AI算命师？可预测生死！
近日，丹麦技术大学（Technical University of Denmark）研究人员，利用600多万丹麦人口的健康记录、工资、工作时间、住所等数据，基于Transformer构建了一个名为life2vec的模型，用于预测某人在某个时间是否会死亡，预测准确率约为78%。
🤔️小作业：
1. What was a crucial element in the machine learning study for predicting death, according to the authors?
A) The use of sophisticated AI algorithms.
B) The collaboration with international researchers.
C) The sheer scale of the dataset used.
D) The involvement of renowned data scientists.
A) It is currently applicable for real-world tasks.
B) It has limited potential beyond academic research.
C) It is not ready for real-world tasks but theoretically versatile.
D) It is primarily focused on enhancing medical diagnostics.
无注释原文：
Machine learning can accurately predict death nearly 80% of the time, a new study found
From: Business Insider
Dec 24, 2023
Death and taxes may be the only certainties in life. And now advances in AI may have brought us one step closer to anticipating the former.
A new study found that it's possible to make accurate predictions about a person's death using a subset of AI known as machine learning.
The study's authors said the "sheer scale" of their dataset was key to their research. They collected a decade's worth of day-to-day records from more than 6 million people living in Denmark, according to the report.
The dataset includes health records, salary, working hours, residences, and more. Using that data, the researchers created a deep-learning model called "life2vec" to map out detailed sequences of an individual's life events, according to the study.
To test life2vec, the researchers ran a subset of the data to see if it could predict if someone had survived in the four years after 2016. The researchers knew the answer, but the algorithm did not.
"To test how good [life2vec] is, we pick a group of 100,000 individuals where half survive and half die," the study's lead author, Sune Lehmann, a professor at the Technical University of Denmark, told CNN. They focused on using individuals between the ages of 30 and 55 — when mortality is harder to predict.
Life2vec was right about 78% of the time, according to CNN. It found that individuals with high incomes or those who held managerial roles were more likely to survive. It also found that men, skilled workers, or individuals who had been diagnosed with a mental health disorder were more likely to have died.
The model outperformed existing "state-of-the-art methods" by about 11%, the authors said. Not surprisingly, life2vec performs better for groups with a greater number of health events in their records. The researchers found it also performed better with cohorts of younger people and women.
The researchers also used the model to make predictions about more subjective human details, like personality traits, which are typically gathered through questionnaires. Life2vec was able to make predictions about a host of human personality traits from a person's self-esteem to their sociability.
While life2vec may sound "ominous and crazy," it's likely to have an impact on work that's already going on in the real world, especially work driven by insurance companies, Lehmann told CNN.
Google has also been working on AI technology that can predict a person's death by analyzing health records.
Life2vec is not ready to perform any "real-world tasks" in its current state but, theoretically, "We can make any kind of prediction," Lehmann told CNN.
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注：完整题目见本文开头；中文文本为机器翻译并非一一对应，仅供参考
含注释全文：
Machine learning can accurately predict death nearly 80% of the time, a new study found
From: Business Insider
Dec 24, 2023
Death and taxes may be the only certainties in life. And now advances in AI may have brought us one step closer to anticipating the former.
死亡和纳税可能是人生中唯一确定的事情。而现在，人工智能的进步或许让我们离预测死亡更近了一步。
certainty
certainty /ˈsɜː.tən.ti/ 表示“确定的事情；必然的事；很有可能发生的事”，英文解释为“something that is very likely to happen; something that cannot be doubted”举个🌰：He will win - that's a certainty. 他会赢的——这是必然的。There are few absolute certainties in life. 世事无绝对。
anticipate
anticipate /ænˈtɪs.ɪ.peɪt/ 表示“预期，期望;预料”，英文解释为“to imagine or expect that something will happen”举个🌰：We don't anticipate any trouble. 我们不希望出现任何问题。
A new study found that it's possible to make accurate predictions about a person's death using a subset of AI known as machine learning.
一项新研究发现，利用机器学习（人工智能子领域）可以对一个人的生死做出准确的预测。
subset
subset /ˈsʌb.set/ 表示“子集（类似的数字、物体或人员的一个集合组，是另一个较大集合的一部分）”，英文解释为“a set (= a group of similar numbers, objects, or people) that is part of another, larger set”
The study's authors said the "sheer scale" of their dataset was key to their research. They collected a decade's worth of day-to-day records from more than 6 million people living in Denmark, according to the report.
该研究的作者表示，他们数据集“规模庞大”是其研究的关键。据报道，他们收集了居住在丹麦的600多万人过去十年的日常记录。
sheer
sheer /ʃɪər/ 1）作形容词可以表示“陡峭的；近乎垂直的”，英文解释为“extremely steep; almost vertical”，如：a sheer mountain side 陡峭的山坡；
2）强调“（某物）之重/之大等”，英文解释为：used to emphasize that something is very heavy, large etc. 如：the sheer scope就是用于强调scope，范围之大，举个🌰：The sheer size of the country makes communications difficult. 该国幅员辽阔，造成了通信的困难。
3）也可以解释为“完全的，纯粹的(pure)，彻底的”，英文释义：used to emphasize how very great, important, or powerful a quality or feeling is; nothing except，举个🌰：I'll never forget the look of sheer joy on her face. 我永远也不会忘记她满脸喜悦的神情。
scale
scale /skeɪl/ 1）表示“标度，刻度；等级”，英文解释为“a set of numbers, amounts, etc., used to measure or compare the level of something”如：the Centigrade/Fahrenheit scale 摄氏/华氏温标。
2）表示“比例；比例尺”，英文解释为“the relation between the real size of something and its size on a map, model, or diagram”如：a scale of 1:10,000 比例尺为1:10000。
3）表示“大小；规模；范围”，英文解释为“the size or level of something, especially when this is large”举个🌰：We don't yet know the scale of the problem. 我们还不知道问题有多严重。
The dataset includes health records, salary, working hours, residences, and more. Using that data, the researchers created a deep-learning model called "life2vec" to map out detailed sequences of an individual's life events, according to the study.
该数据集包括健康记录、工资、工作时间、住所等。研究人员利用这些数据，构建了一个名为“life2vec”的深度学习模型，以刻画个人生活事件的详细序列。
residence
residence /ˈrez.ɪ.dəns/ 表示“住所；住房；宅第”，英文解释为“a home”如：the Governor's official residence 总督官邸。
map sth out
表示“设计；详细安排；筹划”，英文解释为“to plan something in detail”举个🌰：The department has issued a new document mapping out its policies on education. 政府发布了一份新文件，详细阐述了其教育政策。
sequence
sequence /ˈsiː.kwəns/ 作名词，表示“一连串；一系列；顺序，次序；连续事件（或动作、事物）”，英文解释为“a series of related things or events, or the order in which they follow each other”举个🌰：The tasks had to be performed in a particular sequence. 这些任务必须按一定次序去执行。
作动词，表示“排序，定序”，英文解释为“the process of combining things in a particular order, or discovering the order in which they are combined”或者表示“测定DNA的序列”，英文解释为“to discover the order in which nucleotides (= chemical substances) are combined within DNA”举个🌰：Researchers sequenced the full genome of a rat. 研究者们测定了大鼠基因组的全部序列。
To test life2vec, the researchers ran a subset of the data to see if it could predict if someone had survived in the four years after 2016. The researchers knew the answer, but the algorithm did not.
为了测试life2vec模型的有效性，研究人员利用一部分数据进行测试，以确认它是否能预测某人在2016年后的四年内是生是死。尽管研究人员知晓真实答案（是否还活着），但算法是在无该答案的状态下作出预测的。
algorithm
algorithm /ˈælɡəˌrɪðəm/ 表示“算法；计算程序”，英文解释为“a set of rules that must be followed when solving a particular problem”。
"To test how good [life2vec] is, we pick a group of 100,000 individuals where half survive and half die," the study's lead author, Sune Lehmann, a professor at the Technical University of Denmark, told CNN. They focused on using individuals between the ages of 30 and 55 — when mortality is harder to predict.
该研究的主要作者、丹麦技术大学教授桑·莱曼（Sune Lehmann）告诉美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）：“为了测试[life2vec]有多好，我们挑选了10万人，其中一半存活，一半死亡。”他们重点选取了年龄在30到55岁之间的人群——在这个年龄段，是否会死亡更难预测。
mortality
mortality /mɔːˈtælɪtɪ/ 表示“死亡数量；死亡率”，英文解释为“the number of deaths in a particular situation or period of time”。
区分：
📍morbidity /mɔːˈbɪdɪtɪ/ 表示“发病（率）”，英文解释为“the morbidity of a disease is how many people have it in a particular population”。
Life2vec was right about 78% of the time, according to CNN. It found that individuals with high incomes or those who held managerial roles were more likely to survive. It also found that men, skilled workers, or individuals who had been diagnosed with a mental health disorder were more likely to have died.
据CNN报道，Life2vec的预测准确率约为78%。研究发现，高收入者或担任管理职务的人更有可能存活。此外，男性、技术工人或被诊断患有精神疾病的人更有可能死亡。
diagnose
diagnose /ˈdaɪəɡˌnəʊz/ 作动词，表示“诊断（病症）；查出（问题）”，英文解释为“to recognize and name the exact character of a disease or a problem, by examining it”举个🌰：She was diagnosed with/as having diabetes. 她被查出患有糖尿病。The electrician has diagnosed a fault in the wiring. 电工查出了一处线路故障。
📍可以看出，除了指查出病症，也可以指查出故障或者问题。名词形式：diagnosis /ˌdaɪəɡˈnəʊsɪs/
disorder
disorder /dɪˈsɔː.dər/ 1）表示“混乱，凌乱，杂乱无章”，英文解释为“a state of untidiness or lack of organization”举个🌰：The whole office was in a state of disorder. 整个办公室里凌乱不堪。
2）表示“失调，紊乱”，英文解释为“an illness of the mind or body”如：a blood disorder 血液失调。
The model outperformed existing "state-of-the-art methods" by about 11%, the authors said. Not surprisingly, life2vec performs better for groups with a greater number of health events in their records. The researchers found it also performed better with cohorts of younger people and women.
作者表示，与现有“最先进方法”相比，该模型的表现提高了大约11%。不出所料，对于健康事件记录较多的群体，life2vec的表现更为出色。研究人员发现，该模型在预测年轻人和女性群体的生死时也表现更好。
outperform
outperform /ˌaʊt.pəˈfɔːm/ 表示“超过，胜过；比…做得好”，英文解释为“to do well in a particular job or activity compared to others of a similar type”举个🌰：The company has consistently outperformed its rivals this season. 这一季，这家公司的表现一直优于竞争对手。
state-of-the-art
state-of-the-art /ˌsteɪt.əv.ðiːˈɑːt/ 表示“最先进的；应用最新理念（或方法）的”，英文解释为“very modern and using the most recent ideas and methods”如：a state-of-the-art computer 最先进的计算机。
几个类似表达：
📍cutting-edge表示“尖端的，前沿的”，英文解释为“Cutting-edge techniques or equipment are the most advanced that there are in a particular field.”举个🌰：What we are planning is cutting-edge technology never seen in Australia before. 我们正在筹划的是澳大利亚前所未见的尖端技术。
🎬电影《像素大战》（Pixels）中的台词提到：I'm thinking this is a cutting-edge multinational enterprise. 我想是某先进跨国组织干的。
📍 leading edge表示“（某活动领域的）最重要位置，领先地位；（尤指技术上的）前沿，尖端”，英文解释为“The leading edge of a particular area of research or development is the area of it that seems most advanced or sophisticated.”如：at the leading edge of scientific research 在科学研究的前沿。
cohort
cohort /ˈkəʊ.hɔːt/ 表示“有共同特点（通常指年龄）的一群人”，英文解释为“a group of people who share a characteristic, usually age”举个🌰：This study followed up a cohort of 100 patients aged 65+ for six months after their discharge home. 这项研究对100位年龄在65岁以上、出院回家的患者进行了6个月的跟踪观察。
The researchers also used the model to make predictions about more subjective human details, like personality traits, which are typically gathered through questionnaires. Life2vec was able to make predictions about a host of human personality traits from a person's self-esteem to their sociability.
研究人员还利用该模型对更加主观的人类特征进行预测，如性格特征（通常是通过问卷调查收集的）。Life2vec能够预测从自尊心到社交能力等一系列人类性格特征。
subjective
subjective /səbˈdʒek.tɪv/ 表示“主观的”，英文解释为“influenced by or based on personal beliefs or feelings, rather than based on facts”
trait
trait /treɪt/ 表示“（个人的）特征，特性，品质”，英文解释为“a particular characteristic that can produce a particular type of behaviour”举个🌰：His sense of humour is one of his better traits. 具有幽默感是他更讨人喜欢的特点之一。
questionnaire
questionnaire /ˌkwes.tʃəˈneər/ 表示“问卷；情况调查表”，英文解释为“a list of questions that several people are asked so that information can be collected about something”
a host of
表示“许多，大量”，英文解释为“a large number of something”举个🌰：There's a whole host of reasons why he didn't get the job. 有一大堆理由可以解释他为什么没有得到那份工作。
self-esteem
self-esteem /ˌself.ɪˈstiːm/ 表示“自尊”，英文解释为“belief and confidence in your own ability and value”举个🌰：The compliments she received after the presentation boosted her self-esteem. 发言后得到的赞誉增强了她的自尊感。
While life2vec may sound "ominous and crazy," it's likely to have an impact on work that's already going on in the real world, especially work driven by insurance companies, Lehmann told CNN.
莱曼告诉CNN，虽然life2vec听起来“令人不安且疯狂”，但它可能会对现实世界中已经在展开的工作产生影响，尤其是保险公司驱动的工作。
ominous
ominous /ˈɒm.ɪ.nəs/ 表示“恶兆的，不祥的，不吉利的”，英文解释为“suggesting that something unpleasant is likely to happen”如：ominous dark clouds 不祥的乌云，举个🌰：There was an ominous silence when I asked whether my contract was going to be renewed. 当我询问我的合同是否将续签时，回答我的是不祥的沉默。
Google has also been working on AI technology that can predict a person's death by analyzing health records.
谷歌也一直在研究人工智能技术，通过分析健康记录来预测一个人的生死。
Life2vec is not ready to perform any "real-world tasks" in its current state but, theoretically, "We can make any kind of prediction," Lehmann told CNN.
莱曼告诉CNN，Life2vec目前还无法执行任何“现实世界的任务”，但从理论上讲，“我们可以做出任何预测”。
theoretically
theoretically /θɪəˈret.ɪ.kəl.i/ 表示“理论上”，英文解释为“in a way that obeys some rules but is not likely”举个🌰：It is theoretically possible. 它在理论上是可能的。
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