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【变局专栏16】中俄需要战略再保证(中英双语)

人大重阳 2020-09-01
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编者按:中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在《环球时报》英文版专栏“Wang Wen on Changing World”的第十六篇专栏文章《中俄需要战略再保证》于今日刊出,现将中英文内容转发如下:




Among Russians, I respect President Vladimir Putin's economic advisor more than Putin himself. Sergey Yurievich Glazyev served as the minister of foreign economic relations of the Russian Federation at the age of 31. He later took the position of chairman of the State Duma's economic policy committee and was appointed the minister for integration and macroeconomics of the Eurasian Union just two months ago.

在俄罗斯人中,我最尊敬的不是普京总统,而是他的经济顾问谢尔盖·格拉兹涅夫博士。这位31岁就担任俄联邦对外经济联络部部长,后来又担任俄国家杜马经济政策委员会主席、两个月前刚被任命俄罗斯欧亚经济委员会一体化和宏观经济部部长的思想家的影响力,肯定是被中国人所低估的。

Over the past three years, I have worked with Glazyev to promote seven rounds of China-Russia economic think tank dialogue. He led delegations of Russian elites to Chinese cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Suzhou, and has been striving to make Russia look east. Glazyev believes China's experiences - that the country doesn't follow Western-style democracy but pays more attention to the modernization of national governance; that it has optimized allocation of resources and established the world's most complete industrial chain through formulating five-year plans; that it has set up a diverse financial system under the regulation of the central bank - are of immense value to Russia. 

三年来,我与他合作,推动了七轮中俄智库经济对话,目睹他带领俄罗斯的精英遍访中国北京、上海、深圳、苏州各地,推动俄罗斯“向东看”。他认为,中国摒弃西式民主,更注重国家治理能力的现代化;通过制定“五年规划”,实现了资源配置的最优化,建立起全球最为完备的产业链体系;建立了一套在中央银行宏观调控下的多元金融机构体系。这些中国经验对俄罗斯有重要借鉴价值。

第七届中俄经济对话于11月29日在中国人民大学苏州校区成功举办  

Glazyev's thinking reflects the great changes in Russians' perception of China in recent years. Some Russian surveys show that about 62 percent of the polled Russian citizens believe China is a friendly country and 68 percent hold the view that China's development is more successful than that of Russia.

格拉兹涅夫的思想折射了近年来俄罗斯人对中国看法的巨大变化。调查显示,俄59%公民支持延续或启动“俄罗斯向东转”的政策。俄62%民众认为,中国是友好国家;68%认为中国发展比俄罗斯更加成功;70%认为,俄与亚洲国家的积极合作利大于弊。

China has been felt in many Russian policies of recent years due to its popularity among the Russian public. Russia has followed China in setting up special economic zones. So far there have been about 30 special economic zones in Russia and over 100 industrial parks, covering sectors such as aviation, forestry and fish processing.

民意基础使俄罗斯近年来的不少政策都出现了中国的影子。俄罗斯效仿中国开始建立经济特区。目前俄罗斯有约30个经济特区,还有100多个工业园,包括航空、林业、鱼产品加工等。

I was invited to attend the annual meeting of the Valdai Club in 2017, during which Putin asked then executive chairman of China's Alibaba Group Jack Ma Yun for advice on how to promote cooperation on e-commerce platforms. Russia now has set up Dakaitaowa, an e-commerce platform dubbed "Russian Alibaba." Russia is hoping to realize mobile payment and establish export and training centers for small and medium-sized enterprises like China has done. The China-Russia east-route natural gas pipeline was put into operation on December 2, which has made the two countries more interdependent as if they were blood relatives.

2017年,我受邀参加俄罗斯最有影响力的瓦尔代俱乐部年会,亲耳听到普京总统向阿里巴巴董事长马云请教,如何推动电商平台的合作。目前,俄罗斯已设立电子商务购物平台“打开套娃”,被誉为“俄罗斯版的阿里巴巴”;还想如中国那样,能实现手机电子支付、建立中小企业出口及培训中心等等。上周,中俄东线天然气管道正式输送,使中俄之间像是血脉相联一样,变得更加相互依存。


In fact, China and Russia have seven common missions: maintaining social stability, safeguarding sovereign integrity, realizing national rejuvenation, promoting economic transformation, enhancing global governance, protecting world peace and preventing "color revolution" instigated by outside forces. Only by close cooperation can the two countries accomplish these missions. This should be incorporated into the diplomatic strategies of both countries and should be the rational choice of both societies. 

事实上,中俄两国有七大相同使命:维持社会稳定、保证主权完整、实现国家复兴、推动经济转型、加强全球治理、维护世界和平以及防范目前被外界力量所干扰而可能性上升的“颜色革命”。中俄两国只有合作,而且是亲密无间的合作,才能共同完成这七大使命。这应该上升到两国对外战略的信仰层面,也应是两国社会心理的集体理性。

Both China and Russia are big emerging powers, whose relationship has achieved the highest level among major power relations.They will forcefully fight back against the theory that says "a strong country is bound to seek hegemony," and open up a new epoch of civilization for Eurasia and mankind.

如果两国都能实现这七大使命,那么,同为新兴大国,中俄关系堪称是大国关系的全球楷模。两国将不仅改写西方国际关系理论中所谓“国强必霸”、“国强必争”的规律,更是开创欧亚大陆以及全人类的新文明纪元。

President Xi Jinping and Putin have met more than 30 times in various occasions since 2013. The two heads of state have been promoting relations with the future of mankind in mind. But frankly, not all elites and commoners in the two countries view their relations in such a way. Both countries have some pro-West people. Will Russia maintain the same closeness and friendliness with China in the post-Putin era?

过去七年,习近平与普京年均见五次面的事实表明,两国领导人早已从人类未来命运的高度来推动两国关系的发展。但坦率地讲,两国精英层与社会大众并不是所有人都这么看。两国都有不少“亲西方派”,尤其是俄罗斯方面,后普京时代是否还能保持对中国的亲近态度呢?

Hence, the two countries must have a strategic reassurance so that their current strategic mutual trust is sufficient to ensure that their relations will not be affected by any third party in the future and can withstand uncertainties.

按这个逻辑,两国必须要有战略再保证,让目前的战略互信关系足以确保未来不受第三方因素的冲击,也能抵御未来互动中的种种不确定性。

To achieve such strategic reassurance, the two countries need more wise men like Glazyev, who has not only proved the importance and feasibility of China-Russia strategic mutual trust academically, but also personally encourages the two countries to know and learn from each other. Beijing and Moscow's cooperation in e-commerce, energy, finance, currency, investment, and education is promising. In other words, apart from forging an alliance, there is no limit to their cooperation.

做到类似的战略再保证,两国下一代都需要有更多像格拉兹涅夫这样的智者,不只是从学理层面论证两国战略互信的重要性、可行性,更是身体力行地推动两国的相互认知与互学互鉴。在培养下一代的过程中,两国产能、电商、能源、金融、货币、投资、教育合作都远远没有到顶的时刻。换句话说,只要两国不结盟,中俄两国的合作是没有上限的。

Having entered a new period, both countries should look beyond history and earnestly find each other's merits. China cannot guide Russia, nor does it need to. To China, Russia has many aspects to learn from, but Russia should also open its arms to its neighbor more widely.

总之,中俄关系都进入了新时代。两国都要放下身段,超越历史,认真发掘对方的优点。中国不必指导、也指导不了俄罗斯。俄罗斯有其强大的底蕴,许多方面仍值得中国学,但俄罗斯也须向中国打开更大的国门。

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院(人大重阳)成立于2013年1月19日,是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

 

作为中国特色新型智库,人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员,旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前,人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理3个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心)。近年来,人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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