我在海外说：怎么看这次缅甸的军方政变？军方开枪了吗？

这篇本来应该是昨天发出来，但是昨天的邮件让我太兴奋了，今天来发发这篇文章。

需要指出，目前缅甸民众的看法两极分化。而且上街游行的不仅仅是反对缅甸军方的，也有支持缅甸军方的，双方还发生了冲突。

西方媒体其实没几个记者在缅甸，目前西方媒体报道的那些新闻，都是抄袭社交媒体上来自缅甸的信息，或者干脆自己来编造。

在社交媒体上的缅甸人，其实也是选择性说话的多，大多数人都是按自己的立场来发言，所以我还是那句话，不要轻易下结论。

What do the Myanmar people think about this 2021 coup d'etat?

It needs to be pointed out that the Western audience has once again been duped by the Western media. I have confirmed two things from my partners in Burma, and from social media.

1. The current crowds of protesters in Burma are not as big as the West makes them out to be. There are only a few thousand to tens of thousands per day. But in Western media reports, it seems that the whole of Myanmar is on strike.

This is the march against the military

2. More crucially, the demonstrations are not only against the junta, but there are also large numbers of pro-junta supporters taking to the streets to demonstrate their support for the junta. There were also a number of clashes between protesters. This was largely unreported by the Western media. The viewers were given the false impression that all those who took to the streets seemed to be opposed to the Burmese military.

This is the monks' march in support of the Burmese military

3. Organised demonstrations against the Burmese military are now appearing in a very similar way to the Hong Kong opposition in 2019

Most of the above news can be found in social networks, such as FB and telegraph groups.

This was a march against the military.

The act of putting children at the front of the parade needs to be condemned.This is an act of human shielding with no regard for the lives of children

Some demonstrators, in uniform dress code.

4. It is especially important that the authenticity of the people who have died can be confirmed through social networks at the moment, that is, that someone can be confirmed in a real death situation. There must not be more than 10 people.

I am talking about confirmation here, for example through hospital emergencies, or funerals, etc. And strangely enough, the confirmed deaths seem to be largely Muslim.

I can't say whether this is the right method of counting, but I think it's more accurate than the Western media's casual writing.

But Western media reports accuse the Burmese military of killing dozens, hundreds or more.

对于这次2021年的政变，缅甸人民怎么看？

需要指出的是，西方观众又一次被西方媒体欺骗了。我从我在缅甸的伙伴，以及社交媒体上证实了两件事。

1. 目前缅甸的抗议人群并没有西方人说的那么多。每天只有几千到几万人。但在西方媒体的报道中，似乎整个缅甸都在罢工。（这个是我亲自问的，西方媒体在报道缅甸有几十万几百万人去游行）

这就是反军方的游行

2. 更为关键的是，这些示威活动不仅是针对军政府的，而且还有大量亲军政府的支持者走上街头，表示对军政府的支持。示威者之间也发生了一些冲突。西方媒体对此基本没有报道。观众得到的错误印象是，所有上街的人似乎都是反对缅甸军方的。

这是僧侣们支持缅甸军方的游行。

3. 现在出现的有组织的反缅甸军方示威活动，与2019年香港反对派的情况非常相似。

上述新闻大多可以在FB、电报群等社交网络中找到。

这是一场反对军队的游行。把儿童放在游行队伍前面的行为需要受到谴责.这是一种不顾儿童生命的人性保护行为。

部分示威者，统一着装。

4. 特别重要的是，目前可以通过社交网络确认死亡人员的真实性，也就是可以确认有人真实死亡的情况。不能超过10个人。（这个数字是前几天的）

我这里说的是确认，比如说通过医院的急诊，或者是葬礼等等。而奇怪的是，确认死亡的人似乎大部分是穆斯林。

我不能说这样的统计方法是否正确，但我认为比西方媒体的随意写法更准确。

但西方媒体的报道指责缅甸军方杀了几十人、几百人甚至更多。

这一次缅甸的思维游行，已经高度跟2019年香港的暴乱一致了。

1、香港是黑衣人、黑色伞。缅甸出现了统一的红色伞。（这个显然说明了有赞助经费、有幕后统一组织。）

2、把小孩子放到队伍的前面，让小孩子上街。（实话说，就凭这个让小孩站排头，我就看不起这些游行的人了。）

3、西方媒体依然是报道一半，直接忽视了支持军方的游行。（这次比香港更无语，因为西方都没几名记者在缅甸）

4、依然是假记者在中间，不过缅甸军方可没香港警方那么好脾气了。直接揍得西方媒体都受不了了。

这些是什么“记者“呢？就两个。

仰光新闻学校创始人、资深记者叶奈莫（Ye Naing Moe）

摄影记者铁昂宽（Htet Aung Khant）在曼德勒为美国之音缅甸语组报道当地的冲突。（原文）

当我搜索了一下资料发现

仰光新闻学院（YJS）是缅甸第一家独立的私立新闻学院，于2009年在仰光成立。但是，自2003年以来，其培训师就一直在美国教授新闻学。YJS是由在加州大学伯克利分校研究新闻学的高级记者叶娜莫（Ye Naing Moe）和他的同事们创立的。

原来这是一位“美国人”在缅甸办“新闻学校”。大家都明白了吧。

至于所谓摄影记者的介绍很有意思：“在曼德勒为美国之音缅甸语组报道”，而不是美国之音的记者。说白了，这就是一个拍照的。

另外针对西方说缅甸军方随意开枪的情况，我也表示了不大可信，这是另外一篇文章。

Why are Myanmar soldiers shooting civilians for little to no reason?

I don't think the Burmese army would shoot civilians for no reason. That's just what the Western media is reporting, or what is coming from Burmese opposition figures.

I've been following Burma's social networks closely lately, I've joined a lot of Burma groups and I read a lot of Burma news every day, both for and against the Burmese government.

I then compare these messages and use conventional logic to determine what is right and what is wrong.

It's like this question.

So far, even the Western media has only admitted that dozens of people have been killed.

It is important to know that demonstrations are currently taking place all over Burma (both pro and anti-government groups). If the army were to shoot, it would inevitably lead to even greater demonstrations. This is a basic common sense.

So that means that the Burmese army must have received orders as to what kind of situations they could and could not fire in.

In a situation like the one mentioned in the question, the Burmese military would certainly not shoot at people for no reason. To take the initiative to provoke the protesters, that would make things bigger, which is not in the interest of the Burmese military.

So, based on this basic common sense, my judgement is that the people being shot at should have been doing some sort of attack on the military personnel when the shooting took place. Or of course they could have been hit by a stray bullet.

I would just like to remind everyone that it is not the first time or twice that the Western media has created rumours, and there are not many Western media reporters in Myanmar these days, and their so-called information actually comes from the internet and pastiches. The authenticity is very doubtful.

Think about those BBC rumours.

缅甸士兵为什么会无缘无故射杀平民？

我不认为缅甸军队会无缘无故射杀平民。这只是西方媒体的报道，或者缅甸反对派人士的说法。

我最近一直在密切关注缅甸的社交网络，我加入了很多缅甸的团体，我每天都会看很多缅甸的新闻，有支持缅甸政府的，也有反对缅甸政府的。

我就会对比这些消息，用常规的逻辑来判断哪些是对的，哪些是错的。

就像这个问题。

到目前为止，连西方媒体也只承认有几十人死亡。

要知道，目前缅甸各地都在发生示威活动（包括亲政府和反政府团体）。如果军队开枪，势必会导致更大规模的示威活动。这是一个基本常识。

所以也就是说，缅甸军队一定是接到了命令，什么样的情况下可以开枪，什么样的情况下不能开枪。

像问题中提到的那种情况，缅甸军队肯定不会无缘无故向人开枪。主动挑衅抗议者，那会把事情闹大，这不符合缅甸军方的利益。

所以，根据这个基本常识，我的判断是，被枪击的人在枪击发生时，应该是在对军人进行某种攻击。当然也可能是被流弹击中。

（附注：据新加坡《联合早报》引述缅甸国营电视台缅甸广播电视台（MRTV）3月2日报道称，军方1日指示安全部队避免使用实弹。军方同时还谴责抗议者使用弹弓和汽油弹，是“煽动暴力”。MRTV报道称，军方允许安全部队在“生命受到威胁”时，向示威者腰部以下位置射击。军方还表示，至今已有超过1300名抗议者被捕。）

我只想提醒大家，西方媒体造谣已经不是第一次两次了，现在西方媒体在缅甸的记者并不多，他们所谓的信息其实都是来自网络和拼凑。真实性是非常值得怀疑的。

想想BBC的那些谣言。

针对3月3日缅甸曼德勒的示威活动中，一名19岁的华裔女孩邓家希不幸身亡事件，军方表示将由执法机构着手对其死因进行调查，并在适当的时候发布调查结果。

缅甸军方表示，邓家希头部中弹现场照片显示伤口不是由防暴武器造成的，如果是头部受到防暴武器或子弹的伤害，则创伤会更为严重，具体的真相还需征求相关领域专家的意见。

这是我在网上找到的枪伤伤口照片。按照法医学说法，子弹射入口的形态：弹头穿进皮肤时，形成组织缺损，多呈圆形，有时可呈星形，其大小常较弹头直径小。

似乎与邓家希头部伤口不一样。

往期推荐

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