崔氏指数 l 项庄舞剑 意在沛公：特朗普以及美国的逆鳞
在2009年“崔氏指数”进行系统应用肇始，曾做了一个专题片（见如下链接）
CCVI中国价值指数
https://mp.weixin.qq.com/cgi-bin/appmsg?begin=0&count=9&action=list_video&type=15&token=213091922&lang=zh_CN
在该视频中从产业投资理论视角，都全球及美国、新兴市场经济体国家的产业投资价值曲线做了简略的勾勒。
产业投资理论以“崔氏指数Cui Value Index”为实证工具，以产业投资安全、产业投资竞争力、政策风险指数建模及推演全球及中国产业变异格局，得出美国及发达国家如何通过控制产业上游、进而遏制和削弱新兴市场经济体竞争力的“崔氏指数（产业）价值曲线”及其相关结论。
产业投资理论同样应用于世界竞争规则领域，比如包括WTO这样的规则，美国必须在其中占据相对甚至绝对的话语权，但凡美国不积极参与的世界性规则如碳排放等，就会在世界范围内效力减半。
美国及发达国家以占据全球的科技创新制高点为世界发展引擎，通过知识产权保护以维护自己的创新价值及其垄断性权益。因此，知识产权及技术创新是美国的核心保护领域。
科技创新制高点、知识产权保护、传统与创新资本市场，由此构成美国主宰或左右全球竞争格局的三维合壁，此为美国的“逆鳞”。
以产业投资理论推演当今世界及其中美冲突，并非贸易领域，更非逆差或顺差，而是美国对中国科技创新发展的疑惧或戒备。中国在以美国作为规则制定者的全球竞争博弈过程，一直处于被奴役的地位，盖因为中国为了经济快速而一而再地采取急功近利政策，从改革开放初期即采取技术贸易而非自身科技创新培育，去获得一个国家的产业竞争根基，因此导致数十年来，中国在技术领域大量、盲目引进发达国家几近淘汰、甚至中试阶段的过渡技术、不安全技术的中国市场应用。发达国家在向中国市场“倾销”自身科技技术的同时，迎合了中国这种急功近利、投机取巧的产业发展策略，等于变相抑制或削弱中国科技创新能力。
直到如今，中国尽管号称所谓制造业大国，但所有的高端技术创新领域，核心技术仍然为美国等发达国家控制。中国，仅仅是技术应用大国，而非技术强国；中国，仅仅是加工业低端设备装备基地，而非制造业大国。
尽管中国近年来随着互联网技术渗透的应用之金融互联网包括近日喧嚣尘上的区块链等等，得到了夸夸其谈的“进步”或业绩，但其仍然属于技术应用，对提振、优化传统产业资源收效甚微！
从技术演化到产业形态，需要一个相对漫长的过程。而创新技术只有与传统基础接壤，才会逐步形成产业竞争基础和竞争力引擎，目前中国的科技创新包括知识产权等，真正实现这一步还有相当长的距离。
通过中国履约wto规则状况、在知识产权领域的山寨复制，使得中国成为全球科技领域最让人头疼的对手！而且视之为非善意的、防贼般的存在！所以，中国要想进入发达国家的市场，将面临越来越顽强的抵制。
中国市场鲜有平等市场竞争行为的“规矩”，国有企业、寡头企业控制着中国创新的活力资源，一个庞大的充满想象力的应用市场与一个视科技创新为产业竞争安全和竞争力优势为生命的全球老大之间，假如市场不能实现一体化，就只能通过贸易规则或极权博弈冲突不断；假如坚持市场及其规则各行其是，那么就会引来越来越尖锐、复杂的非贸易及非市场领域的博弈和剧烈撞击！
一切都仅仅的开始！此次所谓贸易战可以忽略不计。
以下所附译及点评来自公微the_great_time，仅做附文参考，特此致谢！如涉版权，随即删除。
Diplomatic Room
12:45 P.M. EDT
THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you everybody. This hasbeen long in the making. You’ve heard many, many speeches by me and talksby me, and interviews where I talk about unfair trade practices. We’velost, over a fairly short period of time, 60,000 factories in our country —closed, shuttered, gone. Six million jobs, at least, gone. And nowthey’re starting to come back. You see what’s happening with Chrysler,with Foxconn, with so many other companies wanting to come back into the UnitedStates.
（特朗普专门提到了富士康Foxconn，应该指的是去年下半年传出富士康会在威斯康星投资一百亿美元建LCD液晶屏厂的新闻。然而富士康还要登陆A股呢，一个是要它投资，一个是帮它融资，你说它会向着谁？）
But we have one particular problem. And I view them as afriend; I have tremendous respect for President Xi. We have a greatrelationship. They’re helping us a lot in North Korea. And that’sChina.
（特朗普提到在朝鲜事件上中国帮助了美国很多，之前所谓美国绕开中国和朝鲜接触的说法应该是不成立的）
But we have a trade deficit, depending on the way you calculate,of $504 billion. Now, some people would say it’s really $375billion. Many different ways of looking at it, but any way you look atit, it is the largest deficit of any country in the history of our world. It’s out of control.
We have a tremendous intellectual property theft situation goingon, which likewise is hundreds of billions of dollars. And that’s on ayearly basis. I’ve spoken to the President. I’ve spoken torepresentatives of China. We’ve been dealing with it very seriously.
（从贸易逆差说到知识产权问题，后面特别提到和中国领导人和代表都有沟通，双方都在非常认真地对待此事。注意，这是第一次提到双方在沟通。）
As you know, we’re renegotiating NAFTA. We’ll see how thatturns out. Many countries are calling to negotiate better trade dealsbecause they don’t want to have to pay the steel and aluminum tariffs. And we are negotiating with various countries — Mr. Lighthizer, Mr. Ross.
（映证了之前对钢铁和铝产品征税只是声东击西，先给一鞭子再豁免，为的是稳住其他贸易伙伴，再集中力量对付中国。川普这招666）
We are just starting a negotiation with the European Unionbecause they’ve really shut out our country to a large extent. They havebarriers that — they can trade with us but we can’t trade with them. They’re very strong barriers. They have very high tariffs. Wedon’t. It’s just not fair.
NAFTA has been a very bad deal for the United States, but we’llmake it better or we’ll have to do something else. The deal we have withSouth Korea is a very one-sided deal. It’s a deal that has to be changed.
（背景补充：特朗普刚签署了对韩国的贸易关税豁免。）
So we have a lot of things happening. But in particular,with China, we’re going to be doing a Section 301 trade action. It couldbe about $60 billion but that’s really just a fraction of what we’re talkingabout.
（600亿美元这个数字第一次出现，特朗普表示这还只是个开始。大部分媒体那些扎眼的标题都是从这里出来的。）
I’ve been speaking with the highest Chinese representatives,including the President, and I’ve asked them to reduce the trade deficitimmediately by $100 billion. It’s a lot. So that would be anywherefrom 25 percent, depending on the way you figure, to maybe something even morethan that. But we have to do that.
（第二次提到和中国的沟通，包括领导人和代表。）
The word that I want to use is “reciprocal.” When theycharge 25 percent for a car to go in, and we charge 2 percent for their car tocome into the United States, that’s not good. That’s how China rebuiltitself. The tremendous money that we’ve paid since the founding of theWorld Trade Organization — which has actually been a disaster for us. It’s been very unfair to us. The arbitrations are very unfair. Thejudging has been very unfair. And knowingly, we always have a minorityand it’s not fair.
（Reciprocal是互惠的意思，这个词后面还会反复出现。特朗普直指中国进口汽车的高关税，不过就算美国对中国进口汽车只征收2%的税，进口量有多少？）
So we’re talking to World Trade, we’re talking to NAFTA, we’retalking to China, we’re talking to the European Union. And I will say,every single one of them wants to negotiate. And I believe that, in manycases — maybe all cases — we’ll end up negotiating a deal.
（每一次的沟通，不管是和NAFTA，中国，还是欧洲，最后都会协商一个deal！划重点！协商一个deal才是最终目的！）
So we’ve spoken to China and we’re in the midst of a very largenegotiation. We’ll see where it takes us. But in the meantime, weare sending a Section 301 action. I’ll be signing it right here, rightnow. I’d like to ask Bob Lighthizer to say a few words about the 301 andwhere we are in that negotiation.
（重点来了！特朗普明确表示，正在和中国方面沟通，正在进行一个大型谈判！所以现在动用301，只是为了给谈判中加些砝码！）
And we’re doing things for this country that should have beendone for many, many years. We’ve had this abuse by many other countriesand groups of countries that were put together in order to take advantage ofthe United States, and we don’t want that to happen. We’re not going tolet that happen. It’s probably one of the reasons I was elected; maybeone of the main reasons. But we’re not going to let that happen.
（废话连篇）
We have, right now, an $800 billion trade deficit with theworld. So think of that. So let’s say we have 500 to 375, but let’ssay we have 500 with China, but we have 800 total with the world. Thatwould mean that China is more than half. So we’re going to get it takencare of. And, frankly, it’s going to make us a much stronger, much richernation.
（美国贸易逆差一般是对中国的，这是事实，但减少逆差就能让美国更强大更富有，哥们你确定吗？如果没有中国制造的诸多商品，你确定美国人民能过上更好的日子？）
The word is “reciprocal.” That’s the word I want everyoneto remember. We want reciprocal — mirror. Some people call it amirror tariff or a mirror tax. Just use the word reciprocal. Ifthey charge us, we charge them the same thing. That’s the way it’s got tobe. That’s not the way it is. For many, many years — for manydecades, it has not been that way.
（可能是觉得Reciprocal这个词太复杂了，不符合他的用词习惯，此处还用了一个根本不是同义词的mirror。）
And I will say, the people we’re negotiating with — smilingly,they really agree with us. I really believe they cannot believe they’vegotten away with this for so long.
（再次强调，美国在和各路人等谈判协商。）
I’ll talk to Prime Minister Abe of Japan and others — great guy,friend of mine — and there will be a little smile on their face. And thesmile is, “I can’t believe we’ve been able to take advantage of the UnitedStates for so long.” So those days are over.
（很怀疑安倍的笑容会是在说，啊没想到我们可以占美国这么久的便宜……他的笑容更可能会是幸灾乐祸吧——啊当年美日贸易战我们被搞得那么惨，现在也轮到中国了哈哈哈）
Ambassador Lighthizer, thank you.
AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER: Well, thank you very much, Mr.President. First of all, for those of you who don’t know, Section 301 isa statute that gives substantial power, authority to the President to correctactions in certain circumstances where there’s unfair acts, policies, orpractices by our trading partners.
（现任贸易代表莱特希泽，一个强硬派，废话不多，直接说明301调查的含义。）
In this case, the area is technology. Technology isprobably the most important part of our economy. There’s 44 millionpeople who work in high-tech knowledge areas. No country has as muchtechnology-intensive industry as the United States. And technology isreally the backbone of the future of the American economy.
（揭晓答案，真正贸易战针对的是根本不是大宗商品，而是科技领域。因为中国的科技发展威胁到美国了。）
Given these problems, the President asked USTR to conduct astudy. We conducted a thorough study. We had hearings. Wereviewed tens of thousands of pages of documents. We talked to many, manybusiness people. We had testimony, as I say.
（针对中国知识产权和科技领域的301调查其实是去年8月就开始的，迄今半年过去了，是时候得出结论了。）
And we concluded that, in fact, China does have a policy offorced technology transfer; of requiring licensing at less than economic value;of state capitalism, wherein they go in and buy technology in the United Statesin non-economic ways; and then, finally, of cyber theft.
（中国想在科技领域弯道超车，肯定得有些上不了台面的招数啊。否则美国人会将科技领先的位置拱手相让吗？至少我去一些重点实验室调研的时候，教授们也表示想走正规渠道从美国带回些仪器来简直是不可能的啊。）
The result of this has been that the President has analyzed it —we have a 200-page study which we will put out — and he has concluded that weshould put in place tariffs on appropriate products — we can explain later howwe concluded what products they are; that we would put investment restrictionson China with respect to high technology; and that we’ll file a WTO case. Because one of the actions here does involve a WTO violation.
（美国并没有完全放弃WTO，还有一个case会在WTO体系下去投诉中国。）
This is an extremely important action, very significant and veryimportant for the future of the country, really, across industries. And Iwould really like to thank you very much, Mr. President, for giving me theopportunity to work on it.
（呵呵。最后拍老板一下马屁，感谢给工作啊。）
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you very much, Bob. SecretaryRoss.
SECRETARY ROSS: Intellectual property rights are ourfuture, and it’s no accident that in June of this year, the U.S. Patent andTrademark Office will issue its 10 millionth patent — 10 million patents. There’s no country in the history of the world that remotely approaches that.
（在科技领域更重要的是专利，是知识产权，这是美国目前的镇国之宝了。）
So the steel and aluminum actions we’ve taken deal more or lesswith the present. This action on intellectual property rights deals withthe future. So we’re trying to solve both today’s problem and problemsthat otherwise will be forthcoming. That’s why these actions are soimportant and so important in unison with each other. We will end upnegotiating these things, rather than fighting over them, in my view.
（再次揭露重点——钢铁和铝产品的关税是为了现在，而针对知识产权的贸易行动是为了未来。美国人很清楚如果让中国在科技领域迎头赶上，结果是什么。但最后一句也值得玩味——美国会和对手谈判协商这些事情，而不是fighting。）
THE PRESIDENT: Mike Pence, would you like to saysomething?
THE VICE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Mr. President, and to allour honored guests. Today’s action sends a clear message that thisPresident and our entire administration are determined to put American jobs andAmerican workers first.
（呵呵。）
The action the President will take today under Section 301 alsomakes it clear that the era of economic surrender is over. The UnitedStates of America is taking targeted and focused action to protect not onlyAmerican jobs, but America’s technology, which will power and drive aninnovation economy for decades to come.
（副总统也来强调一下重点，这次行动压根就不是为了就业，而是为了美国未来几十年的领先地位。）
It is just one more step of a promise made and a promise kept byPresident Trump.
THE PRESIDENT: So we’ll sign right now. I just wantto let everybody know, just for a second time, that we are in the midst of verymajor and very positive negotiations. Positive for the United States and,actually, very positive for other countries also.
（特朗普最后一次强调，现在和对手还在谈判中！而且是在一个非常有建设性的谈判中！）
We have some of our great business leaders — and leaders, period— right behind me. I may ask Marillyn — Lockheed — the leading woman’sbusiness executive in this country, according to many. And we buybillions and billions of dollars’ worth of that beautiful F-35. It’sstealth. You cannot see it. Is that correct?
（Marillyn是洛克希德马丁——世界第一的武器制造商——的女老板。这个时候把她抬出来，无非是让美国人意识到中国在军事技术领域也可能会借助一些手段赶超美国，这样他们危机感会更强。）
MS. HEWSON: That’s correct, Mr. President.
THE PRESIDENT: Better be correct. Right?
MS. HEWSON: Absolutely.
THE PRESIDENT: Marillyn, please say a few words.
MS. HEWSON: Well, thank you, Mr. President. I wouldjust say that this is a very important moment for our country, in that we areaddressing what is a critical area for the aerospace and defense industry, andthat is protecting our intellectual property. As has been expressed, thatis a threat to us if we have that stolen from our companies, because that isthe lifeblood of our companies.
（让一个中国最不可能从非正常途径获得技术的行业作为代表，也是很讽刺了。）
And so, we very much welcome this action on the part of theTrump administration and the President of the United States. Thank you.
THE PRESIDENT: Thank you, Marillyn.
This is the first of many. This is number one, but this isthe first of many.
(The memorandum is signed.)
Thank you all very much. Marillyn. Thank you verymuch.
MS. HEWSON: Thank you, Mr. President.
Q Mr. President, would you still like totestify to the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller?
THE PRESIDENT: I would like to. I would like to.
END
12:58 P.M. EDT
OK。到这里全部看完了，结论也很清楚了，离贸易战开展还有最后15天。
最后强调几个重点：
第一，美国和中国正在谈判，此次签备忘录是一个重磅砝码。因为美国商务部还会有15天的时间去确定关税涉及的商品名单，现在还没有开始征收关税。
第二，科技和知识产权领域才是美国最重视的领域，制造业回流只是一个幌子，钢铁和铝制品的关税更是虚晃一枪。就像现在有的一些客观分析里说的，是中国现在在技术领域的飞速发展让美国产生了深深的戒备之心。九十年代那一轮的知识产权谈判最终带来了中国在文化领域的开放，那这一轮的谈判又会带来什么呢？
第三，静观未来15天的形势变化，不到最后一刻不要随便说贸易战已经开打了。至少中国商务部目前的反制措施完全是针对“钢铁和铝产品关税”这件事的（商务部网站上的标题是《商务部新闻发言人就中方发布针对美国进口钢铁和铝产品232措施的中止减让产品清单发表谈话》），根本没有提到昨晚白宫发生的事情，这背后是留了余地的。
崔氏指数信息技术研究院Mr. Cui Index Information Technology Research Institute (CITRI或CCVI)，是由“崔氏量子指数理论”创立者及实验模型应用发明人崔新生领衔之信息数据量化、战略咨询、IT技术应用研发机构。代表性指数产品包括“CCVI中国价值指数Cui China Value Index”为评价、评级、投资引导、风险管理领域知名品牌以及CVI价值指数Cui Value Index®、IIVA产业投资价值分析师Industry Investment Value Analyst®、创意交易所Cui Creative Exchange®、民生幸福指数®以及三次产业贡献率、三次产业投资比等一系列指数产品应用，并应用于产业与金融价值标准无缝对接、虚拟资产定价以及产业投资规划、创意产品设计等战略咨询和应用方案。目前，“崔氏指数”已涉足“信息量子数链”、“信息量子能赋测序和赋值账户管理”等领域。
研究院专业团队组合为量子指数和数据科学实验室、信息数据标准应用实验室、指数产品运营中心，目前研发指数产品包括政策风险指数、民生幸福指数、能源金融指数、创意交易所指数、产业投资价值分析师指数等二十余种(类)，应用于产业与金融对接、虚拟交易品设计等领域。
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部分实证案例和品牌：
与之延伸的CCVI®中国价值指数，为评价、评级、投资引导、风险管理领域知名品牌，通过产业投资理论（模型）应用，建立产业与金融价值共识标准，实现金融投资与产业投资价值无缝对接。现应用于产业部门、金融机构等领域。
作为交易系统应用技术领域注册商标，为虚拟价值理论（模型）系统应用，通过创意价值标准交易品交易，实现“需求定价”。创意价值标准通过建立“量子指数理论”模型，贯穿从不确定到不确定价值确证交易。与此相对应的还有创意金融坊Creative Finance Space®、创锦赛Creative Championship®系统应用。
与工业革命相辅相成的产业经济学并不适用于中国及新兴国家经济体。产业投资理论作为非理性经济制度理论的旁支，通过产业投资安全、产业投资竞争力、政策风险指数之模型应用，为中国及新兴市场经济体国家，建立基于国家经济安全、公司产业竞争力战略部署、金融市场产业并购指引课程体系。
应用于地区、城镇、社群及公共体系数据指数化标准，为城市规划、技术项目研究、技术研究以及科研项目研究、无形资产评估、质量评估、质量体系认证等领域注册商标。
为CCVI、IIVA等媒体领域成果发布平台系统应用，根据媒体及研究部门需求，进行数据相关研究成果的发布和交流。
如需崔新生更进一步详细学术简历，可通过ccvi2009@sina.com 或 manager88@vip.sina.com
【非理性经济制度理论】简述
由崔新生1998年创立。“非理性经济制度理论”以极权原理、家长所有制规律、虚拟理论，构成完整的理论逻辑体系，推演人类非理性及非物理价值引导的行为范式。继1998年《制度简史》、《中国的极限》、《中国政策风险研究报告》后，2016年“非理性经济制度理论”延伸至更广阔深邃的思想空间，《量子指数理论——人类如何重启未来》横贯量子力学、禅境、非理性经济行为历程，为生命及人类世界与宇宙关系提出全新建构：物理思维与量子指数思维，人类由“一切以物质进行确定性（理性）假设，然后进行物理推演和价值判断”转变为“一切以物象符号进行不确定假设，然后以物象符号进行不确定（非理性）及其虚拟价值判断”。