AEA的小诺贝尔经济学奖公布, 41位青年才俊做了些什么
凡是搞计量经济的，都关注这个号了
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约翰·贝茨·克拉克奖由美国经济协会于1947 年在美国经济协会创始人、协会第三任会长、著名经济学家约翰·贝茨·克拉克（1847—1938）诞辰100周年之际所设立的。目的在于纪念约翰·贝茨·克拉克提出的边际生产力理论（边际生产率说）与生产耗竭理论、和研究出根植于边际效用的需求理论。这个奖项1947年设立，每两年评选一次，入选的基本资格为在美国大学任教、40岁以下的学者。它当前被誉为经济学界的“小诺贝尔奖”，这也代表了未来一定时期经济学发展的前沿方向，因此受到学界的高度关注和推崇。
今年2019: Emi Nakamura(实证宏观经济学)，日本裔
Emi Nakamura is an empirical macroeconomist who has greatly increased our understanding of price-setting by firms and the effects of monetary and fiscal policies. Nakamura’s distinctive approach is notable for its creativity in suggesting new sources of data to address long-standing questions in macroeconomics. The datasets she uses are more disaggregated, or higher-frequency, or extending over a longer historical period, than the postwar, quarterly, aggregate time series that have been the basis for most prior work on these topics in empirical macroeconomics. Her work has required painstaking analysis of data sources not previously exploited, and at the same time displays a sophisticated understanding of the alternative theoretical models that the data can be used to distinguish.
2018: Parag Pathak(市场机制设计和教育经济学)，尼泊尔裔
Parag Pathak is clearly the researcher under age forty who has contributed most both to the general field of market design, and, in addition, to what has been its most important application in the last decade or so, that of education policy. Pathak’s applied work in market design has led to significant improvements in the application of market-design tools to the assignment of students to public schools. He has pushed the boundaries of known theory to make it sensitive to cognitive limits of participants and relevant to practical environments. Pathak has developed creative empirical tools to evaluate the impacts of various policy issues facing the educational environment; examples being the case for charter schools and the impact of exam schools and voucher systems. Pathak’s work blends institutional knowledge, theoretical sophistication, and careful empirical analysis to provide insights that are of immediate value to important public-policy issues.
2017: Dave Donaldso(国际经济学)
Dave Donaldson is an empirical trade economist, with some of his work straddling the intersection of international trade and development economics. He has not only established himself as a leader in the field, but he has also formed and become the principal practitioner of a distinctive style of research, based on important conceptual questions, careful data work and credible identification combined with state-of-the-art structural methods. Donaldson's research adds profound insight into classic and fundamental issues in international trade.
2016: Yuliy Sannikov(动态博弈)，乌克兰裔
Yuliy Sannikov is a theorist who has developed new methods for analyzing continuous time dynamic games using stochastic calculus methods. His work has not only broken new ground in methodology, it has had a substantial influence on applied theory. He has significantly altered the toolbox available for studying dynamic games, and as a result of his contributions, new areas of economic inquiry have become tractable for rigorous theoretical analysis. The areas of application include the design of securities, contract theory, macroeconomics with financial frictions, market microstructure, and collusion.
2015: Roland Fryer(种族不平等)
Roland Fryer is an influential applied microeconomist whose work spans labor economics, the economics of education, and social problems and social interactions. His innovative and creative research contributions have deepened our understanding of the sources, magnitude, and persistence of U.S. racial inequality. He has made substantial progress in evaluating the policies that work and do not work to improve the educational outcomes and economic opportunities of children from disadvantaged backgrounds. His theoretical and empirical work on the “acting white” hypothesis of peer effects provides new insights into the difficulties of increasing the educational investments of minorities and the socially excluded. Fryer is the leading economist working on the economics of race and education, and he has produced the most important work in recent years on combating the racial divide, one of America’s most profound and long-lasting social problems.
2014: Matthew Gentzkow(媒体经济学)
Matthew Gentzkow has made fundamental contributions to our understanding of the economic forces driving the creation of media products, the changing nature and role of media in the digital environment, and the effect of media on education and civic engagement. He has thus emerged as a leader in a new generation of microeconomists applying economic methods to analyze questions that were historically analyzed by non-economists. His empirical work combines novel data, innovative identification strategies and careful empirical methods to answer questions at the interface of economics, political science, and sociology. This work is complemented by significant theoretical work on information, communication, and persuasion. Gentzkow, both on his own and in collaboration with his frequent co-author, Jesse Shapiro, has played a primary role in establishing a new and extremely promising empirical literature on the economics of the news media.
2013: Raj Chetty(公共经济学)，印度裔
Raj Chetty is an influential young economist working on tax policy, social insurance, and education policy. He uses new evidence about human behavior to synthesize results from different subfields of economics. For example, labor supply elasticities estimated from micro-level data typically show modest effects of changes in the after-tax wage rate on labor supply. The macroeconomics literature typically finds substantially larger equilibrium elasticities. In “Bounds on Elasticities with Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply,” Chetty develops a model in which inattention or adjustment costs prevent individuals from responding to many policy changes, leading to the conclusion that policy changes have small effects on behavior. However, in Chetty’s model, large changes capture people’s attention and provoke responses, which can explain why larger tax policy changes have larger effects, and why hours of work are less responsive than the decision to participate in the labor market.
2012: Amy Finkelstein(健康经济学)
Amy Finkelstein is the leading scholar in Health Economics and one of the most accomplished applied micro-economists of her generation. Finkelstein is distinguished by the ability to identify important and policy-relevant, yet tractable, research questions, a deep understanding of the institutions that are the focus of her research and creative, extremely careful and convincing empirical work. The methods she uses are sophisticated, informed by theory and appropriate for the questions under investigation. Her research agenda is centered on some of the most important and policy-relevant issues facing developed economies today. She has made important contributions to the literature on asymmetric information in health insurance and annuity markets and has provided convincing analyses of the effects of public intervention in health and long-term insurance markets. Her research serves as a model of how theory and empirics can be combined in creative ways in order to yield credible, novel and often unexpected insights into economic questions that will inform policy design.
2011: Jonathan Levin(产业组织理论)
Jonathan Levin is a leading scholar in the fields of industrial organization and microeconomic theory, whose work stands out for its combination of theoretical depth, empirical methods, and compelling applications. He has conducted influential research on the economics of contracting, the organization and design of markets, subprime lending, and on empirical methods for studying imperfect competition. His research is methodologically broad, and often combines a sophisticated grasp of economic theory with careful empirical analysis. He has been a leader both in developing new methods in industrial organization and microeconomic theory, and in producing path-breaking applied research.
2010: Esther Duflo(发展经济学)，AER主编
Duflo has distinguished herself through definitive contributions to the field of Development Economics. Through her research, mentoring of young scholars, and role in helping to direct the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab at MIT, she has played a major role in setting a new agenda for the field of Development Economics, one that focuses on microeconomic issues and relies heavily on large-scale field experiments. Much of her work addresses questions of politics, gender, and education. She has written extensively on India, but has also studied Indonesia, Cote d'Ivoire, South Africa, and Kenya. This bio summarizes some of the highlights of her research.
2009: Emmanuel Saez(公共经济学)，西班牙裔
Emmanuel Saez has distinguished himself through definitive contributions to the field of Public Economics. His work attacks policy questions from both theoretical and empirical perspectives, on the one hand refining the theory in ways that link the characteristics of optimal policy to measurable aspects of the economy and of behavior, while on the other hand undertaking careful and creative empirical studies designed to fill the gaps in measurement identified by the theory. Through a collection of interrelated papers, he has brought the theory of taxation closer to practical policy making, and has helped to lead a resurgence of academic interest in taxation.
2007: Susan C. Athey(把机器学习中的计量经济学带起来了)
Susan Athey is an applied theorist who has made important contributions to economic theory, empirical economics, and econometrics. She has built a research program strongly focused on using theory to understand substantive economic issues, especially in industrial organization. She has developed tools and techniques that provide the basis for empirical work strongly grounded in sound economic theory. She has made particularly important advances in developing and applying tools that replace strong functional form assumptions in models with more plausible conditions such as monotonicity, thereby facilitating the development of more robust empirical results.
2005: Daron Acemoglu(涉猎太广泛的大神)，土耳其裔
Acemoglu is an extremely broad and productive economist. He has made valuable contributions to several distinct fields, starting with labor economics, and successively moving to macroeconomics, institutional economics, and political economy. His most recent work on the role of institutions in development and in political economy is especially innovative, and has already had a large impact on research in these areas. Although Acemoglu is primarily a theorist, his work is always motivated by real-world questions that arise when facts are difficult to reconcile with existing theory.
2003: Steven Levitt(包括犯罪经济学)
Steven Levitt is a first-rate empirical researcher whose interests span many social sciences – economics, politics, sociology, and law. His innovative empirical investigations have examined the causes of crime, and the potency of methods of deterrence. His novel identification strategies have made possible a better understanding of fundamental and longstanding puzzles.
2001: Matthew Rabin(行为、心理经济学)
Matthew Rabin is an outstanding and strikingly original theorist who has enriched economics by rigorously incorporating well-documented psychological evidence about human behavior into economic models. Rabin is best known for his formal modeling of choice and equilibrium when individual preferences and decisions systematically violate conventional economic assumptions, as observed in experimental settings by psychologists and others. Rabin's contributions have a remarkably wide range of application, including fundamental work on fairness, inter-temporal choice, self-serving biases, and self-control. His work throws light on central economic questions concerning employee/employer relations, addiction, insurance markets, asset prices, and savings behavior.
1999: Andrei Shleifer(公司金融)
Andrei Shleifer is a superb economist, working in the old Chicago tradition of building simple models, emphasizing basic economic mechanisms, and carefully looking at the evidence. He has made major contributions to corporate finance (corporate govermance), the economics of financial markets (deviations from efficient markets), and the economics of transition. In each case, his contributions have shaped the basic paradigm and triggered considerable follow-up research.
1997: Kevin M. Murphy(劳动经济学)
Kevin Murphy is a brilliant economst whose skills span the full range of the discipline. He is a superb data analyst and economettician who has provided a definitive description of fundamental labor-market phenomena such as wage differentials and patterns of unemployment. While his research is motivated by concrete economic problems and directed at understanding empirical issues, he is a gifted and original theorist. His work on economic growth reveals a penetrating intuition and a deep understanding of the mathematical structure of economics. He has been awarded the John Bates Clark Medal in recognition of his wide-ranging contributions to economics.
1995: David Card(劳动经济学)
David Card has largely defined and developed the currently dominant methodology in applied labor economics. This approach sets out a testable hypothesis, searches for exogenous variation in the key determinants, and leads to the laborand time-intensive development of an appropriate data base. He has successfully applied this methodology to the most important issues in labor economics, and his research papers have achieved the status of standard references in many areas.
1993: Lawrence H. Summers(除了用开挂还能用什么形容，既能做官又能当校长关键是学术还那么好)
Lawrence Summers has published over one hundred research papers. Although this extraordinarily rich and varied body of work is concentrated in four principal areas-public economics, macroeconomics, financial economics, and labor economics-his influence has permeated all areas of applied economics. The hallmark of Summers's research is the skillful development of new and persuasive empirical evidence that successfully distinguishes among competing explanations of significant aspects of economic behavior.
1991: Paul R. Krugman(国际经济学，诺奖得主)
Although Paul Krugman remains young enough to be awarded the Clark Medal, he already is widely regarded as one of the most distinguished members of the economics profession. Krugman is the outstanding international economist among his generation and has played a leading role in virtually every important development in international economics during the past decade, making path-breaking contributions to the "nonmonetary" theory of international trade and, in the study of open-economy macroeconomics, to the analysis of the determinants of exchange-rate movements. While in its sheer volume Paul Krugman's scholarly output has been nothing short of phenomenal, the quality of the individual papers and their impact has been still more impressive. If he has not been the sole contributor to the major reorientations with which his name is associated in our thinking about international economics, and about economics more generally, it must be acknowledged that in remarkably many instances he was first and most influential.
1989: David M. Kreps(金融、微观方面的博弈)
David Kreps's contributions to economic research are nothing short of pathbreaking. This is evident in finance, where his work on arbitrage pricing is especially noteworthy, and in his modeling of rational expectations equilibria. Also important are Kreps's extensions of utility theory to dynamic contexts (temporal resolution of uncertainty), induced preferences, and flexibility. Especially and insistently, however, he has made pioneering contributions to dynamic game theory. Kreps's research goes to core issues. Rather than finesse "complicated" behavioral attributes of human actors by employing behavioral assumptions that are accommodated by state-of-the-art apparatus, Kreps insists that the complications be faced instead. Issues of learning, reputation, culture, unforeseeability, and the like that were once believed to be beyond reach are brought within the ambit. Kreps combines keen intuition, deep curiosity, and extraordinary skills of modeling and exposition. Innovative and tractable new models are his trademark. The added breadth and depth of his contributions have brought new life to and renewed excitement in the study of economics.
1987: Sanford J. Grossman(信息经济学)
Sanford Grossman's research has had a profound influence on the pure theory of markets as well as on financial economics, aspects of labor economics, and industrial organization. His work is unified by a concern with the economics of information and the efficiency tradeoffs that are attributable to conditions of uncertainty and information asymmetry. His early contributions demonstrated the fundamental tension between the social benefits of displaying the value of information through market prices and the private costs of traders in collecting costly information. An examination of labor market contracting revealed that unemployment may be an unavoidable result of the impossibility of conditioning wages on state realizations. His research (much of it in collaboration with Oliver Hart) has brought new insights into the relations between corporate financial structure and managerial incentives and the market for corporate control (takeover). More recent work on incentives, information asymmetries, and noncontractibility has opened up an entirely new area of research on incomplete contracting. Grossman's research is everywhere marked by keen economic intuition and the use and development of rigorous modeling techniques to study the leading information economics/complex contracting problems of the day.
1985: Jerry A. Hausman(Hausman检验)
Jerry Hausman is an extraordinary applied econometrician. His innovative use of econometric methods and economic theory in public finance, labor economics, and energy has changed empirical work in these fields. He has developed techniques that are now in the toolbox of every applied economist: Tests for the exogenicity of right-hand side variables in a regression, exact welfare calculations from econometric demand functions, and the treatment of nonlinear budget constraints arising from income tax and income maintenance programs. His empirical findings are provocative and illuminating. He has challenged conventional wisdom on the incidence of taxes on labor supply and on savings and investment decisions. His finding of high discount rates in consumer appliance purchase decisions has forced a reevaluation of the economic effects of mandatory efficiency standards. His interweaving of economic theory and statistics to form powerful tools for analysis of economic problems is an example to us all.
1983: James J. Heckman(Heckman样本选择偏差，二步法)
James Heckman's research has changed the face of labor economics, econometrics, and demography. His work on panel data and selection problems has set the standard for analysis of microeconomic crosssection, time-series data. His treatment of dynamic models, clarifying the observable implications of heterogeneity and state dependence, has advanced our understanding of economic phenomena regarding durations, particularly the duration of unemployment. The technique he originally proposed for handling the selection problem in analyzing wage rates of women, adding an estimated hazard rate term to compensate for the nonzero conditional mean of the disturbance in the selected data, has become so universal that econometrics students are routinely taught how to "heckit" regression equations. His recent work on nonparametric problems associated with the analysis of longitudinal data is on the frontier of statistics, and has deep implications for econometrics. His innovations promise to be of lasting importance in economics and across the social sciences.
后面的就不再一一介绍，因为一半以上都是诺贝尔经济学奖获得者。
1981: A. Michael Spence
1979: Joseph E. Stiglitz
1977: Martin S. Feldstein
1975: Daniel McFadden
1973: Franklin M. Fisher
1971: Dale W. Jorgenson
1969: Marc Leon Nerlove
1967: Gary S. Becker
1965: Zvi Griliches
1963: Hendrik S. Houthakker
1961: Robert M. Solow
1959: Lawrence R. Klein
1957: Kenneth J. Arrow
1955: James Tobin
1953: No Award
1951: Milton Friedman
1949: Kenneth E. Boulding
1947: Paul A. Samuelson
可以具体查看，可以到社群交流探讨：https://www.aeaweb.org/news/press-release-awards-2019
2年，计量经济圈公众号近1000篇文章，
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