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作者王文系中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、丝路学院副院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任。本文原稿刊于2月17日观察者网、删减版刊于2月17日《中国银行保险报》，英文刊于2月18日《环球时报》英文版。
2020年春节，恐怕是改革开放以来中国人过得最困难、最难忘的新年季。全国上下都以战时状态度过这个特殊时期。中国决策层用“战争”来鼓舞人民士气、调动全国资源，“坚决打赢疫情防控的人民战争、总体战、阻击战”。
几天前，波黑前总理兹拉特科•拉古姆季亚发了一段视频给我，并希望我代他向中国社会表示支持，其中有一句话令我感动：“新冠病毒肆虐下，中国是全球保卫人类的第一道防线。”正是这种决策部署，使本可能会造成更多死亡病例、更大范围传染的新冠病毒疫情，控制在目前相对可预见的进程中。
2月17日，观察者网刊发截图
不过，中国困难期恐怕还会持续，更多的战斗还在后头。中国人必须有信心打赢五场战役，才能真正度过2020年困难期。
一是病毒阻击战。目前中国应对疫情调动医疗规模和速度已大大超过2008年汶川地震时的医疗救援。世界卫生组织已明确警告，全世界须“清醒地将这个病毒对手视为头号公敌”。而不少传染病学家则认为，新冠病毒很可能无法彻底根除。这就意味着中国需要将防疫工作常态化，既要保证各地逐渐有序复工，还要将病毒阻止在绝对可控制的区域或范畴内。中国通过关闭一座1100万人的超大城市武汉，为阻击病毒向世界蔓延做出了巨大牺牲。目前，确诊人数与死亡病例仍在增加，在湖北之外的蔓延速度已在下降。接下来，中国肯定会继续缩小病毒传播的范围，诊断病理，找到对治疗有帮助的特效药物，最终打赢这场战役。
二是经济复苏战。当前中国的消费、生产与贸易都受到疫情的巨大冲击。多位经济学家预测，2020年第一季度，中国经济可能会受到重创，GDP增长率下降到3.5%－5.0%，是1990年以来的最低水平。疫情也在冲击中国进出口，影响全球价值链的运行，甚至有可能会加重全球经济的低迷走势。目前，中国各个部委与地方政府已出台数百项政策，试图平衡企业正常运行与疫情防控安全。一场经济复苏战已在中国打响。多数机构对中国2020年后三季度的经济增长持有乐观态度，认为将会出现不可逆转的经济增长反弹。但当务之急是，如何平衡经济生产与疫情防控，尽可能地恢复市场信心与消费需求。
三是民生保卫战。疫情对中国民众的生活与健康造成了重大伤害。截至2月16日，已有约7万人确诊，超过1600人死亡，这是令人悲痛的事情。短期的经济衰退会使城市中低收入者、农民的利益受损，造成一定规模的失业人群，对中产阶层的冲击也不容忽视。农业减产的风险也应重视。2020年中国绝对消除贫困的目标将变得更加艰难。小康社会全面建成的任务也将变得更为艰巨。但人民生活水平的提升，是中国共产党的奋斗目标。通过医疗、财政、金融、税收等诸多手段，尽可能挽回受损民众的损失，犹如一场战争“反攻”时刻那样刻不容缓。
2月17日《中国银行保险报》版面截图
四是国际舆论战。中国疫情期，诸多国家与民众对中国捐赠、帮助与加油助威。但也有一些西方媒体与学者以所谓“言论自由”之名对中国抗疫横加指责、抹黑甚至歧视，用“疾病孵化器”、“亚洲病夫”、“黄祸”等恶毒语句形容中国。在许多人看来，这样的语句像是另一种病毒，甚至像炮弹，在另一条战线进攻中国，试图推动世界仇视中国。这些攻击折射了写作者的偏见、傲慢与残忍，也暴露了他们对中国的狂妄与敌意。但更多的外国人是理解、同情与支持中国的，友华言论与仇华言论之间是一场激烈的舆论战。中国需要采取方式加大理解与支持中国声音的“火力”，压制住那些舆论战线上的“敌人”。
五是中美经贸战。疫情让中美贸易第一阶段协议的执行受到了影响，甚至导致中美“脱钩”加速。特朗普总统比那些攻击中国的西方媒体与学者更有同情心，多次表示要支持中国抗疫。但中美战略互信有限，美国主要官员在许多场合恶意质疑中国数据，鼓噪制造业远离中国，夸大中国疫情形势，引发国际社会不必要的恐慌。随着美国新一轮大选的来临，“中国”话题必须会被热炒。“后第一阶段协议时代”的中美经贸博弈，不排除比第一阶段更激烈的可能性。对中国而言，这无疑又是一场新战役。
近期，新美国安全中心发布题为《大国持久战：初步评估》研究报告，美国应就中国崛起展开“持久战”式的长期规划。事实上，中国人对民族复兴的战略判断也是“持久战”的过程。不同的是，中国战略理念中的“持久战”不是对针对美国，也不是主动针对外界任何一个国家，而是如何克服本国发展进程中的重重障碍。
《大国持久战：初步评估》（Protracted Great-Power War: A Preliminary Assessment）
用“战役”、“战争”来比喻2020年中国克服困难的状态，并不是说中国人好战，而是为了表达中国人对困难的认识与克服困难的决心。中国是唯一一个过去40年从未对外使用武力、发动或参与战争的大国。这不只是源于中国长期坚持的和平发展外交政策，也源于当代中国人爱好和平的文化特性，更源于中国人希望通过非军事方式解决复杂问题的意志。从这个更宏大视角看，这场疫情“持久战”是整个中国崛起“持久战”的一部分。
所以，面对2020年困境，我相信，中国必胜，中国人必胜！
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Five battles that China must win in 2020
The 2020 Spring Festival might be the most difficult and unforgettable Chinese New Year since the launch of the reform and opening-up four decades ago. The whole country has spent this year's holiday as if it were wartime. Chinese decision-makers have used the word "war" to inspire people's morale and mobilize national resources, stressing the need to resolutely win the people's war against the novel coronavirus pneumonia (NCP).A few days ago, Bosnian politician Zlatko Lagumdžija sent me a video, in which he hoped to express, via me, his support to Chinese society. His words touched me: "Today you are on the first line of global defense of humanity under the grim shadow of the novel pandemic."China's decision-making and deployment of vast resources have managed the NCP in a relatively controllable process, which has prevented more deaths and widespread infection worldwide. China's difficult period may continue for a while and more battles are still to come. Chinese people must have the confidence to win five battles before truly ending this difficult period of 2020.
First, the battle against the coronavirus. At present, the scale and speed of China's response to the NCP has far exceeded that of the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The World Health Organization has warned that the world must consider the coronavirus "public enemy number one." Many experts of infectious diseases believe that the NCP may not be completely eradicated. This means that China needs to normalize its epidemic prevention efforts. China needs to ensure the orderly resumption of work, and put the virus' spread under control. By locking down Wuhan, a city with a population of about 11 million that is at the epidemic center in Central China's Hubei Province, China has made great sacrifices to prevent the virus from spreading beyond its borders. China will continue to contain the spread of the virus, diagnose its pathology, find effective medicine and eventually win this battle.
Second, the battle for economic recovery. China's consumption, production and trade are being greatly impacted by the epidemic. Many economists predict that the country may witness its weakest GDP growth rate since 1990, which might slow to 3.5 to 5 percent in the first quarter due to the hit by the epidemic. China's ministries and local authorities have carried out hundreds of policy initiatives in an attempt to strike a balance between the normal operation of enterprises and the prevention and control of the epidemic.It is generally believed that the fight for economic recovery will kick in China in the second quarter of 2020. Many institutions are optimistic about China's economic growth in the third quarter, believing there will be irreversible rebound.Third, the battle to safeguard people's livelihood. The epidemic has caused serious harm to the lives and health of the Chinese people. The short-term economic recession will hurt the interests of low- and middle-income Chinese. The impact on the middle class can also not be ignored. The goal of totally eradicating poverty by 2020 will be harder to achieve. Yet raising people's living standards is the aim of the Communist Party of China. It is an urgent battle to recover the losses the epidemic has inflicted on the Chinese people. The recovery is being facilitated through medical, financial, taxation and other measures.The fourth is the battle of public opinion. During China's fight against the epidemic, the governments of many countries and their people have donated medical supplies to assist and support China. Meanwhile, there are also some Western media and scholars accusing, smearing, and even discriminating against China, calling the country a "disease incubator" and "real sick man of Asia," in the name of freedom of speech.Many people regard such rhetoric as another kind of virus, or verbal cannonballs, attacking China on a new frontline. These attacks reflect the prejudice, arrogance and brutality of some Westerners, and present their conceit and hostility toward China. This is a fierce battle for public opinion.The fifth battle is the US-launched trade war against China. The outbreak has affected the implementation of the phase one trade deal. It has even accelerated the "decoupling" of the two countries. The mutual strategic trust between China and the US remains limited. With the approaching US presidential election, the subject of China will undoubtedly spark heated debates. The possibility cannot be ruled out that the China-US trade rivalry - post phase one trade deal - will be even more intense.Describing China's state of overcoming tough challenges in 2020 with words such as "battle" and "war" does not indicate the Chinese people are aggressive. It expresses their awareness of the difficulties and their determination to settle them. China hasn't resorted to force or launched a war in four decades. This is due to not only China's foreign policy, which underlines peaceful development, but also the peace-loving culture of modern Chinese people, and their willingness to combat complicated issues by non-military means. From a grander perspective, the battle of the epidemic is part of the "protracted war" of China's rise.In the face of the plight of 2020, I believe China and the Chinese people will prevail!(The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies, at Renmin University of China and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His new book Great Power's Long March Road was launched recently.)
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。