《JAE》| Ding et al：中国农民对降水上升趋势的时间贴现及其影响

摘要：本文研究了中国葡萄种植者的时间贴现及其对采用可以减少降水增加负面影响的技术的影响。使用在新疆收集的原始数据，我们对保护水果免受雨水侵袭的雨罩进行了或有估值，并使用这些数据估算了贴现效用模型。使用分层贝叶斯方法，我们发现当地葡萄种植者对未来的贴现非常严重，贴现率为每年 0.17，几乎是中国市场利率的四倍。农民还倾向于低估采用覆盖物的好处，他们的购买决定似乎在很大程度上取决于他们过去的实际损失，而不是未来的预期损失。这些发现对促进针对该地区可能增加的降雨进行积极适应的政策具有更广泛的影响。针对那些对未来遥远的事件重视程度较低的农民，了解到许多农民可能只倾向于作出具有强烈短期利益的采纳决定，可以提高针对农业技术的气候政策的效力。

关键词：中国，条件价值，葡萄，层次贝叶斯方法，降雨量增加，技术采纳，时间贴现

Abstract: This paper studies Chinese grape growers’ time discounting and its implications for the adoption of technology that can reduce the negative effects of increasing precipitation. Using primary data collected in Xinjiang Province, we undertook a contingent valuation of rain covers that protect fruit from rain and estimated a discounted utility model using these data. Using a hierarchical Bayesian approach, we find that local grape growers discount the future very heavily, with a discount rate of 0.17 per year, which is almost four times higher than the Chinese market interest rate. Farmers also tend to underestimate the benefits of adopting covers, with their purchase decisions appearing to largely depend on their past actual losses rather than future anticipated losses. These findings have broader implications for policies promoting proactive adaptation in response to likely increased rainfall in the region. Targeting farmers who give lower weight to events far off in the future and understanding that many farmers may tend only to make adoption decisions that have strong short-term benefits could improve the efficacy of climate policies that target agricultural technologies.

Key words: China, contingent valuation, grape, hierarchical Bayesian approach, increased rainfall, technology adoption, time discounting.

《Journal of agricultural economics》，最新影响因子为2.529，主要发表管理科学、农业经济与政策方向文章。

原文链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1477-9552.12434

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