讲座回顾 | 探索太阳能的未来 Exploring the Future of Solar Energy

—Lecture Review—

探索太阳能的未来

Exploring the Future of Solar Energy

在这个光伏技术迅猛发展的时代，大家是否会好奇其背后隐藏的秘密？答案就藏在这场特别讲座“光伏的前世今生和未来”中。这不仅是一次技术和投资领域的智慧碰撞，更是一次对创新环境和未来的深刻思考。11月17日，理工学院新能源学会有幸邀请到招商银行研究院资深行业研究员杨荣成先生，为香港中文大学（深圳）的同学们深入剖析了太阳能在全球能源结构中的重要性。

In an era marked by the rapid development of photovoltaic technology, aren't we all curious about the secrets behind its advancement? These answers lie within the special lecture titled "The Past, Present, and Future of Photovoltaics." This event wasn't just a collision of wisdom in technology and investment spheres but also a profound contemplation of innovative environments and the future. On November 17, New Energy Association of SSE were honored to host Mr. Rongcheng YANG, a Senior Industry Researcher at China Merchants Bank's Research Institute, who delved into the significance of solar energy in the global energy structure for the students at The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shenzhen.

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01

讲座回顾

Lecture Review

光伏行业的历史和发展：

History and Development of 

the Photovoltaic Industry:

杨先生回顾了光伏行业的历史。他指出，光伏技术的发展并非偶然，而是众多因素共同作用的结果。从德国和欧洲市场的早期起步，到中国市场的崛起，再到全球范围内的技术竞争，光伏行业经历了多次技术和市场的大浪淘沙。杨先生特别提到了金融危机和反倾销调查对行业的影响，以及中国市场的策略转变，如何从单一市场依赖走向技术自主和市场多元化。

Mr. Yang brilliantly revisited the history of the photovoltaic industry. He emphasized that the development of photovoltaic technology is not a matter of chance but a result of numerous factors working together. The industry has weathered many changes, from its early days in Germany and Europe to the rise of the Chinese market and global technological competition. He specifically mentioned the impact of the financial crisis and anti-dumping investigations on the industry and China's strategic shift from relying on a single market to embracing technological independence and market diversification.

技术创新和未来趋势：

Technological Innovations 

and Future Trends:

讲座中同学们深入了解到了光伏技术的进步，包括单晶和多晶硅技术的发展、电池片的制造过程，以及未来的技术创新方向，如叠层电池和钙钛矿电池等。他强调，技术创新是推动行业发展的关键动力，不断迭代的电池技术和组件生产工艺是提升光伏系统性能和降低成本的重要途径。

The lecture provided an in-depth understanding of advancements in photovoltaic technology, including the development of mono- and polycrystalline silicon technologies, the manufacturing process of solar cells, and future directions of technological innovation like tandem cells and perovskite solar cells. Mr. Yang highlighted that continuous innovation in battery technology and component manufacturing processes is crucial for enhancing the performance of photovoltaic systems and reducing costs.

市场和政策分析：

Market and Policy Analysis:

通过深入分析光伏行业的市场趋势和政策环境。同学们清晰地了解到分布式和集中式光伏电站的不同优势，工商业应用场景的变化，以及政府补贴政策的演变对行业的影响。他指出，随着技术进步和成本下降，光伏行业正逐步从依赖补贴向市场化转型。

Through a thorough analysis of market trends and policy environments in the photovoltaic industry, we gained a clear understanding of the distinct advantages of distributed and centralized photovoltaic power stations, changes in commercial and industrial application scenarios, and the impact of evolving government subsidy policies on the industry. He pointed out that with technological advancements and decreasing costs, the photovoltaic industry is gradually transitioning from subsidy dependence to market-driven operations.

02

Q&A 环节

Q: 目前电力需求增长的性质是什么？

A: 目前电力需求的增长与经济发展紧密相关，涉及所有产业领域。这种增长既包括旧电力系统的替代，也包括新兴需求。随着经济的增长和电气化的推进，如电动车的普及和制造业的电力需求，电力消耗持续增加。当前的GDP增速大约为5%，与此相匹配，全社会用电量的增速预计在5%至6%之间。时间过得很快，转眼一季度的工作已经落下帷幕，充满机遇的四季度快要开始。

Q: What is the nature of the current growth in electricity demand?

A: The current increase in electricity demand is closely linked to economic growth and spans all industrial sectors. It encompasses both the replacement of old electricity systems and the emergence of new demands. With economic growth and the advancement of electrification, such as the widespread adoption of electric vehicles and increased electricity demand in manufacturing, overall electricity consumption continues to rise. The current GDP growth rate is approximately 5%, and the overall electricity consumption is expected to grow at a rate of 5% to 6%.

Q: 钙钛矿技术在光伏行业的现状及对商业投资的影响？

A: 钙钛矿技术目前仍处于发展初期，尚未实现大规模商业化。虽然行业和学术界对此给予高度关注，但其广泛应用还需时间。一些企业通过开展光伏EPC等其他业务来支持钙钛矿技术的持续研发。钙钛矿技术的未来发展前景被普遍看好，但需要解决成本降低和产品稳定性问题。

Q: What is the current status of perovskite technology in the photovoltaic industry and its impact on commercial investment?

A: Perovskite technology is still in its early stages and has not yet achieved large-scale commercialization. Despite high interest from the industry and academia, its widespread application requires more time. Some companies support the ongoing research and development of perovskite technology by engaging in other businesses, such as photovoltaic EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction). The future prospects of perovskite technology are generally viewed positively, but cost reduction and product stability remain challenges.

Q: 摩尔定律在光伏行业中的作用及其对投资决策的影响如何？

A: 光伏行业的发展依赖于持续的技术进步，其中摩尔定律的突破对于行业至关重要。这要求行业不断进行技术革新，以提高效率和降低成本。虽然技术迭代并非短期内就能完成，但它对投资决策和市场预期产生了显著影响。因此，对行业的前沿技术和领先企业的研发动态保持密切关注是必要的。

Q: What role does Moore's Law play in the photovoltaic industry, and how does it affect investment decisions?

A: The development of the photovoltaic industry relies on continuous technological progress, with breakthroughs in Moore's Law being crucial. The industry requires ongoing innovation to improve efficiency and reduce costs. Although technological iteration cannot be achieved in the short term, it significantly impacts investment decisions and market expectations. Therefore, keeping a close eye on the industry's cutting-edge technology and the research and development dynamics of leading companies is essential.

Q: 2023年欧洲储能市场的现状和未来趋势？

A: 2023年欧洲储能市场受到了包括俄乌冲突在内的多种因素影响，这些因素导致能源价格上涨并改变了市场格局。主要市场如德国和意大利的储能需求原本随光伏市场增长，但现在面临高库存问题。长期来看，欧洲储能市场渗透率较低，预计有增长空间，但增速可能从之前的高速增长回归到更为常态的10%至20%。

Q: What is the current situation and future trend of the energy storage market in Europe in 2023?

A: The energy storage market in Europe in 2023 has been impacted by various factors, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has led to a rise in energy prices and changed the market landscape. The storage demand in key markets like Germany and Italy, which previously grew alongside the photovoltaic market, is now facing challenges due to high inventory levels. In the long term, the penetration rate of the energy storage market in Europe is relatively low, suggesting room for growth. However, the growth rate is expected to normalize to about 10% to 20% from the previously high rates.

Q: 光伏行业目前面临的主要市场挑战是什么？

A: 光伏行业目前的主要挑战是结构性产能过剩，部分原因是近年来行业过度投资。这种产能过剩在一些高级产能领域相对较少，而在同质化产能上则非常严重。因此，二级市场的表现并不完全反映行业的基本面。行业现正关注何时能达到供需平衡，这是一个长期过程。

Q: What are the main market challenges currently faced by the photovoltaic industry?

A: The primary challenge facing the photovoltaic industry is structural overcapacity, partly due to excessive investment in recent years. This overcapacity is less pronounced in advanced capacity areas but is quite severe in homogeneous capacities. As a result, the performance of the secondary market does not entirely reflect the industry's fundamentals. The industry is focusing on when supply and demand will balance, a process that will take time.

Q: 光伏行业的未来发展如何，特别是考虑到硅料价格的变化？

A: 光伏行业的未来发展将取决于供给侧的调整和市场的平衡。硅料价格的下降和产能出清对行业具有关键影响。硅料价格需要接近生产成本，以促使部分企业退出市场。尽管目前硅料仍然是利润较高的环节，但整体价格可能会继续下降。行业预计在明年下半年可能会看到一些市场平衡的迹象，但这仍有不确定性。

Q: How is the future development of the photovoltaic industry, especially considering the changes in silicon material prices?

A: The future development of the photovoltaic industry depends on adjustments on the supply side and market equilibrium. Decreases in silicon material prices and capacity clearance are crucial for the industry. Silicon material prices need to approach production costs to push some companies out of the market. Despite silicon material remaining a high-profit segment, overall prices are likely to continue to decline. The industry expects to see signs of market balance by the second half of next year, but this is still uncertain.

03

总结

  Conclusion

探索光明未来：

Explore the future:

随着这场讲座的落幕，同学们不仅获得了关于光伏技术的深刻见解，更收获了对未来能源格局的全新认识。这场智慧的交流仿佛一道启迪思维的光芒，让同学们对可持续发展与技术创新的重要性有了更加深入的理解。面对能源的未来，同学们看到了无限的可能，同时也感受到了追求绿色、高效能源体系的紧迫性。让大家携手前行，在创新与变革的道路上，共同探索一个更加明亮、清洁的未来。

As the lecture concludes, we've not only gained profound insights into photovoltaic technology but also acquired a fresh perspective on the future energy landscape. This exchange of wisdom is like a beam of light that enlightens our thinking, deepening our understanding of the importance of sustainable development and technological innovation. Facing the future of energy, we see endless possibilities and feel the urgency of pursuing a green and efficient energy system. Let's move forward together, exploring a brighter, cleaner future on the path of innovation and transformation.

更多活动 敬请期待！

More events to come!

文案

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