国际顶刊 |《比较政治研究》2021年第1-2期
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本期国际化部为大家带来了《比较政治研究》2021年第1-2期文章编译。
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PART 1
期刊简介
Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）是美国SAGE出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1968年，期刊每月出版一次，主要探讨比较政治学相关内容，期刊现任主编为明尼苏达大学教授David Samuels。过去五年的影响因子为4.262，在176个政治科学类期刊中排名第12。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：比较政治学理论研究、全球比较政治学研究、国内比较政治学研究等。
PART 2
期刊目录
Chaos on Campus: Universities and Mass Political Protest
校园中的混乱：大学与大众政治抗议
Attitudes Toward Migrants in a Highly Impacted Economy: Evidence From the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan
经济受到严重影响的东道国民众对移民的态度：源自约旦境内叙利亚难民危机的证据
Campaign Effects and the Elusive Swing Voter in Modern Machine Politics
竞选效应与现代机器政治中难以捉摸的摇摆选民
Incentives for Organizational Participation: A Recruitment Experiment in Mexico
参与民间社会组织的动机：墨西哥的招募实验
Ethnic Coalitions and the Logic of Political Survival in Authoritarian Regimes
民族联盟与威权制度下的政治生存逻辑
Network Ties and the Politics of Renationalization: Embeddedness, Political-Business Relations, and Renationalization in Post-Milosevic Serbia
“关系网的纽带”与再国有化的政治：后米洛舍维奇时代下塞尔维亚的（政治）嵌入、政商关系和再国有化
The Gender Gap in Political Clientelism: Problem-Solving Networks and the Division of Political Work in Argentina
庇护主义中的性别差异：阿根廷解决问题网络及政治工作的区分
Partisanship and Autocratization: Polarization, Power Asymmetry, and Partisan Social Identities in Turkey
党派主义与独裁化：土耳其的两极分化、权力不对称及党派社会身份
Electoral Preferences Among Multiethnic Voters in Africa
非洲多民族混血选民的选举偏好
The Legislative Effects of Campaign Personalization An Analysis on the Legislative Behavior of Successful German Constituency Candidates
个性化竞选的立法效果：针对德国选区竞选成功的候选人的立法行为分析
Gender and Dynastic Political Selection
性别与世家政治选择
Measuring Populism in Political Parties: Appraisal of a New Approach
衡量政党中的民粹主义：对于新方法的评估
PART 3
精选译文
01 校园中的混乱：大学与大众政治抗议
【题目】
Chaos on Campus: Universities and Mass Political Protest
【作者】
Sirianne Dahlum, Tore Wig
【摘要】
历史证据表明，大学是政治抗议的温床。然而，大学与政治抗议之间关系的普遍性和因果关系从未被量化。本文通过1991-2016年期间非洲和中美洲62个国家中大学及抗议事件的地点与特征的地理编码信息，来研究大学是否会引起政治抗议。分析表明，大学建制会使抗议活动增加。我们运用双重差分和固定效应模型框架，利用次国家网络单元内的大学随时间发生的变化来估计大学对抗议活动的影响。根据我们的分析，大学数量更多的地方也会经历更多的抗议活动。我们进行了不同的测试，在排除大学建立的地点所特有的混淆性趋势后，我们作出了因果关系解释。此外，我们还提供了描述性证据来解释与大学相关联的抗议活动的性质，表明它们出现在独裁国家的可能性较大，以及在大学所在地发生的抗议活动更有可能涉及民主和人权。本文针对大学在推动抗争性集体行动中所起到的作用，提出了重要的综合性意见。
History suggests universities are hotbeds of political protest. However, the generality and causal nature of this relationship has never been quantified. This article investigates whether universities give rise to political protest, drawing on geocoded information on the location and characteristics of universities and protest events in the 1991–2016 period, at the subnational level in 62 countries in Africa and Central America. Our analysis indicates that university establishments increase protest. We use a difference-in-differences and fixed-effect framework leveraging the temporal variation in universities within subnational grid-cells to estimate the effect of universities on protest. Our analysis indicates that localities with increases in number of universities experience more protest. We suggest a causal interpretation, after performing different tests to evaluate whether this reflects confounding trends specific to locations that establish universities, finding no support for this. We also provide descriptive evidence on the nature of university-related protests, showing that they are more likely to emerge in dictatorships and that protests in university locations are more likely to concern democracy and human rights. These findings yield important general insights into universities’ role as drivers of contentious collective action.
02 经济受到严重影响的东道国民众对移民的态度：源自约旦境内叙利亚难民危机的证据
【题目】
Attitudes Toward Migrants in a Highly Impacted Economy: Evidence From the Syrian Refugee Crisis in Jordan
【作者】
Ala’ Alrababa’h, Andrea Dillon, Scott Williamson, Jens Hainmueller, Dominik Hangartner, Jeremy Weinstein
【摘要】
随着国际流动人数创下历史新高，越来越多的文献探讨了公众对移民态度的驱动因素。然而，迄今为止，大多数研究仍集中在发达国家。可是，发达国家的移民数量相对较少，同时吸收容纳移民的能力更强。我们通过调查拥有最大比例难民的发展中国家——约旦的公众对叙利亚移民的态度来解决样本偏差的问题。我们的分析表明，无论在个体还是群体层面，当地人的反移民情绪与其受到由难民危机带来的经济影响无关。此外，用定性证据验证的嵌入式联合实验表明，相比起经济，民众对人道主义和文化的考量是更为重要的影响因素。综上所述，我们的研究结果削弱了在个体和社会层面对于经济的考量作为反移民态度的关键驱动因素的论点，并解释了当东道国和移民的文化相似时，人道主义的动机将如何维持民众对难民的支持。
With international migration at a record high, a burgeoning literature has explored the drivers of public attitudes toward migrants. However, most studies to date have focused on developed countries, which have relatively fewer migrants and more capacity to absorb them. We address this sample bias by conducting a survey of public attitudes toward Syrians in Jordan, a developing country with one of the largest shares of refugees. Our analysis indicates that neither personal- nor community-level exposure to the economic impact of the refugee crisis is associated with antimigrant sentiments among natives. Furthermore, an embedded conjoint experiment validated with qualitative evidence demonstrates the relative importance of humanitarian and cultural concerns over economic ones. Taken together, our findings weaken the case for egocentric and sociotropic economic concerns as critical drivers of antimigrant attitudes and demonstrate how humanitarian motives can sustain support for refugees when host and migrant cultures are similar.
03 竞选效应与现代机器政治中难以捉摸的摇摆选民
【题目】
Campaign Effects and the Elusive Swing Voter in Modern Machine Politics
【作者】
Kenneth F. Greene
【摘要】
“选票购买”的尝试是否是成功的？许多社会科学研究都认为，政治机器以专业的方式将公民转化为客户，从而破坏了民主的核心。基于选票行为理论的见解，我认为标准的党派竞选活动会降低“选票购买”的效率。政治机器面临着一个目标定位的问题：地方中间人通过长期的标记来识别出优质客户，但各类竞选活动会以这些中间人无法察觉的方式来改变许多公民的选票态度，最终导致目标定位错误。选票购买对于那些不受竞选活动影响的选民仍然有效，但在竞选活动有影响力的地方，此类选民并不多见。本文利用墨西哥2000年和2012年选举的面板调查，通过直接询问和列表实验的方式，依靠现有和新的估计方法，对竞选活动的影响进行了不同的测量，进而对“选票购买”的衡量方式进行了检验。与现有的其他文献相比，本研究的结果对新民主国家的选举质量持更为乐观的态度。
Are vote-choice buying attempts successful? Much research across the social sciences argues that political machines expertly turn citizens into clients, undermining core aspects of democracy. Using insights from behavioral theories of vote choice, I argue that standard partisan campaigns can diminish vote-choice buying’s efficiency. Machines face a targeting problem: Local brokers identify good clients using long-term markers but then campaigns shift many citizens’ vote-relevant attitudes in ways that brokers cannot detect, leading to targeting errors. Vote-choice buying remains effective on recipients who are unmoved by the campaigns, but this group is small where campaigns are influential. Tests using panel surveys from Mexico’s 2000 and 2012 elections measure vote-buying attempts with direct questions and list experiments, employ various measures of campaign influence, and rely on new and existing estimation techniques. The findings yield a more optimistic view of the quality of elections in new democracies than current literature implies.
04 参与民间社会组织的动机：墨西哥的招募实验
【题目】
Incentives for Organizational Participation: A Recruitment Experiment in Mexico
【作者】
Brian Palmer-Rubin, Candelaria Garay, Mathias Poertner
【摘要】
强大的民间社会的存在被视为民主国家所应当拥有的一部分，但如何激发公民加入组织的积极性仍是一个重要的议题。本文就公民加入利益团体的条件提出了新的实验性证据。我们向墨西哥两个州的1400名公民发放了传单，宣传当地新的利益组织。这些传单中包含了四个随机选择的招募诉求。证据表明，由国家赞助的中间商与针对当地公共产品的需求创造了有效的招募吸引力。在事先与民间社会组织接触过的受调查者中，由国家赞助的中间商对他们的吸引力尤其明显，这一点支持了我们对“特殊社会化”效应的假设，即组织经验会带来对选择性的物质利益更为强烈的反应。我们的研究结果表明，在一定条件下，利益组织不但不会产生他律规范，反而会强化成员的个人主义倾向。
While the presence of a strong civil society is recognized as desirable for democracies, an important question is what motivates citizens to join organizations. This article presents novel experimental evidence on the conditions under which citizens join interest organizations. We presented 1,400 citizens in two Mexican states with fliers promoting a new local interest organization. These fliers contain one of four randomly selected recruitment appeals. We find evidence that both brokerage of state patronage and demand-making for local public goods are effective recruitment appeals. The effect for patronage brokerage is especially pronounced among respondents with prior organizational contact, supporting our hypothesis of a “particularistic socialization” effect wherein organizational experience is associated with greater response to selective material benefits. Our findings suggest that under some conditions, rather than generating norms of other-regarding, interest organizations can reinforce members’ individualistic tendencies.
05 民族联盟与威权制度下的政治生存逻辑
【题目】
Ethnic Coalitions and the Logic of Political Survival in Authoritarian Regimes
【作者】
Janina Beiser-McGrath, Nils W. Metternich
【摘要】
为什么即便危及其政权的生存，威权政府仍会排斥族裔群体？现有的观点可概括为将对族裔的排斥归因于民族联盟的形成。我们认为，民族统治集团和潜在联盟成员之间存在相互承诺的问题，进而形成权力平衡的民族联盟。然而，在具有能够缓解可信承诺问题的机构的威权政权之下，权力相对不均衡的联盟更容易形成。我们使用了民族群体及其权力地位的数据，通过k-adic条件逻辑回归，检验了我们的论点。我们认为，在独裁政体中，执政的族群更有可能塑造并维持民族联盟，根据人口数量来平衡联盟中的成员。此外，我们还提供了一些证据来证明维持联盟平衡的程度受制于威权政权的类型。
Why do authoritarian governments exclude ethnic groups if this jeopardizes their regime survival? We generalize existing arguments that attribute exclusion dynamics to ethnic coalition formation. We argue that a mutual commitment problem, between the ethnic ruling group and potential coalition members, leads to power-balanced ethnic coalitions. However, authoritarian regimes with institutions that mitigate credible commitment problems facilitate the formation of coalitions that are less balanced in power. We test our arguments with a k-adic conditional logit approach, using data on ethnic groups and their power status. We demonstrate that in autocracies, the ruling ethnic group is more likely to form and maintain coalitions that balance population sizes among all coalition members. Furthermore, we provide evidence that the extent to which balancing occurs is conditional on authoritarian regime type.
06 “关系网的纽带”与再国有化的政治：后米洛舍维奇时代下塞尔维亚的（政治）嵌入、政商关系和再国有化
【题目】
Network Ties and the Politics of Renationalization: Embeddedness, Political-Business Relations, and Renationalization in Post-Milosevic Serbia
【作者】
Milos Resimic
【摘要】
本文基于2002年至2011年间被私有化的塞尔维亚企业的原始大样本数据集和定性证据，通过生存模型应用于网络数据分析企业重新国有化的政治基础。我以有关（政治）嵌入的学术研究为基础，提出了以下假设：重新国有化的过程受到了以企业嵌入政治与所有制网络的不同模式的影响。与以往国家俘获文献的预期相反，我发现有政治联系的企业重新国有化的可能性较大；而由国内企业所有者持有的企业，比起非所有者拥有的企业，重新国有化的可能性则较小。我将此发现进一步理论化为两种逻辑关系：一、榨取逻辑，即政治关联企业的再国有化要么是榨取的意外结果，要么是掠夺的意外结果；二、互惠逻辑，即国内企业所有者更有可能避免再次国有化，因其可以借此向政党提供好处。
Based on an original large-N data set of Serbian firms privatized between 2002 and 2011, and qualitative evidence, this article applies survival modeling to network data to analyze the political foundations of renationalization. I build on embeddedness scholarship and hypothesize that renationalization is influenced by varying patterns of embeddedness of firms in political and ownership networks. In contrast with expectations of the state capture literature, I find that politically connected firms are more likely to be renationalized than non-politicized ones, whereas firms owned by domestic corporate owners are less likely to be renationalized than those owned by non-corporate owners. I theorize my findings as the logic of extraction, showing that renationalization in politically connected firms happens either as an unintended consequence of extraction or of predation, and as the logic of reciprocity, which demonstrates that domestic corporate owners are more likely to avoid renationalization because they can offer favors to political parties.
07 庇护主义中的性别差异：阿根廷用于解决问题的政治网络及政治工作分工
【题目】
The Gender Gap in Political Clientelism: Problem-Solving Networks and the Division of Political Work in Argentina
【作者】
Mariela Daby
【摘要】
现有的庇护关系主义相关文献已经注意到了用于解决政治问题的网络的重要性，但其具有性别差异的本质仍被忽略。与通常的假设相反，本文认为，相比较男性，女性政治掮客利用庇护关系主义建立、扩大及维护政治网络的机会较少。首先，女性掮客的工作以儿童为中心，因而对无投票权人群进行了大量投资；于是，政治工作的性别化分工减少了女性组建拥护者群体的机会。第二，女性掮客在政治网络之外分配资源的能力较差，因而减少了她们扩大选区规模的机会。第三，女性掮客在对那些在政治活动中不劳而获的人群进行惩罚时会面临更多的困难，因而限制了她们招募新追随者的能力。本文通过在阿根廷二十年的田野调查，研究了政治庇护主义的性别差距以及政治工作的分工对政治代表的影响。本文将说明这些机会上的差异，是如何随着时间的推移而逐渐转化为女性掮客的政治代表性的不足与民主质量的低下。
The literature on clientelism has recognized the importance of problem-solving networks, but ignored their gendered nature. Contrary to what is often assumed, I argue that female brokers have fewer opportunities to use clientelism for building, enlarging, and sustaining political networks than male brokers. First, I find that female brokers invest heavily in a nonvoting constituency because their work centers on children. The gendered division of political work hence reduces women’s chances of building a following. Second, female brokers are less able to distribute resources beyond their political network, diminishing their chances of enlarging the size of their constituency. Third, female brokers have a harder time punishing those who receive benefits but fail to participate in politics, limiting their ability to recruit new followers. Drawing on two decades of fieldwork in Argentina, this article studies the gender gap in political clientelism and the consequences of the division of political work for political representation. The article shows how these differences in opportunities, over time, translate into a political underrepresentation of female brokers and an impoverished quality of democracy.
08 党派主义与独裁化：土耳其的两极分化、权力不对称及党派社会身份
【题目】
Partisanship and Autocratization: Polarization, Power Asymmetry, and Partisan Social Identities in Turkey
【作者】
Melis G. Laebens, Aykut Öztürk
【摘要】
虽然党派理论是在民主背景之下发展起来的，但政党在独裁选举制度中同样重要。我们通过调查数据来分析土耳其独裁选举政体下的党派关系，并发现党派关系是普遍的、强烈的和有影响力的。我们使用了党派身份量表来衡量党派关系并说明，与民主国家相同，独裁选举政体中的党派关系的强弱与政治态度和行动有关。但与民主政体不同，独裁政体中的执政党通过庇护关系来动员支持者的超强能力，使得执政党党员的党性与政治行动之间的关联性较弱。我们发现，党派身份与认为其他党派可能对个人产生威胁的看法密切相关，而且对于这种威胁的担心在政治分野的两侧都很普遍。本文通过土耳其所经历的威权化过程来解释这一研究发现。本文对于学界的贡献在于强调了将政权动态融入党派研究的潜力。
Although theories of partisanship were developed for the democratic context, partisanship can be important in electoral autocracies as well. We use survey data to analyze partisanship in an electoral autocracy, Turkey, and find that partisanship is pervasive, strong, and consequential. Using the Partisan Identity Scale to measure partisanship, we show that, like in democracies, partisanship strength is associated with political attitudes and action. Unlike in democracies, however, the ruling party’s superior ability to mobilize supporters through clientelistic linkages makes the association between partisanship and political action weaker for ruling party partisans. We find that partisan identities are tightly connected to the perception that other parties may threaten one’s well-being, and that such fears are widespread on both sides of the political divide. We interpret our findings in light of the autocratization process Turkey went through. Our contribution highlights the potential of integrating regime dynamics in studies of partisanship.
09 非洲多民族混血选民的选举偏好
【题目】
Electoral Preferences Among Multiethnic Voters in Africa
【作者】
Boniface Dulani, Adam S. Harris, Jeremy Horowitz , Happy Kayuni
【摘要】
通婚正在改变非洲的种族面貌。在非洲大陆的一些国家，现已有超过五分之一的婚姻跨越了种族的界限。因此，越来越多的多族裔公民来自于不同的家族血统。然而，非洲混血人口的增长可能以各种潜在的方式对政治产生深远影响。在本文中，我们将重点研究一种可能存在的影响——即在根据种族集团投票普遍存在的情况之下，多民族（混血）选民的选举偏好。根据马拉维和肯尼亚的调查数据，我们发现，与单一民族的选民相比，拥有多民族血统的选民支持其申明自己所属的民族群体相关的政党的可能性更小。本文概述了与身份测量、身份和偏好之间的联系以及与社会网络等多方面有关的几种可能的解释。
Intermarriage is transforming Africa’s ethnic landscape. In several countries on the continent more than a fifth of all marriages now cut across ethnic lines. As a result, there is a growing population of multiethnic citizens who descend from diverse family lineages. The growth of Africa’s mixed population has the potential to affect politics in a variety of potentially far-reaching ways. In this article, we focus on one possible implication by examining the electoral preferences of multiethnic voters in contexts where ethnic bloc voting is commonplace. Drawing on survey data from Malawi and Kenya, we find that mixed individuals are less likely to support the party associated with their stated ethnic group, relative to mono-ethnics. We outline several possible explanations related to identity measurement, the link between identities and preferences, and social networks.
10 个性化竞选的立法效果：针对德国选区竞选成功的候选人的立法行为分析
【题目】
The Legislative Effects of Campaign Personalization An Analysis on the Legislative Behavior of Successful German Constituency Candidates
【作者】
Thomas Zittel, Dominic Nyhuis
【摘要】
个性化的竞选风格在当代各级政治选举活动中越来越重要。可是，现有研究对于这种方式如何影响（采取这种方式）获得成功的候选人担任公职后的行为知之甚少。本文旨在从经验和理论上填补这一空白。本文表明，选举个性化的结果是立法个性化；开展个性化竞选活动的议员更有可能在唱名投票中唱反调，并在会场上采取独立立场。本文的研究基于一个全新的数据集，该数据集将2009年德国联邦大选中候选人竞选风格相关调查证据与第17届德国联邦议院（2009-2013年）获得成功的候选人的立法行为匹配起来。通过将竞选和立法领域的数据结合起来，我们得以进一步探索选举个性化的更广泛后果。
Personalized campaign styles are of increasing importance in contemporary election campaigns at all levels of politics. Surprisingly, we know little about their implications for the behavior of successful candidates once they take public office. This paper aims to fill this gap in empirical and theoretical ways. It shows that campaign personalization results in legislative personalization. Legislators that ran personalized campaigns are found to be more likely to deviate in roll call votes and to take independent positions on the floor. These findings result from a novel dataset that matches survey evidence on candidates’ campaign styles in the 2009 German Federal Elections with the legislative behavior of successful candidates in the 17th German Bundestag (2009–2013). Combining data from the campaign and legislative arenas allows us to explore the wider consequences of campaign personalization.
11 性别与世家政治选择
【题目】
Gender and Dynastic Political Selection
【作者】
Olle Folke, Johanna Rickne, Daniel M. Smith
【摘要】
纵观历史时间与空间，女性似乎比男性更有可能在近亲或配偶的帮助下进入政界。为了解释女性代表中此类世家偏向持续存在，本文提出一套理论，将政治选择的决定与各社会群体的信息不平等结合起来。有世家关系的候选人通常受益于其前任的既定声誉，而这些反映高质量的信号对政治新人（如女性）尤其重要。本文使用来自12个民主国家立法机构层面的数据以及来自爱尔兰和瑞典的候选人层面的数据以支持上述观点，即世家关系对女性的帮助更大。同样，相比起男性，前任的质量可能对女性继任者进入政界及她们获得的评价更为相关。随着时间发展（更多的女性进入政界）不断降低的世家偏向，以及瑞典各市镇性别配额的不同影响均反映了信息不平等的作用。
Throughout history and across countries, women appear more likely than men to enter politics on the heels of a close family relative or spouse. To explain this dynastic bias in women’s representation, we introduce a theory that integrates political selection decisions with informational inequalities across social groups. Candidates with dynastic ties benefit from the established reputations of their predecessors, but these signals of quality are more important to political newcomers such as women. Legislator-level data from twelve democracies and candidate-level data from Ireland and Sweden support the idea that dynastic ties are differentially more helpful to women, and that the quality of predecessors may be more relevant for the entry and evaluation of female successors than their male counterparts. The role of informational inequalities is also reflected in the declining dynastic bias over time (as more women enter politics), and in the differential effect of a gender quota across Swedish municipalities.
12 衡量政党中的民粹主义：对于新方法的评估
【题目】
Measuring Populism in Political Parties: Appraisal of a New Approach
【作者】
Maurits J. Meijers, Andrej Zaslove
【摘要】
民粹主义已成为政治学研究中一个普遍的概念。然而，一个核心和基本的问题仍未得到回答：欧洲众政党间，哪些政党更为民粹？尽管关于政党民粹主义的研究越来越丰富，但是数据支持仍然不足，比如，缺乏有效且准确地衡量政党民粹主义的数据、能够识别民粹主义多个维度构成的数据或全面覆盖欧洲所有政党的数据。本文首先对现有方法存在的问题进行评估。其次，我们认为，政党的民粹主义应该作为一种潜在建构来衡量，并基于此提倡一种新的方法，即利用专家调查来操作、测量政党的民粹主义。通过使用涵盖28个欧洲国家250个政党的 "民粹主义与政党专项调查"，我们认为，民粹主义最适合以多维度及连续的方式来衡量。我们随后对本文所述方法在政治学实证分析方面的优势作出说明。
Populism has become a pervasive concept in political science research. However, a central and basic question remains unanswered: which European parties are more populist than others? Despite the increasing wealth of studies on populism in parties, we lack data that measures populism in political parties in a valid and precise manner, that recognizes that populism is constituted by multiple dimensions, and that ensures full coverage of all parties in Europe. In this article, we first appraise the weaknesses of existing approaches. Arguing that parties’ populism should be measured as a latent construct, we then advocate a new approach to operationalizing and measuring populism in political parties using expert surveys. Relying on the Populism and Political Parties Expert Survey spanning 250 political parties in 28 European countries, we show that populism is best measured in a multi-dimensional and continuous manner. We subsequently illustrate the advantages of our approach for empirical analysis in political science.
翻 译：宋文佳 欧阳博雅
校 对：宋文佳 欧阳博雅
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编辑：余亚维
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