5月25日俄罗斯与沙特阿拉伯讨论石油增产问题

导 语

椐外媒报道，欧佩克和非欧佩克国家减产协议主要参与者俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯周五表示，他们正在讨论逐步放宽限制措施，以增加市场供应。

增加石油供应的决定可能会在欧佩克6月22日会议上做出，这是上周五原油价格走低的一个背景。沙特能源大臣法利赫和俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克周四晚间在圣彼得堡进行了讨论，但拒绝透露可能会增加多少石油产量。

在认识到“我们正在接近市场再平衡”之后，法利赫表示，为市场增加供应量的“可能性，我可以说，可能会发生在今年下半年”。他强调“增加供应将是一个渐进过程”，以免“以负面的方式打击市场”。

法利赫只是说，“已经研究了不同的数字，其中一些数字正在讨论中，但是在一天结束时，我们必须感受到我们一起合作的24个国家的利益和意见”。他补充说，这指的是参与减产协议的产油国。他指出，“我们将在接下来的几周内与他们进行磋商，我们将考虑放宽现有产量限制的不同情景”。

欧佩克秘书长巴金多指出了持续稳定的必要性。他在圣彼得堡说，“把库存减少到5年平均值只是一个指标，并不一定意味着已经恢复了每个人都作为目标的稳定性”。

［点评］5月24日两大产油国在圣彼得堡的会议引发了国际油价之后连续两日的油价大跌。但是两国石油部长对减少减产幅度的态度是温和的，可见，市场过分夸大了负面作用。

（编译：金联创特约分析师田春荣金联创首席研究员钟健）

俄罗斯与沙特阿拉伯讨论增产问题

美国《国际石油日报》，2018年5月26日

欧佩克和非欧佩克国家减产协议主要参与者俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯周五表示，他们正在讨论逐步放宽限制措施，以增加市场供应。

增加石油供应的决定可能会在欧佩克6月22日会议上做出，这是上周五原油价格走低的一个背景。

沙特能源大臣法利赫和俄罗斯能源部长诺瓦克周四晚间在圣彼得堡进行了讨论，但拒绝透露可能会增加多少石油产量。

在认识到“我们正在接近市场再平衡”之后，法利赫表示，为市场增加供应量的“可能性，我可以说，可能会发生在今年下半年”。他强调“增加供应将是一个渐进过程”，以免“以负面的方式打击市场”。

专家指出，关于增产规模的磋商刚刚开始，就新配额问题很难达成一致。对于委内瑞拉产量下降，法利赫表示，“我们正在非常仔细地观察”，而美国制裁下伊朗产量可能的缩减，已帮助推动布伦特原油价格近期涨到每桶80美元，这引发了对价格高涨的担忧。

消息人士称，沙特阿拉伯支持每天增加30万桶，而俄罗斯寻求增产更多，因为该国石油公司呼吁取消限产。俄罗斯第三大生产商俄罗斯天然气工业石油公司（Gazprom Neft）总经理迪科夫在周五的一个简报会上表示，80-100万桶/日的回升“只会使市场更健康”。

然而，诺瓦克说，在提出一个数字之前需要更多的分析。“我们必须非常仔细地分析所有的数据，并看看基本面”。

法利赫只是说，“已经研究了不同的数字，其中一些数字正在讨论中，但是在一天结束时，我们必须感受到我们一起合作的24个国家的利益和意见”。他补充说，这指的是参与减产协议的产油国。他指出，“我们将在接下来的几周内与他们进行磋商，我们将考虑放宽现有产量限制的不同情景”。

欧佩克秘书长巴金多指出了持续稳定的必要性。他在圣彼得堡说，“把库存减少到5年平均值只是一个指标，并不一定意味着已经恢复了每个人都作为目标的稳定性”。

法拉赫说，事实上，维也纳会议将讨论新的指标和“平衡手段”。他也意识到近期价格飙升对消费国的影响，并指出它们“过去几周上升的焦虑是我们的担忧。”

“除了数量和基本面，我们必须解决心理问题，我们必须意识到消费者，”他说。

欧佩克和俄罗斯决定增加供应的另一个考虑因素是，尽管油价升高，但全球上游投资并没有像传统上表现的那样做出实质性的回应。

至少根据巴金多的说法，美国对油价上涨的担忧似乎也已被考虑在内，他承认4月20日美国总统特朗普的推文称油价过高并未被忽视。

“我们欧佩克总是自豪地与美国做朋友，”巴林多说。他补充说，“油气工业基本上是美国的一个行业，它仍然是我们出口的最大市场，仍然是技术增长的引擎，就投资资本而言，在我们所做的几乎所有决策中不仅考虑到产油国的利益，还考虑到消费国的利益”。

印度也已经公开表示担心油价上涨对其经济的影响。

无论维也纳的决定是什么，法利赫都保证“我们会做正确的事情”，以“确保市场供应充足，消费者的焦虑得到疏解，市场达到平衡”。 

TUE,  MAY 29, 2018

Russia, Saudi Arabia Discuss Output  Increase

Russia  and Saudi Arabia, the key participants in an oil supply cut deal involving  Opec and non-Opec countries, said Friday they are discussing a gradual easing  of restrictions that would put more oil on the market.

A  decision on increasing oil supplies could be made at Opec's Jun. 22 meeting,  a prospect that sent crude prices lower on Friday.

Saudi  Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart Alexander Novak  held discussions Thursday night in St. Petersburg but refused to say by how  much oil production could increase. The group agreed to cut production by 1.8  million barrels per day starting on Jan. 1, 2017, and the deal is not due to  expire until the end of this year.

Having  recognized that "we are close to market rebalancing," al-Falih said  that adding more supply to the market "potentially, and may I say  likely, will happen in the second half of this year." He emphasized  "lifting supplies will be a gradual process" so as not to  "shock the market in a negative way."

Consultations  on the size of the production increase have just started, and it will be  difficult to agree on new quotas, experts note. Declining production in  Venezuela -- which "we are watching very carefully," according to  al-Falih -- and possible reductions in Iran because of US sanctions, have  helped drive benchmark Brent oil prices past $80 per barrel recently, prompting  fears of a price spike.

Sources claim that  Saudi Arabia supports an increase of only 300,000 barrels per day, while  Russia seeks more as its oil companies are calling for the lifting of  restrictions (IOD  May25'18). Alexander Dyukov, general director of  Russia's third-largest producer Gazprom Neft, said at a briefing Friday that  the return of 800,000 b/d-1 million b/d would "only make the market  healthier."

Novak,  however, said more analysis was needed before coming up with a figure.  "We really have to very carefully analyze all the numbers and look at  fundamentals."

Al-Falih  only said that "different numbers have been looked at. Some of these  numbers are being discussed. But at the end of the day, we have to be  sensitive to the interests and the views of 24 countries that we work  with," he added, referring to the participants of the production cut  pact. "We will be consulting with all of them in the next few weeks. We  will be considering different scenarios of easing the production constraints  that are in place," he noted.

Opec  Secretary-General Mohammed Barkindo pointed to the necessity of stability on  a sustainable basis. "Reducing inventories to the five-year average is  just one metric, it doesn't necessarily mean that you have restored the  stability" that everyone was targeting, he said in St. Petersburg.

Indeed,  the meeting in Vienna will discuss new metrics and "what balance  means," according to al-Falih. He is also cognizant of the recent price  surge's impact on consumers, noting that their "anxiety level that has  escalated over the last few weeks is a concern for us."

"In  addition to the volumes and the fundamentals, we have to address psychology,  we have to be conscious of consumers," he said.

Another  consideration for Opec and Russia in making the decision to add supply is  that global upstream investment, despite higher prices, has not responded in  kind as it traditionally has.

US concerns about  rising oil prices also appear to have been taken into consideration, at least  according to Barkindo, who confessed that the tweet of US President Donald  Trump on Apr. 20 saying that prices were too high did not go unnoticed (IOD Apr.23'18).

"We  in Opec always pride ourselves as friends of the United States, "  Barkindo said. He added that the "oil and gas industry basically is an  American industry, it remains the biggest market for our exports, it remains  the engine of growth in terms of technology, in terms of investment capital,  and in almost all our decisions we always take into account the interests of  not only producers, but also consumers."

India has also  publicly expressed fears about the impact of rising prices on its economy (IOD May21'18).

Whatever  the decision in Vienna is, al-Falih assured that "we will do the right  thing" to "make sure that markets are well supplied, that  consumers' anxiety is addressed and that the market is balanced."

NelliSharushkina  with NadezhdaSladkova, Moscow, and Amena Bakr, Dubai

推荐阅读

---

如欲转载本文章，请注明内容来源于金联创