【变局·专栏2】美国重要吗？（中英双语）

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编者按：本周，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在《环球时报》英文版专栏“Wang Wen on Changing World”中发布第二篇专栏文章《美国重要吗？》于2019年8月27日刊出，现将中英文内容转发如下：

1

前段时间，我受邀在欧洲参加关于全球治理的主题研讨会。

A few months ago, I attended a thematic seminar in Europe on global governance.

主办方邀请了十多个国家的智库代表，讨论到尾声，有代表忽然发现，这次研讨会竟没有来自美国的学者。

The organizers invited representatives from think tanks of more than 10 countries.At the end of the discussion, a few delegates realized there were no US scholars present.  

2

去年，在伊斯坦布尔的一次研讨会上，当涉及讨论中东下一步走向与美国角色时，一位学者对美国代表说，中东要发展，最好的方式就是美国离开。

Last year, at a seminar in Istanbul, when it came to discussing the next steps in the Middle East and the role of the US, one scholar told the US delegates that the best way for the Middle East to grow is for the US to exit the region.

两段经历令我不禁思考，在当今世界，美国还重要吗？

Both experiences inspired me to ask, is the US still playing an important role on the world stage?

3

美国当然很重要，但没有过去那么重要。

The US is important, of course, but not as much as it used to be.

2019年3月，在巴黎召开的全球治理论坛，仅有中国、英国、法国与欧盟的领导人参加；4月，在北京召开的“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛，130多国高级代表与70多个国际组织负责人参加，仍没有美国；6月，在大阪，中俄印三国领导人会晤倡导多边主义；在比什凯克，上合组织重申世界公平正义，同样没有美国。

In March, a global governance forum in Paris was attended by officials from China, Britain, France, and the EU. In Osaka in June, leaders from China, Russia, and India met to advocate multilateralism. In Bishkek, the Shanghai Cooperation Organization reaffirmed their intent to ensure security for their region, and there was no US.

在日内瓦的联合国人权理事会总部、在巴黎的联合国教科文组织，美国人都不见了踪迹。

At the headquarters of the UN Human Rights Council in Geneva and at UNESCO in Paris, Americans were nowhere to be seen.

4

这些年，特朗普政府不断“退出”，看似在维护美国的利益，实际上却正在形成了一个“自我孤立”的美国以及“去美国化”的世界。

In recent years, the Trump administration has repeatedly pulled the US out of international treaties and organizations to safeguard US interests, but in fact, it has created for itself an isolated America and de-Americanized world.

难怪我的同事、刘志勤先生近期曾撰文问道：“如果世界没有了美国，行不行？”

No wonder my colleague Liu Zhiqin recently asked in an article, if the world were without the US, would it be all right?

5

事实上，随着这些年中国的全球拓展，美国的角色一直在后退。

While China expands globally, the US' role is waning.

中国在倡导或建立很多没有美国的国际治理机制，如金砖国家组织、上海合作组织、金砖国家银行、亚投行、澜湄合作机制、中东欧17+1、中非合作论坛、中国+东盟合作机制等。

China is advocating or establishing international governance mechanisms, such as the BRICS, the SCO, the New Development Bank, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism, 17 + 1 cooperation between China and Central and Eastern European countries, the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation and China-ASEAN cooperation.  

尤其是2013年“一带一路”倡议提出后，中国开始站在全球的视野与国际社会进行互动，提出了很多与全球以及地区治理相关的治理倡议，例如，中蒙俄经济走廊、中巴经济走廊等等。中国的全球视野变得越来越宽，美国只是这个宽视野中的一环。

Especially after the Belt and Road Initiative was put forward in 2013, China began to interact with the international community from a global perspective and has come up with many governance initiatives related to global and regional governance.

6

或许美国应该反思，中国这些年与所有大国、区域的双边关系都在升温，而为何中美关系却止步不前甚至出现了倒退？

Perhaps the US should reflect: Why is the China-US bilateral relationship stagnating, even regressing as China's relations with other major countries and regions have progressed?

7

2019年，中俄宣布进入新时代。

In 2019, China and Russia upgraded their relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination for a new era.

中日关系不断升温。

China-Japan relations are warming up.

8月，第9次中日韩三边会谈在北京举行，美国在东亚两大盟国似乎同时走近中国，磋商地区对外政策合作问题。

Recently, the ninth China-Japan-South Korea trilateral foreign ministers' meeting was held in Beijing. Two of the biggest US allies in East Asia seem to be approaching China simultaneously to discuss regional foreign policy cooperation.

中英关系也处在“黄金时代”。

China-UK relations have just experienced a golden period.

中国欧盟关系也不错。

China's relationship with the EU is also strong.

中非关系、中国拉美关系、中国东盟关系都保持在高位运行。

Relations with Africa, Latin American countries, and ASEAN have all reached a relative all-time high.

8

下一代年轻人正在“用脚投票”表达着对美国的真实想法。

The younger generations of Chinese are voting with their feet to express what they think about the US.

中国留学生不再紧紧盯着美国，英国、澳大利亚、俄罗斯、中东欧国家等都成为了中国留学生的新选择。

Chinese students who want to study abroad are no longer focused on the US.The UK, Australia, Russia, and Central and Eastern European countries have emerged as new options.

9

根据美国移民与海关执法局的统计显示，今年3月，在美国大学注册就读的中国留学生数量同比减少2%。

According to statistics released by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement in March, the number of Chinese students enrolled at US universities dropped 2 percent year-on-year.

而申请英国本科的中国学生人数为19760人，比2018年增长30%！

Applications from Chinese undergraduates to study at British universities have increased by 30 percent since 2018.

10

中国游客也在做新的选择。

Chinese tourists are also choosing new destinations.

据美国官方统计，2018年赴美中国游客数量比上年减少5.7%，而2018年中国赴俄游客同比增长21.1%，总量与赴美游客基本持平。

Travel from China to the US fell 5.7 percent in 2018, while the number of Chinese tourists to Russia increased by 21.1 percent year-on-year.

要知道，中国每年有将近1.5亿人次出国出境旅游，是全球多数国家最大的旅游客源国。

A new estimate from Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, says that the US could see nearly 1.5 million fewer Chinese visitors through next year because of China-US trade tensions.

11

当然，我绝不认为，美国不重要。

Of course, I don't believe the US is no longer important.

美国仍然是中国对外关系中影响最大的国家变量。

It remains the most influential state variable in China's foreign relations.

美国对中国社会、文化、经济的影响仍然很大，诚如对其他国家的影响一样，美国仍是全球实力最强的国家，但美国对世界、对中国的重要性在下降，这也是事实。

US influence on Chinese society, culture, and the economy is enormous as it has been for other countries. The US is also the world's most powerful country, but it is also true that its importance to the world and to China is in decline.

12

或许我应该再引述一下刘志勤先生的观点：“世界需要一个新的美国，需要一个摒弃偏见和暴戾的美国，需要一个懂得尊重，言行一致，懂得‘仁义礼智信’的美国。如果‘新美国’能够成为这样的国家，将是世界之幸运。”

I think it's necessary to include something Liu once said that also applies here, "The world needs a new America. It needs an America that is free of prejudice and intolerance. It needs an America that understands respect, that matches words with deeds, that understands the principles of benevolence, righteousness, propriety, wisdom, and faithfulness. The world would be lucky if the new America could become such a country."

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。