【专栏】全球治理的休克（中英双语）

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编者按：中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版11月17日刊发第59篇“变局”专栏，文章中文版刊于11月19日《中国银行保险报》。他对美国是否能重新领导世界不太看好，因为全球治理已休克，复苏回来并不容易。本期人大重阳君为您推荐专栏的中英文版。

本文英文版在 Global Times 的版面截图

在新一轮美国大选中获胜的乔·拜登曾撰文表示，美国要重新领导世界。笔者对美国是否能领导世界不太看好，因为全球治理已休克，复苏回来并不容易。

休克的第一个特征源于以美国为领导的全球治理惯性与行为传统的彻底失势。新冠肺炎疫情是一战以来第一次美国没有担当国际领导的全球危机。从一战、1929年全球大萧条、二战、1970年代石油危机、冷战、1990年代中东危机，再到2008年国际金融危机，美国一直充当或处在主导国家的位置。但这一次全球公共卫生危机，美国非但领导不了世界抗疫，连自身也难保。

第二个原因则是以联合国、WTO、WHO为代表的全球治理主要国际组织的严重失常。联合国官员非常努力，但坦率地说，一向以促成大国一致为目标的联合国，这一次完全失去了号召力，国际道德优势空前衰弱。面对国际贸易大衰退，WTO改革与应对严重失常。WHO一直冲在最前沿，但由于美国退出，国际抗疫的联合效果大打折扣。

三是以G20、G7为代表的全球危机应对大国协调机制极度失位。大国之间在危机时期的协调，在1970年代石油危机、1990年代中东危机、1997年亚洲金融危机、2008年国际金融危机中都发挥了巨大作用。但这一次疫情，G7国家受到重创，至今仍困于更严重的第二波疫情中。G20峰会领导人曾有会晤，但G20峰会在主题聚焦、决议执行上仍存在着严重的分歧。人类在百年一遇大疫情的冲击下，至今没有抱团。

四是以IMF、世界银行为代表的国际财政货币协调机制全面失措。人类历史处于二战以来最严重的负增长中，本应该齐心协力共同复苏。可惜欧美国家量化宽松，实行零利率甚至负利率，变相打响国际货币战、汇率战。尤其是美国无限量宽的货币政策短短半年间超发近3万亿美元货币，造成国际金融市场的剧烈动荡，无异于雪上加霜。

当前国际体系存在严重的治理赤字。疫情冲击下，治理赤字在加大，如同外力重击孱弱的全球治理，令后者直接出现休克。

“全球治理”兴盛于冷战结束以后，一批有识之士试图推动人类超过国家、种族、宗教、意识形态，维护国际社会的正常秩序，在现有的国家体系、国际机制与全球规则基础上，解决诸多跨国性的人类难题。

应该说，全球治理曾取得过巨大成就。但为何2020年却变得如此不堪一击呢？

这场疫情远远超过人们当初的想象是首要原因。新冠肺炎疫情刚发生时，多数中国人都以为又是一场非典。现在再对照，非典在2003年全球仅9000多人感染，感染新冠肺炎的人已超过非典的6000倍，且还在扩大。人类低估传染病危害，并为此付出了巨大代价。

付出代价最大的是以自由主义价值观念为社会基石的欧美国家。新冠肺炎疫情肆虐了近一年，没想到欧美还有那么多人以自由为名，拒绝戴口罩。维护自由，在社会繁荣时尤其可贵；但在危机时，人人都应有牺牲自由的责任与义务。作为全球治理长期主导者的欧美国家抗疫不力，直接导致新兴国家、发展中国家群龙无首。

有人说是时候该中国来领导全球治理了，错！在笔者看来，中国没有意愿领导全球治理。中国希望为全球治理提供中国方案，但这个方案肯定不是“中国领导权”。

中国主张的全球治理观不是雁型结构式，即一国带头、他国跟进，而是平等、包容与网状。全球治理的未来需要协商、自愿、尊重每一个国家的根本意愿。

在笔者看来，当务之急仍是国际防疫合作。全人类都须正视疫情的长期危害性。每一个国家都应分享新冠病毒毒株基因组序列，共克难关，发明广泛普适性的疫苗。每一个国际政治组织都应为此而呼吁、推动，每一个人也都应长期戴上口罩。

本文中文版在《中国银行保险报》的版面截图

以下为英文版

Before next US govt resumes world leadership, humanity must restore global governance

By Wang Wen

Joe Biden published an article "Why America Must Lead Again" in a Foreign Affairs magazine earlier this year. In fact, what matters to the world is not who leads it, but whether or not the global governance, which is now in a state of shock, can be appropriately restored. 

Global governance is in dire straits. The primary reason for this stems from the US abandonment of the norms or international institutions over the past few years. Then COVID-19 came. This is the first global crisis in which the US has not assumed international leadership since the World War I. The US has always been in a leading position with the WWI, the Great Depression in 1929, WWII, the 1970s energy crisis, the Cold War, the Middle East crisis in the 1990s, and the 2008 global financial crisis. However, in this global public health crisis, the US didn't lead the world in fighting the pandemic. Nor could it even protect itself.

The second reason is the serious disruption to major international organizations of global governance represented by the UN, WTO and WHO. The UN has always aimed at bringing great powers together, but it has lost its appeal during COVID-19 outbreak. Former advantages of international morale are currently weaker than ever. 

In the face of the ongoing global recession with protracted trade loss, WTO's reform and response has been seriously harmed. The WHO has been fighting at the anti-pandemic forefront, but the effectiveness of the international response to the virus has still been greatly diminished due to the US going out of the picture.  

Third, coordinating bodies such as the G20 and G7 have not been harnessed to their fullest capacities, and have seemed to be disarrayed. Coordination among major powers has played a huge role in past global crises of the past half century. But during the COVID-19 outbreak, G7 countries were hit hard. Worse still, they are trapped in an even more severe second wave. G20 leaders held a virtual meeting in March, but internal disputes regarding the theme and implementation of the resolution still exist in the G20 summit. The lack of unity among major powers has encouraged protectionism and de-globalization in many countries. Under the pressures of this pandemic, humanity has not been united.

Fourth, international fiscal and currency coordination bodies, such as the IMF and the World Bank, have become ineffective. Human history is seeing the worst negative growth since WWII, and all countries should have worked together to recover. Unfortunately, some European countries and the US have implemented quantitative easing and zero or even negative interest rates. This has indirectly started an international currency conflict. In the US, the federal budget deficit surpassed $3 trillion through August, and is projected to widen to $3.3 trillion by the end of this fiscal year. This has led to violent turbulence in international financial markets and is worsening the situation.

The sick global governance is an important reason for the out-of-control global pandemic. Due to the COVID-19, governance deficits are increasing, adding greater pressure on weak global governance and leading to further pains.

Global governance has flourished since the end of the Cold War. Some people of insight have tried to push humanity to maintain the order of the international society and resolve transnational problems based on existing international mechanisms and global rules - regardless of their nationality, race, religion, or ideology.

It should be said that global governance has made great achievements. But why has it become so vulnerable in 2020? The primary reason is that the COVID-19 pandemic is far worse than anyone could have imagined. 

When COVID-19 broke out, most Chinese people thought it was another SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome). In 2003, SARS infected only a little more than 8,000 people on a global basis. The number of COVID-19 infections has been over 6,000 times in comparison of SARS, and the number is still rising. Human beings have underestimated the detriment of infectious diseases and are now paying a high price for them.

Countries in Europe and the Americas, whose societies are based on liberal values, have paid the highest price. The pandemic has rampantly spread for nearly one year. Unexpectedly, there are still a great number of people in Europe and North America refusing to wear masks in the name of freedom. Safeguarding freedom is especially valuable when society is prosperous. Yet amid crisis, everyone should have the obligation and responsibility to sacrifice their freedoms to reasonable demands. European and American countries - long-term leaders in guiding global governance - have not been able to effectively fight the pandemic. This has directly led to the lack of leaders in emerging and developing countries in dealing with the deadly disease. As such, much of the world has fallen into chaos.

Some people are now asking: is it the time for China to lead global governance? No! From my perspective, China harbors neither the will nor sufficient capability to lead global governance. Beijing hopes to contribute a "China plan" to global governance, but the plan does not involve China's leadership. China's notion on global governance is not the pattern in which one country should take the lead and others follow suit. It should be based on equality and inclusiveness. The future of global governance will involve consultations, with the will of every country being respected.

I believe international cooperation in battling the pandemic remains the priority for international community. Human beings should have a clear awareness of the long-term impairment of the pandemic. Every country should share the genome sequences of the novel coronavirus, overcome difficulties together, and develop widely available vaccines. This is what every international political organization should promote and appeal for. And every citizen across the world has to wear masks in the long-run.

Global governance has reached a critical juncture where everyone has to contribute to and work toward an identical goal.

（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China. ）

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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

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