基辛格：新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序（中英双语）

作者: 亨利·基辛格（Henry Kissinger）

来源: 原载于2020年4月3日的华尔街日报《Wall Street Journal》

中文翻译：剑桥中国中心

导语

新冠病毒肺炎（COVID-19）席卷全球，世界格局也受到巨大冲击。美国前国务卿基辛格（Henry Kissinger）4月3日在《华尔街日报》刊文称，新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序；新冠病毒以前所未有的规模和猛烈程度向人类发起攻击。新冠病毒对人类健康的影响可能是暂时的，但它所引发的政治和经济动荡可能会对几代人产生影响。各国必须在合作的基础上解决当前的问题，否则将让世界陷入灾难。

Former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has warned of global economic doom that could last for generations if coronavirus isn't beat 

The Coronavirus Pandemic Will ForeverAlter the World Order

新冠病毒大流行将永远改变世界秩序

The surreal atmosphere of the Covid-19 pandemic calls to mind how I felt as a young man in the 84th Infantry Division during the Battle of the Bulge. Now, as in late 1944, there is a sense of inchoate danger, aimed not at any particular person, but striking randomly and with devastation. But there is an important difference between that faraway time and ours. American endurance then was fortified by an ultimate national purpose. Now, in a divided country, efficient and farsighted government is necessary to overcome obstacles unprecedented in magnitude and global scope. Sustaining the public trust is crucial to social solidarity, to the relation of societies with each other, and to international peace and stability.

Covid-19大流行的超现实气氛让我回想起我在突击战役中作为第84步兵师的一个年轻人时的感受。现在，就像当时1944年末一样，有一种危险在发酵，它不针对任何特定的人，而是随机地进行破坏性打击。但是，那个遥远的时代与我们当下的时代存在重要的区别。当时，美国人的坚毅精神因为国家的终极目标而得以强化；现在，在一个分裂的国家，我们需要一个高效率、有远见的政府才能克服这前所未有、破坏巨大、全球规模的挑战。维持公众信任对于社会团结，社会关系以及国际和平与稳定至关重要。

Nations cohere and flourish on the belief that their institutions can foresee calamity, arrest its impact and restore stability. When the Covid-19 pandemic is over, many countries’ institutions will be perceived as having failed. Whether this judgment is objectively fair is irrelevant. The reality is the world will never be the same after the coronavirus. To argue now about the past only makes it harder to do what has to be done.

各国都相信他们本国的机构可以预见灾难，遏制灾难的影响，进而恢复稳定，这个信念使国家能团结一致，蓬勃发展。当Covid-19大流行结束时，许多国家的机构将被评判为“应对不力”。这一判断是否客观公正无关紧要。现实是，冠状病毒之后的世界将永远不一样。现在还争论过去的事情，只会使我们将要做的事情变得更加困难。

The coronavirus has struck with unprecedented scale and ferocity. Its spread is exponential: U.S. cases are doubling every fifth day. At this writing, there is no cure. Medical supplies are insufficient to cope with the widening waves of cases. Intensive-care units are on the verge, and beyond, of being overwhelmed. Testing is inadequate to the task of identifying the extent of infection, much less reversing its spread. A successful vaccine could be 12 to 18 months away.

新冠病毒以前所未有的规模和猛烈程度向人类发起攻击。它的传播是指数级的：美国的确诊病例数每五天就翻一番。在撰写本文时，还没有新型冠状病毒的针对性治疗方法。医疗供应无法应付病毒的加速蔓延，重症监护病房已经到了不堪重负的边缘。检测数量不足以确定感染的程度，更不用说逆转病毒的蔓延。成功的疫苗可能需要12到18个月。

Illustration: By Paolo Calleri

The U.S. administration has done a solid job in avoiding immediate catastrophe. The ultimate test will be whether the virus’s spread can be arrested and then reversed in a manner and at a scale that maintains public confidence in Americans’ ability to govern themselves. The crisis effort, however vast and necessary, must not crowd out the urgent task of launching a parallel enterprise for the transition to the post-coronavirus order.

美国政府在避免疫情失控方面做了很多工作。最终的考验是该病毒的传播是否可以被遏制，然后全面扭转疫情，同时维持公众对美国政府管理能力的信心。抗击疫情，无论多么巨大和必要，都决不能排除同时启动向新冠病毒之后的秩序过渡这一紧迫任务。

Leaders are dealing with the crisis on a largely national basis, but the virus’s society-dissolving effects do not recognize borders. While the assault on human health will—hopefully—be temporary, the political and economic upheaval it has unleashed could last for generations. No country, not even the U.S., can in a purely national effort overcome the virus. Addressing the necessities of the moment must ultimately be coupled with a global collaborative vision and program. If we cannot do both in tandem, we will face the worst of each.

领导人在很大程度上是在国家层面上应对这场危机，但是新冠病毒在社会上的破坏作用并不停留于国界。新冠病毒对人类健康的攻击是暂时的，至少我们希望是，但它所引发的政治和经济动荡可能会对几代人产生影响。没有一个国家，即使是美国，能够仅仅通过一国的努力战胜这种病毒。解决当前的问题，最终必须与全球合作的愿景和计划相结合。如果我们不能同时做这两件事，我们将面临最糟糕的结果—防疫和国际合作的双重失败。

Drawing lessons from the development of the Marshall Plan and the Manhattan Project, the U.S. is obliged to undertake a major effort in three domains. 

美国从马歇尔计划和曼哈顿项目的发展中吸取了教训，美国有义务在三个领域作出重大的努力。

First, shore up global resilience to infectious disease. Triumphs of medical science like the polio vaccine and the eradication of smallpox, or the emerging statistical-technical marvel of medical diagnosis through artificial intelligence, have lulled us into a dangerous complacency. We need to develop new techniques and technologies for infection control and commensurate vaccines across large populations. Cities, states and regions must consistently prepare to protect their people from pandemics through stockpiling, cooperative planning and exploration at the frontiers of science.

首先，增强全球抵御传染病的能力。脊髓灰质炎疫苗和根除天花等医学科学的胜利，或者通过人工智能进行医学诊断的新兴统计技术的突破，使我们陷入了危险的自满情绪。我们需要开发新的传染病防控技术，开发疫苗应用于广泛人群。地方政府也必须一如既往、科学地开展储备、合作计划和探索等准备工作，保护其人民免受流行病之害。

Second, strive to heal the wounds to the world economy. Global leaders have learned important lessons from the 2008 financial crisis. The current economic crisis is more complex: The contraction unleashed by the coronavirus is, in its speed and global scale, unlike anything ever known in history. And necessary public-health measures such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses are contributing to the economic pain. Programs should also seek to ameliorate the effects of impending chaos on the world’s most vulnerable populations.

第二，努力治愈世界经济的创伤。全球领导人都从2008年金融危机中吸取了重要教训。当前的经济危机更为复杂：新冠病毒的传播速度和全球蔓延规模都是史无前例的。社会隔离，关闭学校和企业等必要的公共卫生措施正在加剧经济困境。计划还应该寻求减轻即将到来的混乱对世界上最弱势人群的影响。

Third, safeguard the principles of the liberal world order. The founding legend of modern government is a walled city protected by powerful rulers, sometimes despotic, other times benevolent, yet always strong enough to protect the people from an external enemy. Enlightenment thinkers reframed this concept, arguing that the purpose of the legitimate state is to provide for the fundamental needs of the people: security, order, economic well-being, and justice. Individuals cannot secure these things on their own. The pandemic has prompted an anachronism, a revival of the walled city in an age when prosperity depends on global trade and movement of people.

第三，维护自由世界秩序的原则。美国现代政府的开国传奇是一个由强力统治者保护的围墙城市，统治者有时专横有时仁慈，但始终强有力地保护人民免受外敌的侵害。启蒙思想家重新定义了这一概念，认为合法国家的目的是满足人民的基本需求：安全，秩序，经济福祉和正义。个人无法自己保护这些东西。新冠病毒大流行已经引发了“时代错误”现象，即在这个繁荣取决于全球贸易和人员流动的时代，“围墙城市”思潮的复兴。

The world’s democracies need to defend and sustain their Enlightenment values. A global retreat from balancing power with legitimacy will cause the social contract to disintegrate both domestically and internationally. Yet this millennial issue of legitimacy and power cannot be settled simultaneously with the effort to overcome the Covid-19 plague. Restraint is necessary on all sides—in both domestic politics and international diplomacy. Priorities must be established.

世界上的民主国家需要捍卫和维持其启蒙运动的价值观。全球范围内法制和权力之间平衡的退步将使社会契约在国内和国际上瓦解。然而，这个千禧年的法制和权力的问题无法与新冠病毒防疫同时解决。在国内政治和国际外交中，各方都必须克制。必须确定问题的优先次序。

We went on from the Battle of the Bulge into a world of growing prosperity and enhanced human dignity. Now, we live an epochal period. The historic challenge for leaders is to manage the crisis while building the future. Failure could set the world on fire.

我们从与“膨胀”做战进入了一个日益繁荣和人类尊严不断提升的世界。现在，我们生活在一个划时代的时期。领导人面临着历史性的挑战，那就是在应对危机的同时建设未来。不能做到这一点，将会使世界陷入灾难。

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