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【老外看中国】意大利学者:中国经济增长史无前例(中英双语)

人大重阳 2019-11-07
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作者安东尼诺·维拉弗兰卡(Antonio Villafranca)系意大利国际政治研究所欧洲与全球治理中心联席主任,中国人民大学重阳金融研究院外籍高级研究员。中文版由杨清清、路雅慧翻译,刊于10月9日《人民日报海外版》;英文版刊于9月24日CGTN。



今年是中华人民共和国成立70周年。中国的经济增长史无前例,已是世界第二大经济体。考虑到中国拥有世界约20%的人口,她的经济增长速度和规模就更令人印象深刻。



中国经济的发展是中国领导人采取的各项政策和中国人民共同奋斗的成果。当前的国际体系是第二次世界大战后建立起来的,中国正是从这个体系中崛起为一个繁荣的世界大国。在世界经济论坛2017年年会上的讲话中,中国国家主席习近平用了一个比喻:世界经济的大海,你要还是不要,都在那儿,是回避不了的。想人为切断各国经济的资金流、技术流、产品流、产业流、人员流,让世界经济的大海退回到一个一个孤立的小湖泊、小河流,是不可能的,也是不符合历史潮流的。通过这个比喻,习近平主席强调了多边主义所带来的好处,与一些国家特别是美国开始出现的新保护主义立场形成鲜明对比。

事实上,中国对多边主义的坚持,使中国成为欧洲国家以及其他国家的重要伙伴。2018年,中国成为欧盟最大的进口来源国,也是欧盟第二大出口目的地。在欧盟成员国中,意大利与中国的合作位居前列。这并不奇怪,因为自70年前中华人民共和国成立时,意大利一直是最渴望与其展开对话的国家之一。

现在,意大利和中国的双边经济关系很好。2000年至2018年间,意大利在中国的直接投资排名欧洲第三,仅次于英国和德国。过去十年,随着中国投资者购买意大利重要企业的股份,中国在意大利的业务逐渐扩大。

强劲的双边关系远不止投资。中国是意大利的第三大出口国。2019年3月,两国签署关于共同推进“一带一路”建设的谅解备忘录,意大利成为七国集团中首个签署这一合作文件的国家。

以下为英文版


What has enabled strong China-Europe ties?


By Antonio Villafranca, Research Coordinator and Co-Head of the Center on Europe & Global Governance of the Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) and Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, Renmin University of China (RDCY)


China's economic growth has no historical precedent. Before Deng Xiaoping's reforms opened the country's economy to the world in 1978, China had been one of the poorest countries. Back then, its real per capita GDP was only one-fortieth of the U.S. level.


Now, forty years later, the ratio is almost one-third, and China's economy is the second-largest in the world. The pace and scale of this economic growth look even more impressive when one considers the fact that China is home to more than 20 percent of the world's population.

China's skyrocketing economy is the result of policies embraced by its leaders and of the strong will of its people. However, these alone would not be enough to enable China's economic miracle. China's success is also made possible by the country integrating itself into the international economy, the system inaugurated by western countries after the Second World War and out of which China emerged as a flourishing major world power.

President Xi clearly acknowledged this at the 2017 summit of the World Economic Forum in Davos. In his remarks, he used a powerful metaphor: "The global economy is the big ocean that you cannot escape from. Any attempt to … channel the waters in the ocean back into isolated lakes and creeks is simply not possible." By doing so, he effectively stressed the advantages of multilateralism, in sharp contrast with the neo-protectionist stance that emerged around the world even among Western states and particularly in the U.S., even though the latter had been the cornerstone of the post-war multilateralism.

Indeed, it was China's adherence to multilateralism that made it a key partner of European states, which was another important force pushing for multilateralism and free trade after the end of the Second World War.

In 2018 China was the biggest source of EU imports (394.8 billion euros) and the second-biggest destination for EU exports (209.9 billion euros), with a bilateral trade balance of about 185 billion euros in China's favor.

Chinese Premier Li Keqiang holds a welcome ceremony for visiting German Chancellor Angela Merkel before their talks in Beijing, capital of China, September 6, 2019. /Xinhua Photo

And as a European country, Italy has a particularly strong economic relationship with China. This is no surprise, as Rome has been one of the countries most eager to open a dialogue with the People's Republic of China since its founding 70 years ago.

Between 2000 and 2018, Italy ranked third in Europe (after the United Kingdom and Germany) in terms of foreign direct investment from China (about 15.3 billion euros). China's presence in Italy has gradually increased over the last decade as Chinese investors bought shares in key Italian companies such as FCA, Telecom Italia, Enel, Generali, Ansaldo Energia and CDP Reti, the most significant transaction dating back to 2015 when the China National Chemical Corporation acquired Pirelli.

Strong bilateral relations go well beyond investment: Italy-China trade reached 54.4 billion euros in 2018, a 9.5 percent increase over the previous year. China was the third-biggest exporter to Italy, its exports accounting for 7.3 percent of Italy's total imports (29.3 billion euros) in 2018.

Bilateral relations between the two countries were further strengthened in March 2019, when Italy became the first G7 country to sign a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with China in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). It should also be noted, however, that this raised some eyebrows both in Italy and in the EU which, while recognizing the significance and potential of the BRI for international trade, has expressed doubts on the form of co-operation China has so far been fostering through that initiative.

In presenting the BRI Beijing has always stressed the "win-win" nature of such co-operation, thus implying that the Belt and Road is intended to benefit both China and its partners.

Now while this is true in many cases, some of China's BRI partners have taken on dangerously high levels of public debt and may face solvency problems. It is worth noting that there have also been some other areas where China and the EU still have disagreements. For example, the EU and many member states are concerned about the "17+1" mechanism. More generally, Chinese investments in Europe have also raised concerns. It is therefore essential for China to show in concrete terms its willingness to further foster the norms and principles of multilateralism by aiming for the long-term benefits of multilateral co-operation.

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

 

作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。


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