《AE》｜商品作物生产者和特种作物生产者的风险偏好：前景理论的应用
摘要：生产者的决定，例如作物保险、合同协议和技术采用，涉及相当大的风险和不确定性。特别是特种作物生产比商品作物生产更容易受到风险的影响，需要更加集约化的管理，而特种作物生产的风险缓解工具相对有限。我们应用前景理论（PT）来分析美国生产者的风险偏好，并进一步比较商品作物和特种作物生产者之间的偏好差异。研究发现，依赖参考、敏感性递减、损失厌恶和概率加权，以及某些农场特征和生产者人口统计数据，对种植者的风险态度有重大影响。此外，我们没有观察到商品作物和特种作物生产者之间的基本 PT 估计值存在显着差异。然而，风险行为与个体特征之间的关系在两种类型的生产者之间有所不同，这为农业政策的发展提供了启示，并为合同和保险的设计提供了启示。
关键词：商品作物，作物保险，前景理论，特种作物
Abstract: Producers’ decisions, such as crop insurance, contract agreement, and technology adoption, involve considerable risk and uncertainty. Particularly, specialty crop production is more vulnerable to risk and requires more intensive management than commodity crop production, while risk mitigation tools for specialty crop production are comparatively limited. We apply Prospect Theory (PT) to analyze risk preferences of U.S. producers, and further compare the preference differences between commodity crop and specialty crop producers. Reference dependent, diminishing sensitivity, loss aversion, and probability weighting, as well as certain farm characteristics and producer demographics, are found to have a significant impact on grower risk attitudes. In addition, we do not observe significant differences in the base PT estimates between commodity crop and specialty crop producers. However, the relationships between risk behavior and individual characteristics vary between the two types of producers, which shed lights on the development of agricultural policies and provide implications for the design of contract and insurance.
Key words: commodity crop, crop insurance, prospect theory, specialty crop
原文链接：
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/agec.12559
《AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS》（AE），最新影响因子为2.263，刊载方向为农业经济与政策，主题涵盖从消费和营养到土地使用和环境，从农户到市场和宏观经济的各个分析规模。杂志旨在世界各地传播学科最重要的研究结果和政策分析