国际顶刊 |《比较政治研究》2021年第3-4期
让每一个人自由地理解政治
让世界各地的学人成果互联互通
让政治学人的核心关切得到传播
让闪烁的政治学人共享这片充满思考和情怀的天空
政治学人始终在路上
本期国际化部为大家带来了《比较政治研究》（Comparative Political Studies）2021年第3-4期文章编译。
编译属国际化部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言；如有转载请注明出处。学术公益是一条很长的路，我们诚邀您同行，欢迎留言您希望编译的政治学期刊，感谢您的支持。
PART 1
期刊简介
Comparative Political Studies（比较政治研究）是美国SAGE出版社旗下学术期刊，创刊于1968年，期刊每月出版一次，主要探讨比较政治学相关内容，期刊现任主编为明尼苏达大学教授David Samuels。过去五年的影响因子为4.262，在176个政治科学类期刊中排名第12。
期刊研究领域和收录范围包括：比较政治学理论研究、全球比较政治学研究、国内比较政治学研究等。
PART 2
期刊目录
State Dependency and the Limits of Middle Class Support for Democracy
国家依赖与中产阶级支持民主的局限性
Borders of Compassion: Immigration Preferences and Parochial Altruism
同情心的界限：移民偏好和狭隘的利他主义
Political Corruption Cycles: High-Frequency Evidence from Argentina’s Notebooks Scandal
政治腐败的周期：阿根廷“贪腐笔记本丑闻”的高频证据
Leftist Insurgency in Democracies
民主国家的左派叛乱
Intelligence Capacity and Mass Violence: Evidence From Indonesia
情报能力和大规模暴力：源自印度尼西亚的证据
Why Monarchy? The Rise and Demise of a Regime Type
为何实施君主制？一类政权的兴衰
Election Administration, Resource Allocation, and Turnout: Evidence From Kenya
选举管理、资源分配及投票率：来自肯尼亚的证据
Status-quo or Grievance Coalitions: The Logic of Cross-ethnic Campaign Appeals in Africa’s Highly Diverse States
（维持）现状者与者诉苦者联盟：非洲高度多元化国家跨族裔竞选诉求的逻辑
Strangers in Hostile Lands: Exposure to Refugees and Right-Wing Support in Germany’s Eastern Regions
敌对土地上的陌生人：德国东部地区的难民接触与右翼支持
PART 3
精选译文
01 国家依赖与中产阶级民主支持的局限性
【题目】
State Dependency and the Limits of Middle Class Support for Democracy
【作者】
Bryn Rosenfeld
【摘要】
长期以来，学者们将中产阶级视为民主化的推动者。本文首次对中产阶级的政权偏好进行了全面细致的跨国分析，并系统性地研究了威权国家与中产阶级之间经济关系的重要性。通过分析27个后共产主义时期国家的个人就业史的详细调查数据，我认为在威权政权下，国家部门设立的职位会降低民众（尤其是中产阶级的专业人士群体）对民主的支持。本文对中产阶级及民主支持的衡量标准的变化所得结果稳健。与此同时，无论是选择性偏差、回应性偏差、再分配偏好、还是共产主义社会化或制度转型的经历，都无法解释所得结果。本文的研究表明，受到国家扶持的中产阶级实际上可能会推迟民主化的发生。
Scholars have long viewed the middle class as an agent of democratization. This article provides the first rigorous cross-national analysis of middle class regime preferences, systematically investigating the importance of an authoritarian state’s economic relationship with the middle class. Using detailed survey data on individual employment histories from 27 post-communist countries, I show that, under autocracy, state-sector careers diminish support for democracy, especially among middle class professionals. The results are robust to changes in the measurement of both the middle class and democracy support. I also show that neither selection nor response bias, redistributive preferences, communist socialization, or transition experiences can explain the results. The findings imply that a state-supported middle class may, in fact, delay democratization.
02 同情心的界限：对于移民的偏好和狭隘的利他主义
【题目】
Borders of Compassion: Immigration Preferences and Parochial Altruism
【作者】
Alexander Kustov
【摘要】
现有的“利己主义”或“歧视”的构架难以解释受教育程度较高并支持种族平等主义的选民为何呈现出反移民倾向。我以一种地方性利他主义的理论来解决这一难题：选民有动机在付出一定代价的情况下帮助他人，但他们会选择优先帮助自己的同胞。我提出了如下假设，地方性利他主义者，换言之， “民族主义”与“利他主义”倾向皆强的选民会更支持被认为是符合国家利益的移民限制政策。然而，当移民对他们的同胞有利时，地方性利他主义者也会更支持引入移民。我通过分析一项英国的人口调查来检验我的理论，并使用了一种新颖的测量方法来评估人们的偏好，发现大多数向国内而非全球慈善机构捐款的利他主义者与从不捐款的利己主义者一样反对移民。与此同时，我进行了一项联合分析实验，结果发现，当新政策有利于选民的同胞时，他们会支持引进移民。
Anti-immigration preferences among educated and racially egalitarian voters is hard to explain using existing frameworks of self-interest or prejudice. I address this puzzle by developing a theory of parochial altruism, which stipulates that voters are motivated to help others at a cost, but they prioritize helping compatriots. I hypothesize that parochial altruists or voters high in both “nationalism” and “altruism” are more supportive of immigration restrictions perceived to be in the national interest. However, parochial altruists are also expected to be more supportive of increasing immigration when it benefits their compatriots. I test my theory by conducting a population-based UK survey. Using a novel measure of elicited preferences, I first find most altruists who donate to domestic rather than global charities are as anti-immigration as egoists who do not donate at all. Using a conjoint experiment, I then show voters support increasing immigration when these alternative policies benefit their compatriots.
03 政治腐败的周期：来自阿根廷“贪腐笔记本丑闻”的高频数据的证据
【题目】
Political Corruption Cycles: High-Frequency Evidence from Argentina’s Notebooks Scandal
【作者】
Valentín Figueroa
【摘要】
本文通过对阿根廷一高级官僚组织于 2009 年至 2015 年期间如何收受贿赂并交付给政党领导人的日常记录进行高精度的分析，在全国选举前后的短暂时间段里发现了政治腐败的周期。在选举前两周内，官僚平均多收约35万美元的贿赂，并且向政客交付现金的可能性比选举后两周内高9.6个百分点。这些结果难以从民主问责制理论的角度作出解释，因为根据民主责任制理论的预测，腐败应该随着选举的临近而减少。但从另一角度，比如将资助政治开支视为激励腐败的因素时，腐败随着选举的临近而增加则显得更为顺理成章。本文的研究结果表明，腐败背后的动机往往是为了推进政治目标，而不是为了个人致富，而竞争性选举以一种比传统所认为的更为复杂的方式形成了腐败的激励机制。
Exploiting daily records documenting how an organization of high-level bureaucrats in Argentina collected bribes and delivered them to party leaders from 2009 to 2015, I detect with unprecedented accuracy a political corruption cycle in narrow temporal windows around national elections. Bureaucrats, on average, collected about $350 thousand more in bribes and were 9.6 percentage points more likely to deliver cash to politicians on days within two weeks before elections than within two weeks after elections. These results are puzzling from the perspective of theories of democratic accountability, which predict that corruption should decrease with electoral proximity, but follow naturally when the factor motivating corruption is the need to finance political expenses. This article’s findings confirm that the motivation behind corruption is often to advance political goals rather than personal enrichment, and that competitive elections shape incentives for corruption in more complex ways than traditionally thought.
04 民主国家的左派叛乱
【题目】
Leftist Insurgency in Democracies
【作者】
Paul Staniland
【摘要】
左派叛乱是1945年以来内战的主要形式之一。现有的革命研究将左派运动与威权主义或阻碍民主化联系起来。但此类研究忽略了一些民主国家左派运动的原因。本文基于数个民主政权内发生的左派暴动，从理论上分析了这种独特的内战形式的根源，认为民主塑造了这些叛乱发生的方式。民主是一把双刃剑，它同时既阻碍了革命联盟的出现又引发了左派内部的分裂，最终滋生激进的冲突。因此，左派叛乱可能在 "吸纳窗口期"出现，在分裂的左派内部引发因选举吸纳产生纠纷。本文以实证方式研究了1945年以来南亚地区专制和民主制度下所有的左派运动实例，以及一系列未爆发成为激进冲突的案例。本文为理解各种革命动员提供了一个新的方向，强调了意识形态、左派内部的辩论以及民主对于此类冲突的多方面影响。
Leftist insurgency has been a major form of civil war since 1945. Existing research on revolution has linked leftist rebellions to authoritarianism or blocked democratization. This research overlooks the onset of leftist insurgencies in a number of democracies. This paper theorizes the roots of this distinctive form of civil war, arguing that democracy shapes how these insurgencies begin, acting as a double-edged sword that simultaneously blocks the emergence of a revolutionary coalition and triggers intra-left splits that breed radical splinters. Leftist revolts can thus emerge during “incorporation windows” that trigger disputes within a divided left over electoral co-optation. Empirically, the paper studies all cases of leftist insurgency in southern Asia since 1945, under both autocracy and democracy, as well as a set of non-onset cases. It offers a new direction for understanding varieties of revolutionary mobilization, highlighting ideology, intra-left debate, and the multi-faceted effects of democracy on conflict.
05 情报能力和大规模暴力：源自印度尼西亚的证据
【题目】
Intelligence Capacity and Mass Violence: Evidence From Indonesia
【作者】
Mark Winward
【摘要】
如何解释大规模针对性暴力事件的频率及形式上的区域差异？本文提出了一种理论，通过过程追踪对该理论进行检验以回答以上问题。我对1965-66年印尼大屠杀期间中部爪哇地区进行了过程追踪，发现差异源于国家情报能力：情报能力低下会迫使部队依赖民间精英来获取信息，由此为民间精英提供了扩大目标群体的机会，进而增加了受害者的数量。由于运筹能力方面的限制，安全部队在情报能力低下时也更有可能选择致命性的暴力，因为照顾如此众多的被拘者需要耗费更多的精力。我通过比较西爪哇省和东爪哇省的情况进一步说明了这些发现。本项目中的数据来自外交档案、内部军事出版物以及对印度尼西亚大屠杀事件的受害者和参与者的一系列访谈。
What explains regional variations in the frequency and form of mass categorical violence? I first develop then test, via process tracing, a theory to answer this question. Employing process tracing in Central Java during the 1965–66 Indonesian Killings, I argue that these variations are conditioned by state intelligence capacity. Low intelligence capacity forces troops to rely upon civilian elites for information. This provides opportunities for civilian elites to widen targeting criteria, increasing the number of victims. Due to logistical constraints, security forces are also more likely to opt for lethal violence when they have low intelligence capacity, as they frequently struggle with caring for such large numbers of detainees. I further illustrate these findings by comparing the provinces of West Java and East Java. Data for this project is drawn from diplomatic archives, internal military publications, and a series of interviews with victims and participants in the Indonesian Killings.
06 为何实施君主制？一种政权的兴衰
【题目】
Why Monarchy? The Rise and Demise of a Regime Type
【作者】
John Gerring, Tore Wig, Wouter Veenendaal, Daniel Weitzel, Jan Teorell, Kyosuke Kikuta
【摘要】
君主制是前现代时期的主要统治形式，直至今日，仍有少数国家延续了君主制度。本文对君主制的兴衰提出了统一的理论解释。具体来说，我们认为，针对根本性的秩序问题（社会规模大且公民之间相互隔绝所致的协调困难的情况），君主制是一个有效的解决方案。但是当沟通成本下降、公民之间协调更容易时，其效率将会受到其他选择领导者方式的挑战。与此同时，我们认为这也解释了君主制在前现代世界中的主导地位和后期的衰落。为了检验这一理论，我们对欧洲（回溯到1100年）和世界（回溯到1700年）的君主国和共和国进行编码，制作了一个原始数据集。通过分析该数据集，我们检验了多项理论观察结果，主要集中在领土规模、政治稳定性、任期、冲突以及大众传播在现代的作用。
Monarchy was the dominant form of rule in the pre-modern era and it persists in a handful of countries. We propose a unified theoretical explanation for its rise and decline. Specifically, we argue that monarchy offers an efficient solution to the primordial problem of order where societies are large and citizens isolated from each other and hence have difficulty coordinating. Its efficiency is challenged by other methods of leadership selection when communication costs decline, lowering barriers to citizen coordination. This explains its dominance in the pre-modern world and its subsequent demise. To test this theory, we produce an original dataset that codes monarchies and republics in Europe (back to 1100) and the world (back to 1700). With this dataset, we test a number of observable implications of the theory—centering on territory size, political stability, tenure in office, conflict, and the role of mass communications in the modern era.
07 选举管理、资源分配与投票率：来自肯尼亚的证据
【题目】
Election Administration, Resource Allocation, and Turnout: Evidence From Kenya
【作者】
J. Andrew Harris
【摘要】
关于如何组织与举行选举的决策会影响政治参与。政策选择可能导致选举资源分配不均，因而出现投票结果偏态。在选举能力及资源稀缺且决策高度集中的中低收入国家，选举管理有可能大幅影响选举结果。我们研究了肯尼亚2017年8月选举中一项立法门槛的的影响，该门槛决定了投票中心通过减少选举日的排队人数来快速服务选民的能力。通过使用断点回归设计，我发现接近但低于门槛的拥堵的投票场所的投票率比高于门槛的投票场所的投票率低百分之二点四。由于支持在任总统的地区比起支持反对派的地区获得了更多的投票资源，与其他假定的门槛相比，已选定的门槛对在任总统更为有利。本文研究结果展示了选举资源分配如何影响政治行为和选举结果。
Decisions about how to organize and run an election can shape political participation. Policy choices may distribute election resources unequally, skewing voting outcomes. In low- and middle-income countries where electoral capacity and resources are scarce and decision-making highly centralized, election administration has the potential to shape results on a large scale. In the context of Kenya’s August 2017 elections, I study the consequences of a legislated threshold that determines the capacity of polling centers to quickly serve voters by reducing election-day lines. Using a regression discontinuity design, I find that turnout is 2.4% lower in congested polling places just below the threshold relative to polling places above the threshold. Relative to other hypothetical thresholds, the chosen threshold benefits the incumbent president, as incumbent strongholds receive more polling resources than opposition areas. The results demonstrate how electoral resource allocation shapes political behavior and election outcomes.
08 （维持）现状者与者诉苦者联盟：非洲高度多元的国家跨族裔竞选诉求的逻辑
【题目】
Status-quo or Grievance Coalitions: The Logic of Cross-ethnic Campaign Appeals in Africa’s Highly Diverse States
【作者】
Elena Gadjanova
【摘要】
本文解释了非洲高度多元化的国家中，当总统候选人自身具有明确显著的族裔身份，但仍需要更广泛的支持才能赢得选举时，他们会如何跨越族裔界限为自己拉票。与目前已有的理论不同，我认为选举活动更多是自下向上的，并以突出身份显著性为导向。本文通过分析加纳、肯尼亚与乌干达的竞选诉求的自采数据以及对加纳和肯尼亚的政党战略家和竞选者的采访，说明了总统候选人跨民族宣传的明确模式。在族裔身份显著的地方，在任总统通过提供物质激励和有针对性的转移重点以安抚支持者，而反对派通过煽动不满情绪以分裂在任者的联盟，其他人则希望通过强调团结和价值观来分一杯胜者之羹。本研究有助于我们更好地了解非洲政党的动员策略，并进一步解释了在多元社会的选举中，族裔发生分裂及政治化的过程。
This paper explains how presidential candidates in Africa’s highly diverse states appeal across ethnic lines when ethnic identities are salient, but broader support is needed to win elections. I argue that election campaigns are much more bottom-up and salience-oriented than current theories allow and draw on the analysis of custom data of campaign appeals in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda, as well as interviews with party strategists and campaign operatives in Ghana and Kenya to demonstrate clear patterns in presidential candidates’ cross-ethnic outreach. Where ethnic salience is high, incumbents offer material incentives and targeted transfers to placate supporters, challengers fan grievances to split incumbents’ coalitions, and also-rans stress unity and valence issues in the hope of joining the winner. The research contributes to our understanding of parties’ mobilization strategies in Africa and further clarifies where and how ethnic divisions are politicized in elections in plural societies.
09 敌对土地上的陌生人：德国东部地区的难民接触与右翼支持
【题目】
Strangers in Hostile Lands: Exposure to Refugees and Right-Wing Support in Germany’s Eastern Regions
【作者】
Max Schaub, Johanna Gereke, Delia Baldassarri
【摘要】
与难民的近距离接触是否会增加民众对右翼的支持？本文研究了一个独特的地域案例来回应这一问题：在欧洲难民危机期间，许多难民被分配到德国东部的农村腹地。与其他地方的非城市地区类似，在难民到来之前，该地区的民众鲜少接触外国人，并在政治上有明显的右翼倾向。我们的数据包括选举结果、个人层面的调查和行为测量数据。我们通过一项经过严格的行政规则和匹配程序检验的难民分配政策进行了因果识别。我们的测量数据证明了反移民情绪广泛存在。然而，此类情绪并不受到受访者家乡是否有难民的影响：平均而言，我们记录的所有结果均为无效；但是，我们认为结果支持从社交性的角度来分析移民态度。在这些总体上的无效结果之下，我们观察到了态度的趋同：与难民的接触似乎将地方民众中右倾与左倾的个人皆推向了中间。
Does local exposure to refugees increase right-wing support? This paper studies a case uniquely suited to address this question: the allocation of refugees to the rural hinterlands of eastern Germany during the European refugee crisis. Similar to non-urban regions elsewhere, the area has had minimal previous exposure to foreigners, but distinctively leans towards the political right. Our data comprise electoral outcomes, and individual-level survey and behavioral measures. A policy allocating refugees following strict administrative rules and a matching procedure allow for causal identification. Our measurements confirm the presence of widespread anti-immigrant sentiments. However, these are unaffected by the presence of refugees in respondents’ hometowns: on average, we record null effects for all outcomes, which we interpret as supporting a sociotropic perspective on immigration attitudes. Masked by these overall null findings, we observe convergence: local exposure to refugees appears to have pulled both right- and left-leaning individuals more towards the center.
翻 译：宋文佳 欧阳博雅
校 对：宋文佳 欧阳博雅
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编辑：余亚维
一审：刘博涵
二审：袁 丁
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