顶刊前沿 | 《美国政治科学杂志》2020年第3期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《美国政治科学杂志》2020年第3期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
American Journal of Political Science（美国政治科学杂志）是美国中西部政治学协会（MPSA）旗下学术期刊，目前由威立出版社代为出版。创刊于1973年，出版周期为每年4期，收录与政治科学相关的所有子领域。IF：4.515，在176种政治科学期刊中排名第2.
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：政治理论研究、政治学方法论、比较政治学、国际关系等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Can Terrorism Abroad Influence Migration Attitudes at Home?
境外恐怖主义会影响国内的移民态度吗？
Party Sub‐Brands and American Party Factions
政党子品牌与美国的政党派系
Cultivating Clients: Reputation, Responsiveness, and Ethnic Indifference in India's Slums
培植庇护主义——印度贫民窟的声誉、回应性和种族冷漠
Repression Technology: Internet Accessibility and State Violence
压制技术——互联网的可达性与国家暴力
Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe
幸福与投票——来自欧洲四十年选举的证据
A Choice‐Based Measure of Issue Importance in the Electorate
选举中基于选择的相关议题重要性度量
It Takes a Village: Peer Effects and Externalities in Technology Adoption
它扩展到了整个村庄——技术运用的同伴效应与外部性
Political Conflict over Time
历时性政治冲突
The Policy Basis of Measured Partisan Animosity in the United States
美国可测党派敌意的政策基础
Donors, Primary Elections, and Polarization in the United States
美国的政治捐助者、初选和极化
Universal Love or One True Religion? Experimental Evidence of the Ambivalent Effect of Religious Ideas on Altruism and Discrimination
博爱还是一种真正的宗教？宗教观念对利他主义和歧视的歧义影响的实验证据
A Public Ethics of Care for Policy Implementation
政策实施的公共关怀伦理
Policymaking with Multiple Agencies
多机构决策
Moderation and Competence: How a Party's Ideological Position Shapes Its Valence Reputation
温和与能力：政党的意识形态如何塑造其期望值与声誉
Bureaucratic Responsiveness to LGBT Americans
针对美国LGBT群体的官僚回应性研究
Sometimes Less Is More: Censorship, News Falsification, and Disapproval in 1989 East Germany
有时过犹不及——审查制度、新闻造假与1989年东德的反对运动
Identity as Dependent Variable: How Americans Shift Their Identities to Align with Their Politics
作为因变量的身份——美国人如何通过转变身份适应政治
At‐Large Elections and Minority Representation in Local Government
大规模选举和地方政府中的少数派代表
PART 3
精选译文
01 境外恐怖主义会影响国内的移民态度吗？
【题目】
Can Terrorism Abroad Influence Migration Attitudes at Home?
【作者】
Tobias Böhmelt University of Essex
Vincenzo Bove University of Warwick
Enzo Nussio ETH Zürich
【摘要】
本文论证了“国内”的移民舆论是由其他国家的恐怖主义系统驱动的。尽管几乎没有实质性证据将难民或移民与欧洲最近的恐怖袭击联系起来，但有关恐怖袭击的消息可能引发对移民的更多负面看法。然而，现有研究忽略了该过程中的空间动力学。我们认为，对迫切危险的感觉和对移民威胁的更为明显的认知并不局限于国界。基于空间计量经济学和有关后“911”时期欧洲所有恐怖袭击数据的经验结果支持了这些观点——恐怖主义对移民问题的影响在一个国家中较为明显且遍及欧洲。这一发现增进了我们对移民公众舆论以及恐怖主义的溢出效应的理解，并且为那些对人口流动的安全影响感兴趣的学者提供了重要的经验。
This article demonstrates that public opinion on migration “at home” is systematically driven by terrorism in other countries. Although there is little substantive evidence linking refugees or migrants to most recent terror attacks in Europe, news about terrorist attacks can trigger more negative views of immigrants. However, the spatial dynamics of this process are neglected in existing research. We argue that feelings of imminent danger and a more salient perception of migration threats do not stop at national borders. The empirical results based on spatial econometrics and data on all terrorist attacks in Europe for the post‐9/11 period support these claims. The effect of terrorism on migration concern is strongly present within a country but also diffuses across states in Europe. This finding improves our understanding of public opinion on migration, as well as the spillover effects of terrorism, and it highlights crucial lessons for scholars interested in the security implications of population movements.
02 政党子品牌与美国政党派系
【题目】
Party Sub‐Brands and American Party Factions
【作者】
Andrew J. Clarke Lafayette College
【摘要】
学者和专家们早就注意到美国两党体系的主导地位，但是我们对两大党内部出现内生的新制度知之甚少。笔者认为，意识形态派系提供了党派子品牌，这使立法者可以更精确地定义其党派类型并获取派系特有的资源。为了支持这一观点，笔者分析了关于众议院九个意识形态派别的新数据（1995年-2018年）。笔者发现（1）派别投票是截然不同的，这表明该党的子品牌已然成熟；（2）加入派系改变了候选人捐助者的意识形态构成——这取决于派系组织的实力。只有当派系拥有能够采取协调有纪律的组织特征 (例如党鞭、政治行动委员会、成员限制)时，政党子品牌才有效。这些结果表明，即使在高度极化的政党内部，美国的政治意识形态也不仅仅是二分法的选择。不同派系将政治捐款人的利基市场，作为削弱政党权力的金融工具的一种手段。
Scholars and pundits have long noted the dominance of the American two‐party system, but we know relatively little about new, endogenous institutions that have emerged within the two major parties. I argue that ideological factions provide party sub‐brands, which allow legislators to more precisely define their partisan type and capture faction‐specific resources. To support this claim, I analyze new data on nine ideological factions in the House of Representatives (1995–2018). I find that (1) faction voting is distinct, suggesting a product ripe for party sub‐branding, and (2) joining a faction changes the ideological composition of a candidate's donor base—conditional on the strength of the faction's institutions. Party sub‐branding is effective only when factions possess organizational features that induce coordinated and disciplined position taking (e.g., whips, PACs, membership restrictions). These results suggest that, even within highly polarized parties, American political ideology is more than a dichotomous choice, and factions target niche markets of political donors as a means of blunting financial instruments of party power.
03 培植庇护主义——印度贫民窟的声誉、回应性和种族冷漠
【题目】
Cultivating Clients: Reputation, Responsiveness, and Ethnic Indifference in India's Slums
【作者】
Adam Michael Auerbach American University
Tariq Thachil Vanderbilt University
【摘要】
对庇护主义的研究绝大多数集中在掮客如何在选举期间以自上而下的利益瞄准选民。然而，掮客也也会在选举期间收到选民的帮助请求，从而开始了他们培养受惠者的过程。掮客为何仅对某些选民而不是其他选民的要求作出反应？我们首次在评估受惠者吸引力时提供了关于掮客偏好研究。强调掮客作为选票监测员的理论认为，他们将更喜欢同党和种族主义者，因为他们的互惠性可以得到最好的验证；强调掮客作为投票动员者的理论则认为，他们将更喜欢能使自己的声誉最大化的居民。通过一项包括629名印度贫民窟领袖的联合实验，民族志田野调查以及对2199名贫民窟居民的调查，我们检验了这些预测。我们发现有证据表明，声誉考虑影响了掮客的反应能力。我们同时发现，经验证据对于监测员理论的支持程度参差不齐，其突出之处表现为在许多发展中国家中，普遍认为种族主义在偏远的分配政治中没有优势。
Abstract: Studies of clientelism overwhelmingly focus on how brokers target voters with top‐down benefits during elections. Yet brokers also receive requests from voters for assistance between elections, initiating the processes through which they cultivate clients. Why are brokers responsive to the requests of some voters and not others? We provide the first study of broker preferences when evaluating client appeals. Theories emphasizing brokers as vote monitors anticipate they will prefer co‐partisans and coethnics, whose reciprocity they can best verify. Theories emphasizing brokers as vote mobilizers anticipate they will prefer residents who will maximize their reputations for efficacy. We test these expectations through a conjoint experiment with 629 Indian slum leaders, ethnographic fieldwork, and a survey of 2,199 slum residents. We find evidence of reputational considerations shaping broker responsiveness. We find mixed support for monitoring concerns, highlighted by an absence of the strong ethnic favoritism assumed to dominate distributive politics in many developing countries.
04 压制技术——互联网的可达性与国家暴力
【题目】
Repression Technology: Internet Accessibility and State Violence
【作者】
Anita R. Gohdes Hertie School of Governance
【摘要】
针对国家对互联网的动态控制与使用暴力镇压之间的关系，本文首次进行了次国家层面的分析。笔者认为，在政府提供互联网访问的地方，对数字信息交换的监视可以提供情报，使他们能够使用更具目标性的镇压形式，特别是在该政权未完全控制的地区。增加对互联网可达性的限制可能会阻碍反对派组织，但也会限制获取精确目标信息的途径，从而导致无目标镇压的增加。笔者提供了有关叙利亚冲突中屠杀的新数据，并使用监督文本分类（supervised text classification）将其区分为目标性事件和非目标性事件。笔者发现，互联网可达性的提高与目标性镇压的增加有关，而访问受限的地区将遭受更多无差别的暴力运动。研究结果对政府如何将对通信技术的选择性接入纳入其强制战略具有重要意义。
This article offers a first subnational analysis of the relationship between states' dynamic control of Internet access and their use of violent repression. I argue that where governments provide Internet access, surveillance of digital information exchange can provide intelligence that enables the use of more targeted forms of repression, in particular in areas not fully controlled by the regime. Increasing restrictions on Internet accessibility can impede opposition organization, but they limit access to information on precise targets, resulting in an increase in untargeted repression. I present new data on killings in the Syrian conflict that distinguish between targeted and untargeted events, using supervised text classification. I find that higher levels of Internet accessibility are associated with increases in targeted repression, whereas areas with limited access experience more indiscriminate campaigns of violence. The results offer important implications on how governments incorporate the selective access to communication technology into their strategies of coercion.
05 幸福与投票——来自欧洲四十年选举的证据
【题目】
Happiness and Voting: Evidence from Four Decades of Elections in Europe
【作者】
George Ward Massachusetts Institute of Technology
【摘要】
决策者对使用主观幸福（或“幸福感”）数据来衡量社会进步程度以及为公共政策提供信息和评估的兴趣与日俱增。然而，尽管基于福利政策制定的供应急剧增加，但尚不清楚选举是否对此有任何需求。在这篇文章中，笔者研究了欧洲大选的长期面板数据，发现幸福感是选举结果的有力预测指标。与经济投票文献中通常使用的标准宏观经济指标相比，国家主观幸福感测评能够解释执政党得票份额的更多差异。在横断面分析和面板分析中，考虑到主观幸福感和投票意图时，在个人层面上发现了一致的结果。
There is a growing interest among policy makers in the use of subjective well‐being (or “happiness”) data to measure societal progress, as well as to inform and evaluate public policy. Yet despite a sharp rise in the supply of well‐being‐based policymaking, it remains unclear whether there is any electoral demand for it. In this article, I study a long‐run panel of general elections in Europe and find that well‐being is a strong predictor of election results. National measures of subjective well‐being are able to explain more of the variance in governing party vote share than standard macroeconomic indicators typically used in the economic voting literature. Consistent results are found at the individual level when considering subjective well‐being and voting intentions, both in cross‐sectional and panel analyses.
06 选举中基于选择的议题重要性度量
【题目】
A Choice‐Based Measure of Issue Importance in the Electorate
【作者】
Chris Hanretty University of London
Benjamin E. Lauderdale University College London
Nick Vivyan Durham University
【摘要】
衡量公民对不同政策问题的关注程度对政治学家而言至关重要，然而现有的衡量方法存在很大的局限性。我们提供了一种新的基于调查实验与选择的方法，用于衡量选民对不同职位问题的重视程度，包括当前政治精英尚未争论的问题。我们结合了以下两方面的信息:（a）直接提问，引出受访者在不同问题上的立场；（b）联合实验，要求受访者在这些问题上权衡他们的偏好立场。应用这种方法，我们研究了34个议题在英国的相对重要性。结果表明，英国选民非常重视诸如死刑等目前还不是政治辩论主题的问题，并且更加重视与社会自由-保守主义相关的问题而非经济上的左右分歧。
Measuring how much citizens care about different policy issues is critical for political scientists, yet existing measurement approaches have significant limitations. We provide a new survey‐experimental, choice‐based approach for measuring the importance voters attach to different positional issues, including issues not currently contested by political elites. We combine information from (a) direct questions eliciting respondents' positions on different issues with (b) a conjoint experiment asking respondents to trade off departures from their preferred positions on those issues. Applying this method to study the relative importance of 34 issues in the United Kingdom, we show that British voters attach significant importance to issues like the death penalty that are not presently the subject of political debate and attach more importance to those issues associated with social liberal–conservative rather than economic left–right divisions.
07它扩展到了整个村庄——技术运用的同伴效应与外部性
【题目】
It Takes a Village: Peer Effects and Externalities in Technology Adoption
【作者】
Romain Ferrali New York University Abu Dhabi
Guy Grossman University of Pennsylvania
Melina R. Platas New York University Abu Dhabi
Jonathan Rodden Stanford University
【摘要】
社交网络是否对新政治参与形式的采用有影响？我们提出了一个正式的模型，表明当利益不确定并且与参与相关的正面外部性为积极时，在社交网络中发生的交流质量是了解一个社区是否会采取政治参与形式的核心。新形式的早期采用者可能会夸大技术的好处，导致其他人接收到的有关技术价值的信息打折扣。因此，只有当非正式制度支持真实的交流时，同伴效应才有可能出现。我们收集了16个乌干达村庄的社交网络数据，这些村庄引入了一个创新的基于移动的报告平台。与我们的模型一致，我们发现在技术采纳方面同伴效应的程度在不同村庄之间存在差异，并且还有证据支持其他可观察到的影响。社会扩散的障碍可能有助于解释世界范围内对新兴且普遍的政治传播技术的广泛接受。
Do social networks matter for the adoption of new forms of political participation? We develop a formal model showing that the quality of communication that takes place in social networks is central to understanding whether a community will adopt forms of political participation where benefits are uncertain and where there are positive externalities associated with participation. Early adopters may exaggerate benefits, leading others to discount information about the technology's value. Thus, peer effects are likely to emerge only when informal institutions support truthful communication. We collect social network data for 16 Ugandan villages where an innovative mobile‐based reporting platform was introduced. Consistent with our model, we find variation across villages in the extent of peer effects on technology adoption, as well as evidence supporting additional observable implications. Impediments to social diffusion may help explain the varied uptake of new and increasingly common political communication technologies around the world.
08 历时性政治冲突
【题目】
Political Conflict over Time
【作者】
Lanny W. Martin Bocconi University
Georg Vanberg Duke University
【摘要】
我们研究了一种选举竞争模型。在这种模型中，政客必须决定是否启动某些公共物品的提供，并在随后确定要提供多少公共物品。该模型阐明了项目的实施如何影响选举，以及相反——选举因素如何影响有关实施的决策。在明确的条件下，政客们要么实施他们不喜欢的项目，要么推迟在没有选举顾虑的情况下他们会支持的项目。该模型进一步揭示了担任公职所带来的利益会如何阻碍人们已达成广泛共识的公共产品的生产。此外，根据项目的结构与选举情形，一项政策的实施可以减轻或加剧政治冲突。
We study a model of electoral competition in which politicians must decide whether to initiate the provision of some public good and, afterward, how much of the public good to supply. The model illuminates how a project's implementation affects elections and, conversely, how electoral considerations influence decisions about implementation. Under well‐defined conditions, politicians will either implement projects that they do not like or delay projects that, absent electoral concerns, they would support. The model further reveals how the perceived benefits of holding office can impede the production of public goods about which there is broad consensus. And depending on facts about the program's structure and the electoral landscape, a policy's implementation can either mitigate or exacerbate political conflict.
09 美国可测党派敌意的政策基础
【题目】
The Policy Basis of Measured Partisan Animosity in the United States
【作者】
Lilla V. Orr Yale Universit
Gregory A. Huber Yale University
【摘要】
要理解和解决党派敌意的后果需要了解其基础。党派团体之间的敌意在多大程度上是由于对党外团体本身的不满、政策分歧或其他社会团体冲突而引起的？在许多情况下——包括现有的实验研究——这些模式在观测上是等价的。在一系列概括性的评估实验中，我们估计了当存在或不存在额外信息时共享党派关系的影响，并将这些影响作为共享政策偏好的基准。当孤立地呈现时，党派关系效应大约是共享策略偏好效应的71％。当一个独立随机的政党和政策立场同时出现时，党派关系影响显著下降约52％。但政策影响仍然很大，仅下降约10％。这些结果表明，衡量党派敌意的通常方法可能更易捕捉到程序性冲突而非基于社会身份的党派敌意。
Understanding and addressing the consequences of partisan animosity requires knowledge of its foundations. To what extent is animosity between partisan groups motivated by dislike for partisan outgroups per se, policy disagreement, or other social group conflicts? In many circumstances, including extant experimental research, these patterns are observationally equivalent. In a series of vignette evaluation experiments, we estimate effects of shared partisanship when additional information is or is not present, and we benchmark these effects against shared policy preference effects. Partisanship effects are about 71% as large as shared policy preference effects when each is presented in isolation. When an independently randomized party and policy position are presented together, partisanship effects decrease substantially, by about 52%, whereas policy effects remain large, decreasing by about 10%. These results suggest that common measures of partisan animosity may capture programmatic conflict more so than social identity–based partisan hostility.
10 美国的政治捐助者、初选和极化
【题目】
Donors, Primary Elections, and Polarization in the United States
【作者】
Jordan Kujala University of California Center Sacramento
【摘要】
笔者考察了党派捐助者对美国国会候选人在地区层面意识形态极化的影响。笔者使用2002年至2010年美国众议院选举的数据，这些数据提供了主要政党初选获胜者在与其初选、大选和党派捐助选区同样的意识形态维度上的位置。利用这一独特的数据集，笔者找到了强有力的证据证明：提名竞争中捐助者的影响力是美国两极分化的一个来源。相比于其主要或一般选民，众议院被提名人对捐助者支持的回应性更强。笔者也发现一些证据表明，缺乏大选竞争性会影响被提名人的极端性。在较安全的地区，民主党现任者似乎对捐助者有更多的回应。但是，共和党的捐助者似乎更要求接近性，而不顾地区的竞争力如何。总体而言，捐助者选区的极化作用在任何缓和作用中都占主导地位，最终导致了意识形态上极端的被提名人与国会议员的产生。
I examine the influence of partisan donors on the district‐level ideological polarization of congressional candidates in the United States. I use data from 2002–10 U.S. House elections, which provide for the placement of major party primary winners on the same ideological dimension as their primary, general election, and partisan donor constituencies. Using this unique data set, I find strong evidence that the influence of donors in nominating contests is a source of polarization in the United States. House nominees are more responsive to their donor constituencies than either their primary or general electorates. I also find some evidence that the lack of general election competition affects nominee extremity. In safer districts, Democratic incumbents appear more responsive to donors. However, Republican donors seem to demand proximity regardless of district competitiveness. Overall, the polarizing effects of donor constituencies dominate any moderating effects, resulting in ideologically extreme nominees and, ultimately, members of Congress.
11 博爱还是一种真正的宗教？宗教观念对利他主义和歧视的歧义影响的实验证据
【题目】
Universal Love or One True Religion? Experimental Evidence of the Ambivalent Effect of Religious Ideas on Altruism and Discrimination
【作者】
Lisa Hoffmann GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies & University of Hamburg
Matthias Basedau GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Simone Gobien GIGA German Institute of Global and Area Studies
Sebastian Prediger KfW Development Bank
【摘要】
与世俗化理论的预期相反，宗教在社会上仍然很重要，并以多种方式影响着政治——尤其是在宗教团体之间的冲突方面。从理论上讲，宗教可以增进利他主义，但相信一个人的信仰的优越性可能会导致群体间的歧视与相关的冲突。然而，之前的研究结果仍然没有定论，因为具体的宗教观念几乎没有得到验证。在本文中，我们认为宗教观念的内容与群体间的歧视存在因果关系。因此，我们检验了两种对立的、突出的宗教观念对利他主义和歧视的影响：博爱和一种真实宗教的观念。通过加纳和坦桑尼亚的基督徒和穆斯林之间的独裁者博弈(dictator games)，我们发现了因果关系：虽然一种真正宗教的观念会增加群体间的歧视，但博爱的观念却会促进平等待遇。这其中的政策含义是显而易见的——促进宽容的宗教思想似乎是避免冲突的关键。
Contrary to the expectations of secularization theory, religion remains socially important and affects politics in multiple ways—especially regarding conflict between religious communities. Theoretically, religion can increase altruism, but belief in the superiority of one's faith may facilitate intergroup discrimination and related conflict. Previous findings remain inconclusive, however, as specific religious ideas have hardly been tested. In this article, we argue that the content of religious ideas has causal effects on intergroup discrimination. We hence test the impact of two opposing, prominent religious ideas on altruism and discrimination: universal love and the notion of one true religion. Conducting dictator games with Christians and Muslims in Ghana and Tanzania, we find causal effects: Whereas the idea of one true religion increases intergroup discrimination, that of universal love fosters equal treatment. The policy implications hereof are obvious—promoting tolerant religious ideas seems crucial to avoiding conflict.
12 政策实施的关怀公共伦理
【题目】
A Public Ethics of Care for Policy Implementation
【作者】
Daniel Engster The University of Houston
【摘要】
自由主义和共和主义的政治理论家对公共行政或政策执行的理论并没有给予太多关注。在一定程度上，他们倾向于认可一种理想的典型的韦伯式官僚主义模式和非人格化的道德规范，以限制街头自由裁量权(street‐level discretion)。本文认为，韦伯式的官僚伦理事实上在街头执法中占据主导地位，但与自由主义和共和主义的核心价值观并不一致。为了使法律和政策以一种与自由主义和共和主义原则相一致的方式得以实施，本文提出了一种替代的公共伦理——关怀公共伦理。本文以早期研究为基础，认为关怀公共伦理是对自由主义和共和主义理想的重要补充，也是韦伯式官僚伦理的更好替代方案，能够以有限的、响应性的、非主导的方式在街头执行法律和政策。
Liberal and republican political theorists have not paid much attention to a theory of public administration or policy implementation. To the extent that they have, they have tended to endorse an ideal‐typical Weberian model of bureaucracy and impersonal ethics of rules to limit street‐level discretion. This article argues that the Weberian bureaucratic ethics is inconsistent with core liberal and republican values and, in fact, dominating at the street level. In order for laws and policies to be implemented in a manner consistent with liberal and republican principles, an alternative public ethics is proposed—a public ethics of care. Building on earlier research, this article argues that a public ethics of care represents an important supplement to liberal and republican ideals, as well as a better alternative to Weberian bureaucratic ethics, for implementing laws and policies at the street level in limited and responsive, nondominating ways.
13 多机构决策
【题目】
Policymaking with Multiple Agencies
【作者】
Peter Bils Princeton University
【摘要】
有关政策问题的权限通常分散在多个政府机构中。在本文中，笔者研究了国会何时应授权给多个机构以及共享的监管空间如何使机构决策复杂化。为此，笔者提出了一项两家机构分散决策的正式模型，该模型将信息获取和信息共享结合在一起，描述了立法者应该或不应该选择多个机构的情况。各机构理想点之间的较大分歧扭曲了信息共享和政策选择，但也可能增加信息获取的数量。如果两家机构之间在政策上存在强烈分歧，则国会通过将权力下放给两家机构可以取得更好的政策结果。但是，如果各机构具有相似的政策偏好，则国会可能希望在一个机构内巩固权力，因为这种方法可以减少“搭便车”现象，并利用了规模收益。
Authority over related policy issues is often dispersed among multiple government agencies. In this article, I study when Congress should delegate to multiple agencies, and how shared regulatory space complicates agency decision making. To do so, I develop a formal model of decentralized policymaking with two agencies that incorporates information acquisition and information sharing, delineating situations where legislators should and should not prefer multiple agencies. Greater divergence between the agencies' ideal points distorts information sharing and policy choices, but it may increase the amount of information acquisition. Congress achieves better policy outcomes by delegating authority to both agencies if the agencies have strong policy disagreements. If the agencies have similar policy preferences, however, then Congress may want to consolidate authority within one agency because this approach mitigates free‐riding and takes advantage of returns to scale.
14 温和与能力——政党的意识形态如何塑造期望值与声誉
【题目】
Moderation and Competence: How a Party's Ideological Position Shapes Its Valence Reputation
【作者】
Robert Johns University of Essex
Ann‐Kristin Kölln Aarhus University
【摘要】
综合几项选举行为和政党政治的研究，我们认为在意识形态上的温和将提高政党被感知的能力。不那么激进的政党被认为更愿意妥协，对可实现的目标更现实，也不太容易采取简单的解决方案。根据政党背景进行的一项由约2000名英国公民代表作为样本的联合实验结果显示，虽然意识形态倾向不会带来任何代价，但任何明显的左翼或右翼立场都会削弱一个政党被感知的执政能力。当对受访者与有关政党的意识形态亲近度进行控制时，这种效应持续存在，而且似乎会通过上述三种机制——尤其是妥协意愿——发挥作用。这些发现对政党策略和投票研究都有重要的意义，其强调了意识形态的温和是能带来选举收益的一个关键渠道。
We combine several strands of research from electoral behavior and party politics to suggest that ideological moderation will boost a party's perceived competence. Less radical parties are seen as readier to compromise, more realistic about what can be achieved, and less prone to simplistic solutions. The results of conjoint experiments with party profiles show that while an ideological leaning carries no cost, any appreciably left‐ or right‐wing position eroded a party's perceived competence among a representative sample of around 2,000 British citizens. This effect holds when controlling for respondents’ ideological proximity to the party in question, and it looks to operate through all three of the proposed mechanisms suggested above—especially willingness to compromise. These findings have important implications both for party strategy and for voting research, highlighting a key channel through which ideological moderation yields electoral gains.
15 针对美国LGBT群体的官僚回应性研究
【题目】
Bureaucratic Responsiveness to LGBT Americans
【作者】
Kenneth Lowande University of Michigan
Andrew Proctor University of Minnesota
【摘要】
2015年，美国同性伴侣获得了婚姻权利。然而，种种官僚违规的奇闻（以偏见或拒绝签发执照的形式）增加了法律上的婚姻平等无法在实践中导向平等的可能性。通过一项全国范围的针对美国地方结婚证授予官员的审计实验，我们对这一问题进行了调查。这些官员在所服务的选区以及获选方式上各不相同，这使我们能够检验有关官僚回应性的长期假设。总体而言，我们发现没有证据表明存在对同性伴侣系统歧视的证据——无论其在回应性衡量、制度、意识形态或先前的州法制史上有何区别。但我们发现，在同性伴侣中，官员们往往对女同性恋伴侣表现出更强的回应性。与警务和联邦援助计划等其他政府服务领域的证据相反，我们发现负责提供婚姻服务的官僚几乎不存在歧视的迹象。
Marriage rights were extended to same‐sex couples in the United States in 2015. However, anecdotes of bureaucratic noncompliance (in the form of bias or denial of license issuance) raise the possibility that de jure marriage equality has not led to equality in practice. We investigate this by conducting a nationwide audit experiment of local‐level marriage license–granting officials in the United States. These officials vary in the constituencies they serve, as well as how they are selected, allowing us to evaluate long‐standing hypotheses about bureaucratic responsiveness. Overall, we find no evidence of systematic discrimination against same‐sex couples—regardless of responsiveness measure, institutions, ideology, or prior state legal history. We find, however, that among same‐sex couples, officials tended to be more responsive to lesbian couples. In contrast to evidence in other areas of service provision, such as policing and federal assistance programs, we find bureaucrats tasked with provision of marriage services show little evidence of discrimination.
16 有时过犹不及——审查制度、新闻造假与1989年东德的反对运动
【题目】
Sometimes Less Is More: Censorship, News Falsification, and Disapproval in 1989 East Germany
【作者】
Christian Gläßel University of Mannheim
Katrin Paula University of Mannheim
【摘要】
更多的媒体审查是否意味着更高的政权稳定？我们认为，审查制度可能会导致对审查制度的大规模反对。特别是当公民可以通过其他信息来源伪造媒体内容时，我们预期审查制度会适得其反。通过专制政权——德意志民主共和国（GDR）的经验证据，我们检验了我们的理论论点。结果表明，东德政权在1989年革命前的几周内针对该国移民危机的新闻审查制度如何激起了人们的愤怒。通过将东德国家电视台每周原始的批准调查与西德新闻节目的每日内容数据结合于一项准实验设计中，我们发现如果受众能够通过西方电视上自相矛盾的报道发现错误信息，他们就会拒绝审查制度。我们的发现对研究当代专制政权中的审查制度、外部民主促进活动以及旨在破坏传统新闻业信任的运动具有重要意义。
Does more media censorship imply more regime stability? We argue that censorship may cause mass disapproval for censoring regimes. In particular, we expect that censorship backfires when citizens can falsify media content through alternative sources of information. We empirically test our theoretical argument in an autocratic regime—the German Democratic Republic (GDR). Results demonstrate how exposed state censorship on the country's emigration crisis fueled outrage in the weeks before the 1989 revolution. Combining original weekly approval surveys on GDR state television and daily content data of West German news programs with a quasi‐experimental research design, we show that recipients disapproved of censorship if they were able to detect misinformation through conflicting reports on Western television. Our findings have important implications for the study of censoring systems in contemporary autocracies, external democracy promotion, and campaigns aimed at undermining trust in traditional journalism.
17 作为因变量的身份——美国人如何通过转变身份适应政治
【题目】
Identity as Dependent Variable: How Americans Shift Their Identities to Align with Their Politics
【作者】
Patrick J. Egan New York University
【摘要】
政治科学通常将诸如种族、宗教和性等身份属性视为因果关系链中“不可动摇的动力”。笔者假设，随着党派和意识形态作为社会身份的重要性在美国日益显著，再加上美国两大政治联盟在人口统计上的独特性不断上升，正导致一些美国人进入自我归类和去人格化的过程。在这一过程中，他们将自己的身份向其政治团体的人口统计学原型转变。通过对一项追踪过去4年内身份和政治联系的代表性面板数据集进行分析，笔者证实了有少数但重要的美国人参与了种族、宗教、性取向和阶级等方面的身份转换过程。这些转换可以由他们的党派和意识形态进行预测，从而使他们的身份与政治取向保持一致。这些发现丰富并复杂化了我们对身份与政治之间关系的理解，并提醒我们在将身份视作不变现象时要谨慎。
Political science generally treats identities such as ethnicity, religion, and sexuality as “unmoved movers” in the chain of causality. I hypothesize that the growing salience of partisanship and ideology as social identities in the United States, combined with the increasing demographic distinctiveness of the nation's two political coalitions, is leading some Americans to engage in a self‐categorization and depersonalization process in which they shift their identities toward the demographic prototypes of their political groups. Analyses of a representative panel data set that tracks identities and political affiliations over a 4‐year span confirm that small but significant shares of Americans engage in identity switching regarding ethnicity, religion, sexual orientation, and class that is predicted by partisanship and ideology in their pasts, bringing their identities into alignment with their politics. These findings enrich and complicate our understanding of the relationship between identity and politics and suggest caution in treating identities as unchanging phenomena.
18 大规模选举和地方政府中的少数派代表
【题目】
At‐Large Elections and Minority Representation in Local Government
【作者】
Carolyn Abott St. John's University
Asya Magazinnik Massachusetts Institute of Technology
【摘要】
尽管长期以来，在法律上一直存在进行大规模选举（At‐Large Elections）可能会压制少数派代表的指控，但在美国地方政府产生方式中，这仍然是占主导地位的选举制度。此外，围绕大规模选举对弱势群体政治成功的影响，当下大量的实证文献仍存在分歧。利用2001年《加州投票权法案》提供的一种新的识别策略，我们对大规模选举和小选区选举(ward election)对少数族裔当选的影响进行了偶然与因果的估计，从而调和了该文献中相互矛盾的发现。我们发现，在拉丁裔占投票人口比例足够大的地区，以及拉丁裔隔离聚居的地区中，转换会产生显著的积极影响。当这些条件不满足时，我们总是看到零估计效应。
Despite a long history of legal challenges alleging that elections conducted at‐large suppress minority representation, this remains the dominant electoral system in local governments throughout the United States. Moreover, a large empirical literature remains divided over the present‐day impact of at‐large elections on the political success of underrepresented groups. We reconcile the competing findings in this literature by providing contingent, causal estimates of the effect of conversion from at‐large to ward elections on minority officeholding, using a novel identification strategy afforded by the California Voting Rights Act of 2001. We find a dramatic positive effect of conversion in districts where Latinos constitute a sufficiently large share of the voting population, and in large and residentially segregated districts. When these conditions are not satisfied, we consistently see null estimated effects.
编译：俞驰韬
审校：周煜洋
相关阅读：
顶刊前沿 |《美国政治科学杂志》2020年第2期（ American Journal of Political Science）
编辑：周佳银
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
点击“阅读原文”，输入“nfoc”，可免费获取本期英文原文哦~