《World Development》| Acosta et al：应对气候冲击:牲畜投资组合的复杂作用

 摘要：气候变化的影响令人担忧，预测表明，气候事件将变得更加极端和频繁，影响本已高度脆弱地区的家庭生计。本研究探讨了家畜作为家庭应对气候冲击的策略的作用。利用分位数回归方法，我们考察了不同动物物种缓冲干旱对收入和消费影响的潜力。我们汇集了一个独特的全球数据集，将家庭层面的社会经济信息与多标量气候干旱指数相结合。我们的研究证实了牲畜组合作为应对干旱对家庭收入和消费影响的缓冲机制的重要作用，但这一作用与环境有关。这种效应是由动物物种的特定类型、冲击的时间长度和社会经济特征驱动的。这些发现有助于设计以畜牧业为导向的政策干预措施。这项研究的新贡献包括首次对牲畜抗旱缓冲效应的跨国分析；利用标准化的降水-蒸散发指数作为多标量干旱指标；还有一个独特的广泛的数据集，可以用来分析相互作用。

关键词：气候冲击；家庭生计；应对策略；弹性；家畜

Abstract:The effects of climate change are alarming, with projections suggesting that weather events will become more extreme and frequent, affecting households in regions that are already highly vulnerable. This study explores the role of livestock as a household coping strategy against climate shocks. Using quantile regression analysis, we examine the potential of different animal species to buffer the effects of drought on income and consumption. We assemble a unique global dataset that combines household-level socioeconomic information with a multi-scalar climatic drought index. Our study confirms the significant, yet context-dependent, role of livestock portfolios as a buffering mechanism against the effects of drought on household income and consumption. The effect is driven by the specific type of animal species, length of the shock, and socioeconomic features. These findings could assist the design of livestock-oriented policy interventions. The novel contributions of this study include the first cross-country analysis of the buffering effect of livestock against drought; use of the standardized precipitation-evapotran spiration index as a multi-scalar drought indicator -; and a uniquely extensive dataset allowing for the analysis of interactions.

Key words:Climate shocks；Household livelihood；Coping strategies；Resilience；Livestock

《World Development》最新影响因子为3.92，该期刊是发展经济学领域的顶级学术期刊，在JCR分区中处于经济学领域一区（Q1），属于经济学影响因子前5%期刊。 

原文链接：

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X21000565?via%3Dihub

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