【专栏】为国家找活路，中美学者的新使命（中英双语）

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编者按：在《环球时报英文版》2月2日刊发的第69篇“变局”专栏中，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心执行主任王文认为中美两国问题的解药都在自身，而不在对方，这是中美博弈与过去500多年任何一对大国竞争都不一样的地方。

本文英文版在 Global Times 的版面截图

这些年，华盛顿智库圈许多老一辈学者都退休，或去了其他地方，如大卫·兰普顿、李侃如、史文、杰弗里·贝德、柯白。那批资深思想者（Thinkers）占美国智库圈主流的时代，美国对华看法总体上是理性的、包容的、对话频繁的，这令我非常怀念。

最令我怀念的学者是包道格。道格的第一份公职在中央情报局，后来担任过老布什时期白宫亚太事务资深主任、美国在台协会（AIT）台北办事处处长，还担任过卡内基国际和平基金会副总裁10多年之久。他身材高大魁梧，像巨石强森，初次打交道，多少让人有点敬畏。

但多次交往后，他的儒雅、温和与威猛身材完全相反。2012年，我曾与他深谈了两小时。至今印象深刻的是，他用中文说了几遍“活路”，即生活在一起的方式，是中美两国未来面临的最大挑战。这句话一语成谶，竟成了当下中美博弈不得不应对的困境。

在美国看来，中国发展富有野心，具有攻击性，直接威胁到了美国的全球领导权。而在中国看来，美国时时挑衅中国，剥夺中国的基本发展权，遏制中华民族的复兴。世界都在担心，两国关系离“你死我活”的状态似乎就差一步之遥。“包道格困境”好像已出现，莫非两个国家只能活一个吗？

其实不然。经过特朗普四年的恶斗，两国或许必须面对和承认当前很重要的四个基本现状：

第一，中美两国都无法从外部遏制对方的自身演变。美国不可能遏制中国发展，美国连全面遏制住伊朗、朝鲜都做不到，更何况GDP已达到美国3/4、对外贸易、吸引投资与消费总量都已超过美国的中国呢？中国也不能无视美国的焦虑，中国对外战略需要考虑与美国的协调。任何试图一方打败另一方的想法，都是徒劳的。

第二，特朗普留给中美关系的是负资产，要往前走，必须清零。美国不应该把“特朗普对华外交遗产”视为对中国新一轮谈判的筹码，中美需要卸装简行。拜登上台两周，给多数G20国家的领导人通了电话，但还没有与中国领导人通电话，恐怕是源于特朗普流毒的影响。我希望，特朗普不应成为未来中美互动的障碍。

第三，中美继续恶斗，世界遭殃，两国人民更遭殃。过去四年，没有一个国家选边站，充分说明世界希望中美两国能正常发展。中美两个大块头，需要有顾及他人的共同责任。在这点上，约翰·克里气候特使的功能非常重要。两国需要寻求更多像应对气候变化这样的共同合作议题，让两国得益，让世界得利。

第四，中美两国都有值得对方借鉴的优点。美国的科技创新、金融发展，值得中国学习；中国的精准扶贫、基础设施也值得美国借鉴。中美合作，为两国社会与民众带来的福祉远超过两国恶斗。美国贫富悬殊在拉大，社会群体在分裂，种族矛盾在激化，党派斗争在恶化，拜登政府需要全力解决国内问题，打压中国无助于解决美国问题。中国国内也存在贫富差距、南北差距、城乡差距的大难题，反危机、反污染、反贫困、反腐败仍是中国主要的发展任务，与美国恶斗对中国发展丝毫没有帮助。

两国解决问题的最好方式是，都从对方身上借鉴更多优点，相互帮助，最终让本国人民得到实惠。换句话说，两国问题的解药都在自身，而不在对方。这是中美博弈与过去500多年任何一对大国竞争都不一样的地方。

拜登上台，我认识的一些70后、80后智库学者进入政府工作。多年来，在许多次中美青年学者对话会上，我领略过他们的聪慧、活力与学术功力。但是否能继承美国上一代智库学者的风格，让美国对华看法重回理性，还需要一段时间观望。

2019年1月，我最近一次见到包道格。他曾感叹，我们都老了，中美关系未来得靠你们年轻一代了。我觉得，年轻一代智库人必须有能力、有智慧为两国决策者建言，履行我们的新使命，为国家发展寻求活路，让两国走出“包道格困境”。

以下为英文版

Can China and US coexist and escape Douglas Paal’s forecasted dilemma?

By Wang Wen

China-US relation. Illustration: Liu Rui/GT

In the era when groups of senior thinkers occupied the mainstream of American think tank circles, the US view of China was generally rational and tolerant, defined by frequent dialogues, which I miss very much.

The scholar I miss the most is Douglas Paal. Paal used to work in the CIA, and later served as senior director for Asian affairs in the White House during the George H. W. Bush administration, and director of the American Institute in Taiwan. He is vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. He is tall and burly, like Dwayne Johnson, and somewhat awe-inspiring when talking with him - especially for the first time.

However, after talking with him for several times, Paal started to give me a different image, that he is elegant and gentle. In 2012, I had a two-hour conversation with him. What impressed me up to now was when he said "huo lu" several times in Chinese, meaning the way of living together. He thought it was the biggest challenge that China and the US would face in the future. This sentence has become a prophecy, and a dilemma that China and the US have to deal with in their competition.

From the US' perspective, China's development is ambitious and aggressive, directly threatening the US' global leadership. From China's point of view, the US constantly provokes China, deprives its basic development rights, and curbs the rejuvenation of the nation. The world is worried that the relationship between the two countries seems to be one step away from the state of "life and death." The "Paal Dilemma" seems to have emerged. Is it possible that only one of the two countries can survive at last?

Now there are four realities China and the US must face. 

First, neither China nor the US can contain one another's self-evolution. There is no way for the US to curb China's development. China should also pay attention to US anxiety.

Second, what Trump left are negative assets. If the two countries want to move forward, they must discard Trump's legacy. After US President Joe Biden assumed office, he called most leaders of the G20 countries, but not China. This is probably because of Trump's poisonous influence. Trump should not become the obstacle for bilateral ties.

Third, if China and the US continue to battle each other ferociously, the two and the rest of the world will suffer. In the past four years, no country in the world has chosen either Washington or Beijing. This fully demonstrates that the international community hopes for normalized development with China-US relations. Also, John Kerry's role as US Special Presidential Envoy for Climate is very important so the two countries can address climate change to benefit humanity.

Fourth, both China and the US have strengths that each can learn from. For China, the technological innovation and financial development of the US are worth learning from. For the US, China's policy of "targeted poverty alleviation" and infrastructure development hold many valuable lessons.

In the US, the disparity between the rich and the poor is increasing, society is becoming more divided, and racial conflicts as well as partisan rivalry are also intensifying. The Biden administration needs to do its utmost to solve its domestic problems, and suppressing China will not help solve the US' problems. 

China is facing problems too, such as the gap between the rich and the poor, north and south disparity, and urban and rural uneven growth. Regarding these, China still needs to consider anti-crisis measures, anti-pollution policies, anti-poverty campaigns, and anti-corruption drives as its main development tasks. Fighting with the US will not help China's development in any way.

After Biden assumed office, some think tank scholars I know have joined the US government. In bilateral dialogues among young scholars from China and the US over the years, I have witnessed their wisdom, vitality and academic skills. However, it will take some time to see whether or not they will inherit the manner of American scholars of the last generation, turning US views toward China back on a rational track. 

The last time I met Paal was in January 2019. He lamented that he and a number of China hands like him were aging, and that future China-US ties will depend on the younger generation. I think the next generation of think tanks must have the ability and wisdom to offer reasonable advice to policymakers, so as to fulfill the missions of helping the two countries escape Paal's forecasted dilemma.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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