【目录】《中国与世界经济》（China & World Economy）2019年第4期
China & World Economy / 1–28, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2019
Nonlinear Capital Flow Tax: Capital FlowManagement and Financial Crisis Prevention in China
Jiandong Ju, Li Li, Guangyu Nie, Kang Shi,Shang-Jin Wei
Abstract
How to promote capital account liberalization while preventing financial crises is a challenging task for policymakers. This study proposes a nonlinear (progressive) capital flow tax as a solution. Wefirst demonstrate that the collateral requirement of international borrowing can give rise to multiple equilibria and self-fulfilling financial crises. Wethen show that the crisis equilibrium characterized by large exchange rate depreciation, capital flight and welfare loss can be eliminated by imposing anonlinear (progressive) tax scheme on capital outflows with the marginal taxrate increasing with the size of individual capital outflows. The implementation of such a tax scheme in China is also discussed.
Key words: capital account openness,financial crisis, nonlinear capital flow tax
JEL codes: F34, F41, H21
China & World Economy / 29–52, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2019
Motivations for Loan Herding by ChineseBanks and Its Impact on Bank Performance
Hao Fang, Yen-Hsien Lee, Chung-Hua Shen,Chien-Ping Chung
Abstract
This study uses a dynamic herding model that considers intertemporal and crosssectional correlation to confirm that loan herding occurs among joint-stock commercial banks (JSCBs) and citycommercial banks (CCBs). We clarify the motivations for bank loan herding. Wefind that loan herding by both JSCBs and CCBs results more from following the behavior of other same-type banks than different-type banks because of characteristic herding or reputational concerns. Loan herding by JSCBs ismotivated by investigative herding, whereas loan herding by CCBs results from informational cascades. Moreover, loan herding has a significantly harmfulimpact on the operating performance of CCBs but not JSCBs, which may beexplained by the irrational behavior of CCBs. Our results will help Chinese bank supervisors develop appropriate policies for handling loan herding.
Key words: financial crisis, irrationalherding, loan herding
JEL codes: G2, G4
China & World Economy / 53–73, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2019
Fiscal Subsidy Policy on Home Appliances:Its Effects on Domestic Consumption and Exports in China
Ting Ji, Ningyuan Jia, Faqin Lin, Hang Wu
Abstract
This paper evaluates the effects of the Home Appliances Going to the Countryside (HAGC) policy, a fiscal subsidy program implemented in China to boost private consumption of home appliances inrural areas from 2007 to 2012. Using the policy as a natural experiment andemploying the difference-in-difference estimator, we find that the policy didnot increase domestic sales of relevant goods as expected; instead, it actually reduced domestic sales and significantly promoted exports. These surprising results are robust across regressions of alternative datasets, more controls,and different regions. We further provide detailed information of undisclosed audit data for a county in Zhejiang province to shed light on the underlying mechanism of such unexpected results, suggesting loopholes in the HAGC and changes in export tax rebate rates.
Key words: difference-in-differenceestimator, fiscal multiplier, home appliances to the countryside
JEL codes: E62, E65, F12, H32
China & World Economy / 74–103, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2019
Misallocation in Chinese Manufacturing andServices: A Variable Markup Approach
Jinfeng Ge, Jie Luo, Yangzhou Yuan
Abstract
Cross-country comparison reveals anunusually small service sector in China. Using firm-level data from China's 2008 economic census, we find two facts that speak to a novel mechanism of misallocation within service and between manufacturing and service sectors. First, compared with the manufacturing sector, there are more stateowned enterprises and fewer entrants in the service sector. Second, markups increase with firm size, and the increase is more dramatic among service firms. We interpret these facts through the lens of a monopolistic competition model with heterogeneous firms and variable markups. A multisector model shows a new channel that translates asymmetric barriers to entry across sectors into sectoral markup differences, which in turn cause sectoral misallocation. Quantitative analysis shows that when reducing entry barriers to service firms to the extent observed for manufacturing firms, the model predicts a 12-percentage-point increase in the service employment share.
Key words: misallocation, sectoralallocation, variable markup
JEL codes: D24, O11, O47
China & World Economy / 104–126, Vol. 27, No. 4, 2019
Regional Competition in China under thePrice Distortion of Construction Land: A Study Based on a Two-regime SpatialDurbin Model
Yongjian Liu, Hong Geng
Abstract
This study examines regional competition in China by considering the spatial correlation and spill over effect of construction land price distortion using a two-regime Spatial Durbin Model to investigate the patterns and trends of the competition between 285 cities in China from 2006 to 2015. The study finds: (i) price distortion of construction land is a common phenomenon but the distortion index generally shows adeclining trend; (ii) regional competition through construction land price distortion shows a weakly intensified pattern, although the competition patterns in the four regions of China varied; and (iii) the intensity of competition between regions was lower during the 12th Five-year Plan compared to the 11th Plan. The intensity of competition between cities was also lowerinside than outside urban agglomerations. These results provide policy implications for remedying the price distortion of construction land and promoting regional coordinated development.
Key words: construction land, pricedistortion, regional competition, spatial Durbin model, two-regime model
JEL codes: C15, Q24
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