编者按：在《环球时报英文版》3月16日刊发的第73篇“变局”专栏中，中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文认为，当许多国家都不确定5天、15天以后的政策时，中国希望用最具可行性的规划表达未来5年、15年的确定性，为世界输出相对稳定的预期与相对可测的方向。下文为专栏的中英文版。
本文英文版在 Global Times 的版面截图
如果有人告诉你，投资1元钱，100年后能收获100万亿元，这意味着年化收益率38%，是股神巴菲特过去50年年化收益率的2倍。你会投资吗？没有人相信世界上会有这么持久的稳定收益率，但中国共产党做到了。有人曾把100年前中国共产党成立当做公司创业，1949年建立新中国比做上市，1978年改革开放意味着国际化，再把2020年GDP比做市值。那么，这家市值是100万亿元人民币的公司，公布未来15年规划时，投资者会关注吗？稍有远见的投资者都会看好这只股票并长期持有。 正是这个原因，我强烈推荐变局专栏的英文读者们精读3月13日公布的《中华人民共和国国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划和2035年远景目标纲要》，19个部分，65章，6万多字，详细地记录了中国新百年征程第一个5年以及相对长远的15年目标、方针、路径与实施方案。 一是“高质量”。《纲要》没有提出未来5年具体的经济发展目标，而是说“保持在合理区间、各年度视情提出”，但5年后，常住人口城镇化率须从60.6%提升至65%，研发经费须年均增长7%，单位GDP能耗须降低13.5%，人均寿命须提升1岁等等代表着国家高质量发展的指标，却有实实在在的规划。这告诉全世界，中国发展不再过度追求速度，而是追求质量，并为此扎实地采取措施、方法与路径。二是“防范风险”。《纲要》里明确谈到了国内与国际环境的许多风险。世界进入了动荡变革期，而国内发展不平衡不充分问题仍然突出。疫情风险、社会风险、金融风险、供应链风险、返贫风险、环境风险，都有可能出现“倒灌”、“并发”与“倒退”的可能性。这正是《纲要》呼吁增强“风险意识”，树立“底线思维”，健全“防范化解重大风险体制机制”的原因。这反映了中国决策层的谨慎、稳健与战略自信。三是“务实改革”。《纲要》里对创新驱动、现代产业体系、强大国内市场、加快数字化发展、构建高水平市场经济、乡村振兴、城镇化、区域协调、文化软实力、绿色发展、高水平开放、国民素质、民生福祉、安全、国防、法治以及祖国统一等17个方面做了相当细致的规划，最后还做了规划保障体系的设定。《纲要》没有唱高调，而是重细节，讲步骤，求务实。当许多国家都不确定5天、15天以后的政策时，中国希望用最具可行性的规划表达未来5年、15年的确定性，为世界输出相对稳定的预期与相对可测的方向。如果研究1952年第一份五年计划以来的所有国家的发展战略计划，会很容易地发现，中国五年规划是全世界甚至是人类历史上最具有持久力、兑现程度最高的国家政策规划。这么良好的历史记录还有什么让人忽视对新一轮《纲要》的研读呢？事实上，正是过往西方缺少对五年规划的深度研究，才产生两类极端的情绪，一是对中国发展威胁感的恐惧，二是对中国崩溃破坏力的诅咒。实践不断证明一些西方观察者们的错误，而下一轮重新预测中国的新起点，或许可从《纲要》研读开始。正如伊曼纽尔·沃勒斯坦在1999年出版《所知世界的终结：21世纪的社会科学》中所说，21世纪应该比20世纪所知道的一切更有开放性。如果这种逻辑是可行的，那么，整个世界尤其是西方需要评估，未来5年、15年，一个高质量发展的中国到底是机遇，还是挑战？到底是该拥抱，还是去拒绝？到底是长期持有，还是选择放弃？这考验着西方对中国的战略新智慧。以下为英文版
China offers certainty during uncertain times
By Wang Wen
Five-Year Plan. Illustration: Tang Tengfei/GT
Picture this. Someone tells you that if you invest 1 yuan ($0.15), you will harvest 100 trillion yuan after 100 years. This means that the yearly return is 38 percent, which is twice that of US investor and business tycoon Warren Buffet over the past 50 years. Given this scenario, would you invest? No one would have faith in this long-lasting and stable rate of return. But the Communist Party of China has done it.Some people once compared the establishment of the Party 100 years ago to a corporate entrepreneurship, compared the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1949 to the company's listing in the market, compared the reform and opening-up in 1978 to its internationalization, and compared China's GDP in 2020 to its market value. So will investors pay attention to the company with a market value of 100 trillion yuan when it announces its plan for the next 15 years? Investors of foresight will be optimistic about the stock and hold it for a long time.This is why I recommend readers to read "The Outline of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-Range Objectives through the Year 2035." This records in detail the goals, policies and paths of the first five years of China's journey toward the second centenary goal and in 15 years.There are at least three very important keywords to keep in mind here.The first is high quality. The outline did not put forward specific economic development goals for the next five years, but instead proposed to keep the economy within a reasonable range and put forward specific goals according to each year's situation. China has pragmatic plans for indicators that represent the country's high-quality development. These include increasing the percentage of permanent urban residents to a total population from 60.6 percent to 65 percent. They also entail increasing research and development expenditures by more than 7 percent annually, reducing energy consumption per unit of GDP by 13.5 percent, and raising the average life expectancy by one year. This shows that China's development no longer pursues excessive speed, but quality. And China is taking concrete measures for this.The second is risk proof. Risks in the domestic and international environment are clearly addressed in the outline. The world has entered a period of turbulence and change, but the problem of unbalanced and inadequate domestic development remains acute. The possibility of risks is clear: epidemic, social, financial, supply chain, environmental pollution and the risk of backsliding into poverty again.This is why the outline calls for greater risk awareness, preparation for worst-case scenarios, and improved systems and mechanisms for preventing and defusing major risks. This reflects the prudence, moderation and strategic confidence of Chinese policymakers.The third is pragmatic reform. The outline has made a fairly detailed plan in 17 aspects including innovation-driven development, modern industrial system, strong domestic market, accelerating the development of digitalization and rural revitalization. Finally, it also set up the planning security system. The outline didn't pronounce lofty and flowery ideals, but instead emphasizes details, steps and a realistic spirit.At a time when many countries are uncertain about their policies for the next five or 15 days, China hopes to show the certainty of the next five or 15 years with the most feasible plans. This can provide the world with relatively stable expectations and a measurable development orientation.If we look into all the national development plans since the first five-year plan was made in 1952, we can easily find that China's five-year plans are the most sustainable and achievable national policy plans in the world or even the entire human history. People should read the new outline.Because the West lacks the in-depth research into China's five-year plans, it usually breeds two extreme sentiments toward China. The first is its fear of the so-called threat from China's development. The second is the tendency to curse China with the so-called China collapse theory. Facts have proved that some Western observers are wrong. The new starting point of predicting China can be achieved by reading the new outline.US sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein wrote in his 1999 book The End of the World as We Know It, what we know in the 21st century should be more open than what we knew during the 20th century. If this logic works, the whole world, especially the West, should evaluate whether or not China, which has developed in high quality, poses opportunities or challenges over the next five to 15 years? Should the world embrace or reject China? Should the world cooperate with or give up cooperating with China? This will test the West's strategic wisdom toward China. （The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China.）
中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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