此帐号已被封,内容无法查看 此帐号的内容被自由微信解封
文章于 2021年4月18日 被检测为删除。
查看原文
被微信屏蔽
其他

严峻复杂局势下,我们需要一种战略性思维

凭海观潮 2020-08-17


  凭海观潮 长按关注  

孙立平:围而不战:关于当前局势的一点理解。


作者孙立平  来源孙立平社会观察(thslping888)


1、蓬佩奥的冷战演讲,选择在尼克松的故居发表。有何寓意?我们知道尼克松是对中国接触政策的制定者,是中美关系改善的启动者。蓬佩奥在这里发表中美关系转变的宣言,是为了宣告尼克松开始的这个历史性进程的终结?想的太小肚鸡肠了。我觉得这一选择的深层含义,是继承和延续尼克松的一个重要思想:不战而胜。


2、在最近的一个演讲中我强调了这样的一个意思:由于美国在科技、军事、金融等方面占有的优势,他完全可能寻求的是一种并非即刻决战的战略,而是将其变成一种旷日持久的消耗战,即利用上述优势,逼迫你不得不进入它设计好的一个个陷阱;在这样的过程中,不断消耗你的资源和实力,最后在一个较长的时间段里决出胜负。在这个过程中,它几乎不用付出太大的代价,而你则会处处被动,穷于应付。对此,也有人将其称之为超级大国马拉松。


3、不错,最近一段时间,外交上的冲突迅速升级,军事上也变得日益剑拔弩张。美国两艘航母在南海游弋;日本从美国购买100余架F35,并将装备在7艘轻型航母上;台湾全面部署重型反舰导弹,爱国者-3型导弹;美首次公开否认中国南海主张,不承认中国对南海的主权;英国派最大航母配合美国巡航南海;中印边界处于高度紧张状态,印度全国动员备战,连续增兵边界,40余国先进武器装备齐聚印度,帮助印度备战;美要求中国72小时内关闭休斯敦总领馆,特朗普称有可能要关闭更多领馆;美商务部取消香港特殊待遇。有人说,对于中国来说,这已经是四面埋伏,八面楚歌。有人说,现在已经不仅仅是冷战的问题,而是热战的危险。但这里我要问一句,如果这一切都是剑锋另有所指呢?




4、剑锋所指是什么?就是经济,就是一个国家实力的基础。因为今天的中美关系以及世界局势与当年冷战时已经大不一样,这种变化了的情况,使得美国既无需也无法采用当年对苏联的遏制战略。在当年美苏冷战的时候,美国面对的是一个社会主义阵营,而且苏联的军事实力与美国旗鼓相当。而现在,美国面对的,是一个孤独的中国。只要美国有几艘航母游弋在中国的周边,只要其众多的盟友轮流值值班,只要偶尔有个小兄弟挑点事,你就很难将精力集中在国内的经济发展上,甚至要将相当一部分资源用于应对这种严峻的外部局面。而且,在这样的情况下,国际资本怎么敢呆在一个火药桶般的地方?企业和资本会留在一个与母国处于准战争状态的地方?国内资本的信心又从何而来?同时还要看到,中国今天的经济运行已经在很大程度上依赖于全球性的机制,包括科技、金融、网络等等。只要美国在这些方面有所动作,中国经济的正常运行都会出现问题。这叫什么?这就是不战而胜,就是经济问题军事解决。试想一下,如果这种局面持续5年10年,我们的经济会怎么样?我们怎么办?对此,我们一定要有清醒的认识。


5、在5月21日,我写了一篇文章,《现在最大的误区:以战术思维对战略思维》。我在这篇文章中强调,如何用战略思维正确地解读和应对当前的局面,是至关重要的。但我们现在看到的却是一种相反的情景。很多人,把对方的一个个动作都看作是决战的姿态,都是假定中美之间的对抗甚至军事对决就是迫在眉睫的事情,然后以此为基础设想出种种的应对方案。从贸易战的不能认怂,要打一场诗史性的贸易战,到要造1000个核弹头,都是这种思维的表现,摆出的都是一种针尖对麦芒的决战姿态。其实,这既低估了对方的战略水准,也拉低了自己在战略层面进行思维的能力。这是一种典型的用战术性思维替代战略性思维的表现,最后的结果是把自己带到沟里去。



6、所以,我再次强调,在面对目前这种严峻而复杂的局势的情况下,我们需要一种战略性思维。中国需要做的不是应对,而是破解。在战术的层面上应对得越正确越有力,在战略层面上的损失可能就越大,就越被动。应对是就事论事,是在特定问题上争高低,而破解则是以一种更高的立意从这种困境中走出来,摆脱这种两难的逻辑,争取更开阔的前景。这让我想起改革开放初期的情景。当时中国面对的局面也是很被动的。但在当时的情况下,我们的选择不是去应对所谓的挑战,而是另辟蹊径,以改革开放,化解困局,不但化险为夷,而且赢得几十年快速的经济发展。历史可以给我们有益的启示。



50. All you can do is to try your best. Even with those small steps, you're closer to your goal than you were yesterday. 我们能做的只是拼尽全力,即使迈出的步子再小,也比昨天要更接近自己的目标。51. A smile is the shortest distance between two people. 微笑是人与人之间最短的距离。52. Do or do not. There is no try. 要么做,要么滚!没有试试看这一说。53. Courage is being afraid but going on anyhow. 勇气就是虽感恐惧,但仍会前行。54. A man can be destroyed but not defeated. 人可以被毁灭,但不可以被打败。55. A truly happy person is one who can enjoy the scenery while on a detour. 真正快乐的人是那种在走弯路时也不忘享受风景的人。56. No dream is too big, and no dreamer is too small. 梦想再大也不嫌大,追梦的人再小也不嫌小。57. It doesn't matter how many times you fail. What matters is how many times you stand up and try again. 失败多少次不重要,重要的是你能重新站起来多少次,并且继续前行。58. Silence is the most powerful cry. 沉默是最有力的呐喊。《美丽人生》 59. A little consideration, a little thought for others makes all the difference. 一点点体贴,一点点为他人着想,会让一切都不一样。60. Stop waiting for things to happen.Go out and make them happen. 别指望事情会自然发生,行动起来,让它们变成可能!61. Don't look forward to tomorrow, don't miss yesterday, to grasp today. 不憧憬明天,不留念昨天,只把握今天。62. Now we don't call it alive. It's just not to die. 我们现在不叫活着,这只是没有死去。《疯狂原始人》 63. You can change your life if you want to. Sometimes you have to be hard on yourself, but you can change it completely. 有志者事竟成。有时虽劳其筋骨,但命运可以彻底改变。《唐顿庄园》 64. Time will bring a surprise, if you believe. 时间会带来惊喜,如果你相信的话。《浮生物语》 65. What others think is not important . How you feel about yourself is all that matters. 别人怎么想并不重要,你怎么看自己才是关键。66. Don't cry because it is over,smile because it happened. 不要因为结束而哭泣,微笑吧,因为你曾经拥有。67. Tomorrow is never clear. Our time is here. 明天是未知的,我们还是享受此刻吧!《摇滚夏令营》 68. Life is either a daring adventure or nothing at all. 生活要么大胆尝试,要么什么都不是。69. Pursue excellence and success will follow. 追求卓越,成功自然来。《三傻大闹宝莱坞》 70. Climb mountains not so the world can see you, but so you can see the world. 爬上山顶并不是为了让全世界看到你,而是让你看到整个世界。71. Every step towards your dream today is a step away from your regret tomorrow. 今日为梦想所付出的每一份努力都会减少明日的一份后悔。72. It's never too late to be what you might have been. 勇敢做自己,永远都不迟。(乔治·艾略特) 73. It's time to start living the life you've imagined. 是时候开始过自己想要的生活了!95. How can men succumb to force? 男人怎么能屈服于“武力”之下?《海贼王》 96. Life is like live TV show. There is no rehearsal. 人生没有彩排,只有现场直播。97. Dress shabbily and they remember the dress; dress impeccably and they remember the woman. 穿着破旧,人们记住衣服;穿着无瑕,人们则记住衣服里的女人。(Coco Chanel) 98. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies. 希望是一件好事,也许是人间至善,而美好的事永不消逝。《肖申克的救赎》 99. There are so many beautiful reasons to be happy. 有太多太多美好的理由让你笑对生活。100. Where the more different you are, the better. 你们之间越是不同,越好。(Glee) 101. I'm only brave when I have to be. Being brave doesn't mean you go looking for trouble. 我只在必要时才勇敢,勇敢并不代表你要到处闯祸。《狮子王》 102. Behind every successful man there's a lot of unsuccessful years. 每个牛B的成功者都经历过苦B的岁月。(鲍博.布朗) 103. If you want something done, do it yourself. 靠谁都不如靠自己。《第五元素》 104. Life is a wonderful journey. Make it your journey and not someone else's. 生命是一段精彩旅程,要活的有自己的样子,而不是别人的影子。105. No matter how many mistakes you make or how slowly you progress, you are already ahead of those who never tried. 无论你犯了多少错,或者进步得有多慢,你都走在了那些不曾尝试的人的前面。106. Some things are so important that they force us to overcome our fears. 总有些更重要的事情,赋予我们打败恐惧的勇气。107. Say to yourself: "No matter how many obstacles I encounter in life, I will do all that I can to complete the whole course." 请对自己说:无论生活之路上会遇到多少障碍,我会竭尽所能地跑完这一程。108. No cross, no crown. 不经历风雨,怎么见彩虹。109. Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value. 与其努力成功,不如努力成为有价值的人。(爱因斯坦) 110. Remember when life's path is steep to keep your mind even. 记住:当人生很苦逼的时候,你要保持淡定。111. If you're brave enough to say GOODBYE, life will reward you with a new HELLO. 只要你勇敢地说出再见,生活一定会给你一个新的开始。112. Sometimes the right path is not the easiest one. 对的那条路,往往不是最好走的。113. Just trust yourself, then you will know how to live. 只要相信自己,你就会懂得如何去生活。114. In life it's not where you go. It's who you travel with. 生命中,重要的不是你去哪里,而是与谁同行。115. Life is like a rainbow. You don't always know what's on the other side, but you know it's there. 生活像一道彩虹,你不知道另一端通向哪里,但你会知道,它总是在那里。116. When the world says,"Give up!"Hope whispers,"Try it one more time." 当全世界都在说“放弃”的时候,希望却在耳边轻轻地说:“再试一次吧”!117. I don't care about other questions and I just try to be myself. 我不在乎别人的质疑,我只会做好自己。118. Attempt doesn't necessarily bring success, but giving up definitely leads to failure. 努力不一定成功,但放弃一定失败!119. The best preparation for tomorrow is doing your best today. 对明天最好的准备就是今天做到最好。120. You are already naked. There is no reason not to follow your heart. 你已经一无所有,没有什么道理不顺心而为。(乔布斯) 121. Life is a journey, one that is much better traveled with a companion by our side. 人生是一场旅程,我们最好结伴同行。122. Sometimes you have to fall before you can fly. 有时候,你得先跌下去,才能飞起来。123. If you are able to appreciate beauty in the ordinary, your life will be more vibrant. 如果你擅于欣赏平凡中的美好,你的生活会更加多姿多彩。124. Be who you are, and never ever apologize for that! 坚持做自己,并永远不要为此而后悔!125. Consider the bad times as down payment for the good times. Hang in there. 把苦日子当做好日子的首付,坚持就是胜利!126. Do not pray for easy lives, pray to be stronger. 与其祈求生活平淡点,还不如祈求自己强大点。127. Everybody can fly without wings when they hold on to their dreams. 坚持自己的梦想,即使没有翅膀也能飞翔。128. There is no such thing as a great talent without great will power. 没有伟大的意志力,便没有雄才大略。129. You can't change your situation. The only thing that you can change is how you choose to deal with it. 境遇难以改变,你能改变的唯有面对它时的态度。130. Whatever is worth doing at all is worth doing well. 凡是值得做的事,就值得做好。131. Perfection is not just about control.It's also about letting go. 完美不仅在于控制,也在于释放。《黑天鹅》 132. Dream is what makes you happy, even when you are just trying. 梦想就是一种让你感到坚持就是幸福的东西。133. Never frown,because you never know who is falling in love with your smile. 别愁眉不展,因为你不知道谁会爱上你的笑容。134. It's easy once you know how. 一旦你明白,就会很简单。135. In order to be irreplaceable, one must always be different. 要做到不可替代,就要与众不同。136. I honestly think it is better to be a failure at something you love than to be a success at something you hate. 宁愿失败地做你爱做的事情,也不要成功地做你恨做的事情。(George Burns) 137. Don't hide. Run! You'll make it to tomorrow. 别躲避,奔跑吧,你就会找到明天。138. Life comes with many challenges.The ones that should not scare us are the ones we can take on and take control of. 生活充满了挑战,唯有勇敢面对并自我掌控,我们才能克服恐惧。(安吉丽娜·朱莉) 139. Life doesn't just happen to you; you receive everything in your life based on what you've given. 一切发生在你身上的都不是碰巧。你获得什么,在于你付出了什么。140.You are more beautiful than you think. 你,要比你想象的更美丽。141. Throughout life's complications, you should maintain such a sense of elegance. 不管生活有多不容易,你都要守住自己的那一份优雅。142. When you feel like giving up, remember why you held on so long in the first place. 每当你想要放弃的时候,就想想是为了什么才一路坚持到现在。143. Enjoy your youth.You'll never be younger than you are at this very moment. 好好享受青春,你再也不会有哪个时刻会比此时更年轻了。144. You'd better bring, cause I'll bring every I've got it. 你最好全神贯注,因为我定会全力以赴!145. Take time to enjoy the simple things in life. 慢慢享受生活中的简单。146. As long as you are still alive, you will definitely encounter the good things in life. 只要活着就一定会遇上好事。147. Hold on, it gets better than you know. 挺住,事情会比你想像中要好!148. If you are fine,the sun will always shine. 你若安好,便是晴天。149. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger. 磨难会让你更强大。150. Every life deserves our respect. 每一个生命都应该被尊重。151. The best feeling in the world is when you know your heart is smiling. 世间最美好的感受,就是发现自己的心在笑。152. Don't ever underestimate the heart of a champion. 永远不要低估一颗冠军的心。(Rudy Tomjanovich) 153. There is nothing permanent except change. 唯一不变的是变化。154. The difference between successful persons and others is that they really act. 成功者和其他人最大的区别就是,他们真正动手去做了。155. Don't follow the crowd, let the crowd follow you. 不要随波逐流,要引领潮流。(Margaret Thatcher) 156. People pay in advance for a coffee meant for someone who cannot afford a warm beverage. 人们提前买咖啡,让付不起的人享受温暖。157. No one is born a genius.Just keep on doing what you like and that itself is a talent. 哪有什么天才!坚持做你喜欢的事情,这本身就是一种天赋。(大野智) 158. The world is a book, and those who do not travel read only one page. 世界是一本书,不旅行的人只读了其中一页。159. You can create something more glorious than the championship. 你可以创造比冠军更荣耀的事。160. You never get a second chance to make a first impression. 永远没有第二次机会,给人留下第一印象。161. You can always be a worse version of "him", or better version of yourself. 你不是要做一个单纯优秀的人,而是要做一个不可替代的人。162. Give every day the chance to become the most beautiful day of your life. 让每一天都有机会成为你人生中最美好的一天。163. Honesty is the best policy. 做人以诚信为本。164. To a crazy ship all winds are contrary. 对于一只漫无目标的船而言,任何方向的风都是逆风。165. The outer world you see is a reflection of your inner self. 你看到什么样的世界,你就拥有什么样的内心。166. Strike while the iron is hot. 趁热打铁。167. Knowing what you cannot do is far more important than knowing what you are capable of. 知道自己不能做什么远比知道自己能做什么重要。168. People cry, not because they're weak. It's because they've been strong for too long. 哭泣,不代表脆弱,只因坚强了太久。169. Don't let yesterday use up too much of today. 别留念昨天了,把握好今天吧。(Will Rogers) 170. If you are not brave enough, no one will back you up. 你不勇敢,没人替你坚强。171. If you don't build your dream, someone will hire you to build theirs. 如果你没有梦想,那么你只能为别人的梦想打工。172. Beauty is all around, if you just open your heart to see. 只要你给自己机会,你会发现你的世界可以很美丽。173. The difference in winning and losing is most often...not quitting. 赢与输的差别通常是--不放弃。(华特·迪士尼) 174. I am ordinary yet unique. 我很平凡,但我独一无二。175. I like people who make me laugh in spite of myself. 我喜欢那些让我笑起来的人,就算是我不想笑的时候。176. Image a new story for your life and start living it. 为你的生命想一个全新剧本,并去倾情出演吧!177. I'd rather be a happy fool than a sad sage. 做个悲伤的智者,不如做个开心的傻子。178. The future belongs to those who believe in the beauty of their dreams. 未来属于那些相信梦想之美的人。(埃莉诺·罗斯福) 179. Even if you get no applause, you should accept a curtain call gracefully and appreciate your own efforts. 即使没有人为你鼓掌,也要优雅的谢幕,感谢自己的认真付出。180. Don't let dream just be your dream. 别让梦想只停留在梦里。181. A day without laughter is a day wasted. 没有笑声的一天是浪费了的一天。(卓别林) 182. Travel and see the world; afterwards, you will be able to put your concerns in perspective. 去旅行吧,见的世面多了,你会发现原来在意的那些结根本算不了什么。183. The key to acquiring proficiency in any task is repetition. 任何事情成功关键都是熟能生巧。《生活大爆炸》 184. You can be happy no matter what. 开心一点吧,管它会怎样。185. A good plan today is better than a perfect plan tomorrow. 今天的好计划胜过明天的完美计划。186. Nothing is impossible, the word itself says 'I'm possible'! 一切皆有可能!“不可能”的意思是:“不,可能。”(奥黛丽·赫本) 187. Life isn't fair, but no matter your circumstances, you have to give it your all. 生活是不公平的,不管你的境遇如何,你只能全力以赴。188. No matter how hard it is, just keep going because you only fail when you give up. 无论多么艰难,都要继续前进,因为只有你放弃的那一刻,你才输了。189. It requires hard work to give off an appearance of effortlessness. 你必须十分努力,才能看起来毫不费力。190. Life is like riding a bicycle.To keep your balance,you must keep moving. 人生就像骑单车,只有不断前进,才能保持平衡。(爱因斯坦) 191. Be thankful for what you have.You'll end up having more. 拥有一颗感恩的心,最终你会得到更多。192. Beauty is how you feel inside, and it reflects in your eyes. 美是一种内心的感觉,并反映在你的眼睛里。(索菲亚·罗兰) 193. Friendship doubles your joys, and divides your sorrows. 朋友的作用,就是让你快乐加倍,痛苦减半。194. When you long for something sincerely, the whole world will help you. 当你真心渴望某样东西时,整个宇宙都会来帮忙。     When Paul Jobs was mustered out of the Coast Guard after World War II, he made a wager with his crewmates. They had arrived in San Francisco, where their ship was decommissioned, and Paul bet that he would find himself a wife within two weeks. He was a taut, tattooed engine mechanic, six feet tall, with a passing resemblance to James Dean. But it wasn’t his looks that got him a date with Clara Hagopian, a sweet-humored daughter of Armenian immigrants. It was the fact that he and his friends had a car, unlike the group she had originally planned to go out with that evening. Ten days later, in March 1946, Paul got engaged to Clara and won his wager. It would turn out to be a happy marriage, one that lasted until death parted them more than forty years later. Paul Reinhold Jobs had been raised on a dairy farm in Germantown, Wisconsin. Even though his father was an alcoholic and sometimes abusive, Paul ended up with a gentle and calm disposition under his leathery exterior. After dropping out of high school, he wandered through the Midwest picking up work as a mechanic until, at age nineteen, he joined the Coast Guard, even though he didn’t know how to swim. He was deployed on the USS General M. C. Meigs and spent much of the war ferrying troops to Italy for General Patton. His talent as a machinist and fireman earned him commendations, but he occasionally found himself in minor trouble and never rose above the rank of seaman. Clara was born in New Jersey, where her parents had landed after fleeing the Turks in Armenia, and they moved to the Mission District of San Francisco when she was a child. She had a secret that she rarely mentioned to anyone: She had been married before, but her husband had been killed in the war. So when she met Paul Jobs on that first date, she was primed to start a new life. Like many who lived through the war, they had experienced enough excitement that, when it was over, they desired simply to settle down, raise a family, and lead a less eventful life. They had little money, so they moved to Wisconsin and lived with Paul’s parents for a few years, then headed for Indiana, where he got a job as a machinist for International Harvester. His passion was tinkering with old cars, and he made money in his spare time buying, restoring, and selling them. Eventually he quit his day job to become a full-time used car salesman. Clara, however, loved San Francisco, and in 1952 she convinced her husband to move back there. They got an apartment in the Sunset District facing the Pacific, just south of Golden Gate Park, and he took a job working for a finance company as a “repo man,” picking the locks of cars whose owners hadn’t paid their loans and repossessing them. He also bought, repaired, and sold some of the cars, making a decent enough living in the process. There was, however, something missing in their lives. They wanted children, but Clara had suffered an ectopic pregnancy, in which the fertilized egg was implanted in a fallopian tube rather than the uterus, and she had been unable to have any. So by 1955, after nine years of marriage, they were looking to adopt a child. Like Paul Jobs, Joanne Schieble was from a rural Wisconsin family of German heritage. Her father, Arthur Schieble, had immigrated to the outskirts of Green Bay, where he and his wife owned a mink farm and dabbled successfully in various other businesses, including real estate and photoengraving. He was very strict, especially regarding his daughter’s relationships, and he had strongly disapproved of her first love, an artist who was not a Catholic. Thus it was no surprise that he threatened to cut Joanne off completely when, as a graduate student at the University of Wisconsin, she fell in love with Abdulfattah “John” Jandali, a Muslim teaching assistant from Syria. Jandali was the youngest of nine children in a prominent Syrian family. His father owned oil refineries and multiple other businesses, with large holdings in Damascus and Homs, and at one point pretty much controlled the price of wheat in the region. His mother, he later said, was a “traditional Muslim woman” who was a “conservative, obedient housewife.” Like the Schieble family, the Jandalis put a premium on education. Abdulfattah was sent to a Jesuit boarding school, even though he was Muslim, and he got an undergraduate degree at the American University in Beirut before entering the University of Wisconsin to pursue a doctoral degree in political science. In the summer of 1954, Joanne went with Abdulfattah to Syria. They spent two months in Homs, where she learned from his family to cook Syrian dishes. When they returned to Wisconsin she discovered that she was pregnant. They were both twenty-three, but they decided not to get married. Her father was dying at the time, and he had threatened to disown her if she wed Abdulfattah. Nor was abortion an easy option in a small Catholic community. So in early 1955, Joanne traveled to San Francisco, where she was taken into the care of a kindly doctor who sheltered unwed mothers, delivered their babies, and quietly arranged closed adoptions. Joanne had one requirement: Her child must be adopted by college graduates. So the doctor arranged for the baby to be placed with a lawyer and his wife. But when a boy was born—on February 24, 1955—the designated couple decided that they wanted a girl and backed out. Thus it was that the boy became the son not of a lawyer but of a high school dropout with a passion for mechanics and his salt-of-the-earth wife who was working as a bookkeeper. Paul and Clara named their new baby Steven Paul Jobs. When Joanne found out that her baby had been placed with a couple who had not even graduated from high school, she refused to sign the adoption papers. The standoff lasted weeks, even after the baby had settled into the Jobs household. Eventually Joanne relented, with the stipulation that the couple promise—indeed sign a pledge—to fund a savings account to pay for the boy’s college education. There was another reason that Joanne was balky about signing the adoption papers. Her father was about to die, and she planned to marry Jandali soon after. She held out hope, she would later来源:小兵说天下

延伸阅读


这几年的中美关系,专家们没少帮倒忙
中美相互关馆,让我想起这段珍贵的历史……
突发!美国悍然要求中国关闭驻休斯敦总领馆,中方强烈谴责
中美最强暗战……
哪里是冷战,分明欲群殴
突发:美国议员建议特朗普为台开战!
实力悬殊,请勿乱言战争!
美英联手针对华为,外交部这样回应
突发!英国决定禁用华为!华为回应
特朗普:停止“富布莱特计划”,关闭中美大门!
美国迄今最疯狂的对华计划:禁止所有中共党员和家属赴美
华春莹再谈美国欲对中共党员及家属实施限制

做号不易,打赏随意

赞赏

真心感谢每位打赏的朋友
商务合作请加微信2150111或加qq2150111

 

戳戳戳!分享·点赞·在看都是支持

    您可能也对以下帖子感兴趣

    文章有问题?点此查看未经处理的缓存