue to upgrade and expand the family of Connect Schemes between Mainland China and Hong Kong. Our unique advantages of physical proximity to the Mainland, the common law system and world-class infrastructure make us the perfect “testing ground” for China’s journey towards capital account liberalisation. At the same time, we are constantly working to widen the spectrum of RMB products and tools for cross-boundary investment, asset allocation and risk management.
On infrastructure, the Central Moneymarkets Unit, which is Hong Kong’s central securities depository, is undergoing a major overhaul to upgrade its operational capacity and product offerings, to better support the growth of RMB bond issuance and associated custodian services. Our mBridge project, which is a collaboration with the BIS and a number of central banks including the People’s Bank of China is also pressing ahead. Our latest pilot test has demonstrated that this wholesale central bank digital currency platform can speed up cross-border payments at reduced cost and with better transparency. We are expecting to welcome more fellow central banks to join this open platform. And very soon we will launch what we call a minimum viable product, with the aim of paving the way for the gradual commercialisation of mBridge. Hopefully this new innovative platform will help resolve longstanding pain points in cross-border payments and enhance the efficiency of the global value chain.
Meanwhile, Hong Kong will stay at the forefront of the latest global trends such as digitalisation, innovation and ESG. As examples, we recently published our new Fintech Promotion Roadmap to accelerate fintech adoption in the financial services industry.
Hong Kong’s green financing platform also offers an excellent way for Asian corporates to tap sustainable financing and enhance their ESG performance. Hong Kong recently issued the world’s first tokenised government green bond. Our experience in tokenising green bonds offers a glimpse of the power of digitalisation as an enabler of a greener, more inclusive and more connected future.
To conclude, globalisation is now at a crossroads. But with good preparation, the Asia region is well positioned to adapt to changes in the global trade landscape. I hope that today’s conference will give us further insights on how to manage the risks and seize the opportunities ahead. Thank you.
版面编辑：瑟瑟｜责任编辑：瑟瑟
视觉：李盼 东子
监制：李俊虎 潘潘